Solara Active Pharma Science con call was today at 3:30 PM.

@Gautam__Baid @unseenvalue @drprashantmish6 @rdkriplani

Here are the key takeaways of the call. 👇🧵

Roadmap for Ethanol blending In India 2020-25:

Decoding the opportunities in Ethanol Blending in India and how certain sector can benefit out of it.

Retweet for maximum reach to spread knowledge. 🙏🙏

🧵👇

Data-facts:
• 98% of India fuel requirement in road transportation is met through fossil fuel.
• Bio fuels only consist about 2% of use for road transportation.

• Ethanol is the important part of biofuel. It is naturally produced from fermentation of sugar by years or via petrochemical process such as ethylene hydration.
• Combined ethanol distillation capacity of India is 684 crore litres

There are different types of Ethanol variants:
1. E-10: In this, 90% of usage is gasoline & 10% Ethanol.
2. E-10 is maximum used in India.
E-20:
3. In this, 80% of usage is gasoline & 20% Ethanol.

The calorific value of ethanol is around 2/3rd of gasoline

Recent Target Improvements:

• National Policy for Biofuel has increased the target of Ethanol Blending to 20% from 10%
• With low quantity around 50% of petrol sold is E10 blended & rest is unblended(E0).
• Current level of Ethanol blending is ~7-8%, & 10% is expected by 2022

Zurich axioms - A book on Risk taking, by Max Gunther

@safiranand @jposhaughnessy @Vivek_Investor @BalakrishnanR @Covel @shyamsek @_anshulkhare

#investing
#Bookthread 👇🧵

Switzerland, a country with no strategic or geographical advantage, became the world’s banker by learning how to manage risk and facing it head on.

Zurich axioms are simple rules in order to learn about betting to win.

The First Major Axiom:
ON RISK

- Life is an adventure. In order to experience life to its full potential one has to take meaningful risk.. All Investments are speculation. Some people accept it. some don’t.
Always play for meaningful stakes.

- An investment with a small stake would not incur significant loss but will not generate any significant gain too. It should also not be so huge that loss would bankrupt a person.

- Resist the allure of diversification. The more one diversifies, the smaller the speculation gets. Through diversification all the losses and gains are likely to cancel out and no sizable difference is made.

Aarti Drugs conducted their earnings con-call today at 4:00 PM

"Target of 4500+ cr topiline till 2025"

@unseenvalue @darshanvmehta1 @sonalbhutra @Milind4profits

Here are the key highlights 😀👇

Business Updates:
• 66.87% of revenue came from Export Market.
• Around 66% of the growth is driven by volume.
• Formulation segment grow at 5%.
• Ramping up R&D facility both for API and formulation.
• CAPEX previously planned has been in inline.

Price in API:
• In September price has gone and has stabilize and after that the price is stable.
• As per current market scenario, mgmt expects 19-20% is doable, but its still not a new normal.

CAPEX:
• Current API capacity revenue of additional 25%.
• Brown Facility and new green facility will be the main growth driver for the next 3-5 years, in order to achieve revenue target of 4,500+ cr in next 4-5 year.
• 40cr will go in this Q.
• Green field start in next year

PLI:
• Company have applied for few products, and company expects one molecule to get but this will be announced in April. This product is for capital consumption (of around 60-65 cr), and 60-65 cr will external sales.
• This will have CAPEX of 120 crores.

Jyothy Labs conducted their earnings con-call today at 3:00 PM

Here are the key highlights 😀👇

@drprashantmish6 @unseenvalue @proxy_investor @deepakshenoy

#concall

Sector Trend:
• Strong demand in Homecare and healthcare
• Institutional business has gradual comeback and now near to pre-covid level
• New launches: Exo All Surface Cleaner launched in South of India
• Media spent increased for more growth
• Market share has been improved

Business: Updates:
• A&P spend increased with growth in business segment.
• Segmental performance in image.
• Due to lower other expenses the EBIDA margins have seen growth insipte of increase in adv. cost.

Business segment:
• Mainwash segment has started doing better.
• Postwash segment is still constrain as school and office are closed. However there is gradual growth.
• Dishwash segment remain robust and company continuous to see good growth over diswash.

Sales Growth:
• Higher utlization has been helping in decreasing the cost.
• Sales force with higher utlization reduces per cost, hence increase in margin.
• Increase in price has very little part.
• Company has current guidance of same margins of around 14-15%.

I recently submitted my PhD dissertation titled "Illiberalism Beyond Borders. Dissecting Russian and Turkish External Influence in Bosnia and Georgia" at @FU_Berlin. Interested in what I found? Read this thread ⬇️

To begin with, I hypothesise that illiberal external influence (IEX) is more likely to contribute to the contestation of #democracy in a given polity when it appears in the context of a favorable domestic environment and the absence of liberal external counterpressure.

I particularly scrutinise the role of domestic elites in facilitating/obstructing IEX, based on findings by J. Tolstrup, @otansey, R. Vanderhill et al. I also look at how liberal ext. counterpressure can help prevent a major contribution of IEX to the contestation of #democracy.

Between 2016-2018, I conducted 95 interviews in #Tbilisi, #Moscow, #Sarajevo & #BanjaLuka (thx to all interlocutors!). Given the increasingly unfree environment in Turkey, I didn't dare to make a trip to Ankara, but talked to local experts about Turkish IEX in BiH & Georgia.

In #Bosnia, #Ankara has engaged in illiberal sponsorship of the Party of Democratic Action for many years. However, in both Bosnia and #Georgia, Ankara mostly exerted illiberal external influence after the 2016 coup attempt, following which it exerted pressure on the rule of law.

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Binomial Thinking.

The future is always uncertain. There are many different ways it can unfold -- some more likely than others. Binomial thinking helps us embrace this view.

2/

The S&P 500 index is at ~3768 today.

Suppose we want to predict where it will be 10 years from now.

Historically, we know that this index has returned ~10% per year.

If we simply extrapolate this, we get an estimate of ~9773 for the index 10 years from now:

3/

What we just did is called a "point estimate" -- a prediction about the future that's a single number (9773).

But of course, we know the future is uncertain. It's impossible to predict it so precisely.

So, there's a sense of *false precision* in point estimates like this.

4/

To emphasize the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a better approach is to predict a *range* of values rather than a single number.

For example, we may say the index will return somewhere in the *range* of 8% to 12% (instead of a fixed 10%) per year.

5/

10 years from now, this implies an index value in the *range* [8135, 11703]:

Let's talk about Avi Loeb and his theory about alien

First, I should disclose that I work at the fame research facility as Dr. Loeb, though I work in a different department and to my recollection we've never met.

He's a scientist; I'm in computer support.

With that out of the way...
The interview above is worth a read, and a lot of serious thought, because there's an idea there that's really critical to science, and it isn't whether or not aliens have visited (exactly).

It's about how fashion and culture and taboo have an unfortunately strong effect on science.

In particular he compares his theory on alien visitation with the multiverse theory.

Which of these is more deserving of ridicule?

Science is fundamentally a structure for forming hypotheses and then (critically) testing these hypotheses to see if they should be kept, rejected, or modified.