How to use Moving averages like a Pro.👇

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"90% of the traders lose money, But do they lose it all the time?"

Most of them do make money, its just that they give it all back.

Lets analyze why and how a trader makes and loses money
[Thread]:

Below is the equity curve which is most traders dream.

This is equity curve of an average trader:

Most traders do make money, but they give it back to the markets .

Because of trading errors.

What are trading errors?

Trading errors are those errors which happen because of wrong Position sizing, Leverage , etc.

I am not making this up, check your P&L, 90 % of your losses would have come from less then 10% trades.

Most of these happen because of No knowledge, No plan, bad position sizing .

Now, we know what's the problem, lets talk about the solution.

1. Learn the Basics first-

If you don’t get the basics clear then how can you make money?

Learn How to use Support and resistances
Learn How to use trend lines
Learn about trend, it will solve 90% of your problem

How even after knowing everything about your work, a series of emotional judgments can place you in a difficult situation.

A thread on how loss Aversion causes us to take irrational decisions-

An experiment by professor Bazerman of Harvard.

On the first day of class, Professor Bazerman announces a game that seems innocuous enough. Waving a twenty-dollar bill in the air, he offers it up for auction.

Everybody is free to bid; there are only two rules. The first is that bids are to be made in $1 increments. The second rule 30 The Swamp of Commitment is a little trickier.

The winner of the auction, of course, wins the bill. But the runner-up must still honor his or her bid,

while receiving nothing in return.

In other words,this is a situation where second best finishes last. Indeed, at the beginning of the auction, as people sniff out an opportunity to get a $20 bill for a bargain, the hands quickly shoot up, and the auction is officially under way

A flurry of bids follows. As Bazerman described it, "The pattern is always the same. The bidding starts out fast and furious until it reaches the $12 to $16 range." At this point,

Objectivity- Undistorted by emotions or personal bias.

What is objective Trading?

Trading in which decisions are taken on pre-decide rules, decisions in objective trading are not decided by Feelings or opinions.

What is subjective trading?

It is discretionary trading, in which one uses his intuitions and Analysis to take trading decisions.

Is one superior to other?

The rules in a mechanical system are going to be decided by you, the plan is going to be made by you,

the positions sizing and all other aspects are going to be made by you.

So your psychology is going to filter the information coming towards you, even in a mechanical system as well as in discretion.

WHATS THE USE OF OBJECTIVITY-

I am a Discretionary - Rule based trader.

So, I take trades based on my analysis, my entries are discretion based, but the exits , position sizing and Risk management rules are pre decided.

WHY USE SUBJECTIVE TRADING?

The biggest benefit that objective trading do is that it makes the chances of you thinking less during the time of taking an execution decision.

As a beginner trader you will not have much experience, and you will inevitably do a lot of mistakes.

A thread on Risk and Returns

Trader X -

Net-worth - 5 Cr
Trading capital - 25 lakh

Trader Y -

Net-worth - 30 lakh
Trading capital - 25 lakh

Trader X take risk of 2% per trade and he makes about 30-40 % Return on trading capital per month,

Whereas Trader Y only risk 0.25% per trade and he makes about 3-4 % on Trading capital per month.

Trader Y saw how much trader X is making with the same amount of capital that he has.

He is frustrated with his mediocre results as compared to Trader X, though he don’t know the fact that Trader X Is only trading with 5 % of his total net worth.

Trader X has much more risk taking ability in Rupee terms as compared to the Trader Y because he has higher net-worth.

Trader X will not have much impact when he goes into deep Drawdowns , 40-50% where as if the Trader Y goes below 15% DD , it will have deep psychological impact on him.

Even if the Trader X makes 100% return on his trading capital , turns 25 lakh into 50 lakhs ,

Position sizing is most important aspect of system development, which makes a big difference in your returns.

Thread on Position sizing strategies-

Money management is not any of the following-

• It does not tell you how much you will lose on a trade.
• It does not tell you when to exit.
• It is not risk control.
• It is not risk avoidance.

What is Position sizing-

1. Position sizing is that par of your trading system that answers the question "HOW MUCH" throughout the course of the trade,

• It tells you how big a position you should have at a given time when you are in a trade.

• This 'How much' makes a whole lot of difference in a trader's performance.

* Position sizing strategies-

* There are two basic position sizing strategies -
• Martingale
• Anti-Martingale.

1. Martingale strategies increase one's bet when equity decreases.

2. Anti-martingale strategies increase one's bet when equity increases.

Casinos love people who uses Martingale strategies.

Lets see an example of Roulette where one uses the martingale strategy and double the bet every time he loses-

Few #Patterns to master.

Disc* Found on internet.

Why 52w/ LTH stocks have no price targets...

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

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VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

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After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

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Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

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I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

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