@buzz_chronicles save as startups

Yesterday, I wrote about how easy it is to sell ice cream on a crowded beach: https://t.co/a9z2ZTixb7

Today, I’m at the local fair.

There are hundreds of vendors.

But there are also huge crowds who are hot and thirsty; lots of demand for cold drinks!

Go where the crowds are!

Again, this is just a metaphor!

But it’s a good reminder:

🍋 If you have a lemonade stand, it’s better to go somewhere hot, where there are a lot of thirsty people.

💻 If you want to make software, it’s better to go where there are a bunch of potential customers.

BTW - targeting a good market doesn’t mean you’ll automatically win!

There are a TON of factors that influence a business’ success (or failure).

But choosing a market that has a lot of demand (and good channels) is essential for future success.

In business, nothing is guaranteed.

You might be in a good market today, but tomorrow it could fall apart.

Markets are fickle.

Some days they want 🍦, other days they want 🥤.

The economy can go up, or it can crash.

A good competitor can come in and grab market share.

But this reinforces the point:

“Business is already hard, why make it harder?” – @asmartbear

Why try to enter a niche where there’s no demonstrable demand?

Why try to serve a total addressable market of 500, when you could go after 500,000 potential customers?

👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!

This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?

One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.

The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.

Saturday thoughts on funding: Where it helps. Where it doesn't. And how it affects team, success, and PM fit.

This is just my $0.02 after looking reviewing 30k+ early stage startups personally and having led 350+ investments across 2 VC firms & as an angel.

Let's begin! >>

1) Money is great to have in building a startup (for the least dilution and pain possible) That's true and always will be true. 😆

But just like how money can't buy you happiness, it also can't buy you PM fit.

2) PM fit is the holy grail for software startups. (we're not talking biotech - if you have a cure to cancer, I guarantee you everyone wants it).

But for software startups, it's unclear if ppl want your product at your price pt.

3) If you don't find PM fit, in this day and age, you will be able to get some sales. Maybe even say $1m in sales (or more!) per year, and you can still make a living.

But having sales does not mean that you have a repeatable customer acquisition process that can be sustainable

4) As an aside, that is why we invest at pre-seed & don't care about startup traction, because I don't believe traction at the earliest stages suggest PM fit. Traction only shows that a founder can execute (& that's impt too) but there are other ways to assess execution earlier.