👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context
Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?
One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.
The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.
For acquisition loops, I go through a number of different models. SEO+UGC, Viral, and Paid marketing.
In the deck, I break down how to get more granular on each step, and case studies for how to optimize the loop.d
From a metrics standpoint, it's important to analyze the acquisition mix, the quality of the signups, and the platform dependencies. In the deck, I talk through a bunch of the red flags I'm looking for.
I go through the same discussion for the Engagement Loop too. Examples, Upside, Metrics, and Forecasting.
Two kinds of engagement loops- Social Feedback and Content Personalization. There's obviously many others, but these are two that are particularly useful to think about.
I use examples from Pinterest, Twitter, and Uber. Both increasing the activation of users to get them pinning more, how to build a network, and unblocking users who've lost their password.
From a metrics perspective on engagement loops, I'll look at cohort retention curves, frequency analyses, and analyzing notifications too. I don't mention it, but the Power User Curve is important too: https://t.co/kdgO8PIspq
Once you have the Acquisition and Engagement Loops mapped out, and the potential upside, then you can build a forecast for MAUs. This lets you answer the questions you want to answer - where will this curve go?
Hope you enjoy the deck! Again, here's the link:
https://t.co/Kp7YSHTTs6
Thank you @bbalfour @ShaunMClowes @onecaseman @bubba @aatif_awan and the other folks who helped me along the way.

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From day 1, I intended to build @shoutoutso_ in public, and part of it is to be transparent with numbers, talk openly about our highs and lows, and share lessons as we grow!

I have been doing individual posts on numbers every week so wanted to one big thread with all updates 👇🏽

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I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

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Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.