Zurich axioms are simple rules in order to learn about betting to win.
Zurich axioms - A book on Risk taking, by Max Gunther
@safiranand @jposhaughnessy @Vivek_Investor @BalakrishnanR @Covel @shyamsek @_anshulkhare
#investing
#Bookthread 👇🧵
Zurich axioms are simple rules in order to learn about betting to win.
ON RISK
- Life is an adventure. In order to experience life to its full potential one has to take meaningful risk.. All Investments are speculation. Some people accept it. some don’t.
Always play for meaningful stakes.
ON GREED
- One must take profits soon. Long winning streaks are rare and short ones are vastly common One doesn’t know how long a winning streak will continue. Averages overwhelmingly favor the ones who quit early.
- One must decide in advance how much gain one wants from a venture & when one gets it, square off the position.
- One way to reinforce the ending of a streak is to buy some kind of a reward from the gain.
ON HOPE
- When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump.
- Knowing how to get out of the bad situation takes courage and a sense of honesty. A Professional speculator studies how he will save himself when things fall.
- Accept small losses cheerfully. Taking small losses is a much better way to protect oneself from the big one. Don’t sit on a sinking ship.
ON FORECAST
- Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.
- No one knows what's gonna happen in the future, great speculators don't listen to the forecasts.
On PATTERNS
- Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
World of money is a patternless disorder and utter chaos. Humans have a nature of keeping things in order, eg. unwarranted belief that history repeats itself.
ON MOBILITY
- Avoid putting down Roots. They impede motion. Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia. It is a mistake to let oneself get too attached to businesses in which capital is invested.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.
- Preserve mobility, be ready to jump away from trouble and seize the opportunities quickly.
- All the moves should be made only after careful assessment of the odds for and odds against. When a venture is clearly souring one must sever those roots and go.
ON INTUITION
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained. A hunch is a mental event that feels something like knowledge but doesn't feel perfectly trustworthy.
- One is likely to be hit by hunches frequently. Learn to use them.
- When a hunch hits, ask whether a big enough library of data could exist in mind to have generated that hunch. Never lean on hunches too hard.
ON RELIGION AND THE OCCULT
- It is unlikely that God's plan for the universe includes making one rich. Sometimes occult beliefs can get in the way of sound speculative thinking. Leaning on such beliefs may not be hazardous to health, but it is to money.
ON OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how to handle the worst. Never make a move solely on optimism. In poker, if a pro arrives at a situation where the odds say he shouldn’t bet then he doesn’t.
- Optimism feels much better than pessimism. It has a hypnotic allure. That’s why bulls outnumbers bears.
- Optimism leads to the ventures with no exits and when there is an exit, it persuades to not to use it.
ON CONSENSUS
- Majority opinions are probably wrong. One should try to come to his own conclusion.
- Never follow speculative fads. Unseen pressure of the majority can not only dislodge a good hunch but can also create doubts on one’s judgments.
- Various entities like brokers and people giving hot tips can constantly bombard an active speculator to buy whatever the majority is buying.
ON STUBBORNNESS
- One must defeat the emotion of perseverance when it is leading one astray.
- Perseverance is not a good idea for speculators. One must persevere to learn, improve and grow rich.
- Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down. Don’t hold your investments in the spirit of stubbornness.
- Value the freedom to choose investments on their merits alone.
More from The Tycoon Mindset
More from Book
People have wondered why I have spent 3 days mostly pushing back on this idea that "defund the police" is bad marketing.
The reason is, it's an example of this magic trick, the oldest trick in the book.
It's a competition between what I call compass statements. And it matters.
There are a lot of people who think "defund the police" is a bad slogan.
But it's a directional intention. A compass statement.
The real effect of calling it a bad slogan, whether or not intentional (but usually intentional), is to reduce a compass statement down to a slogan.
Whenever there is a real problem and a clear solution, there will be people who benefit from the problem and therefore oppose the solution in a variety of ways.
And this is true of any real problem, not just the problem of lawless militarized white supremacist police.
There are people who oppose it directly using a wide variety of tactics, one of which is misconstruing anything—quite literally anything—said by those who propose solutions—any solutions.
They'd appreciate it if you mistake their deliberate misrepresentation for confusion.
The reason they'd appreciate if if you mistake their deliberate misrepresentation for confusion is, it wastes time that could have been spend on the solution trying to persuade them, with different arguments and metaphors or solutions.
Which they intend to misconstrue.
The reason is, it's an example of this magic trick, the oldest trick in the book.
It's a competition between what I call compass statements. And it matters.
There\u2019s a magic trick that\u2019s going to get played on us every day during the 2020 election cycle. It\u2019s a fairly simple trick, once you see it.
— A.R. Moxon (@JuliusGoat) February 17, 2019
I\u2019d like to talk about leadership and governance.
And the compass, the navigation, the travel, and the corrections.
(thread)
There are a lot of people who think "defund the police" is a bad slogan.
But it's a directional intention. A compass statement.
The real effect of calling it a bad slogan, whether or not intentional (but usually intentional), is to reduce a compass statement down to a slogan.
Whenever there is a real problem and a clear solution, there will be people who benefit from the problem and therefore oppose the solution in a variety of ways.
And this is true of any real problem, not just the problem of lawless militarized white supremacist police.
There are people who oppose it directly using a wide variety of tactics, one of which is misconstruing anything—quite literally anything—said by those who propose solutions—any solutions.
They'd appreciate it if you mistake their deliberate misrepresentation for confusion.
The reason they'd appreciate if if you mistake their deliberate misrepresentation for confusion is, it wastes time that could have been spend on the solution trying to persuade them, with different arguments and metaphors or solutions.
Which they intend to misconstrue.
Aboriginal self-government - legal and constitutional issues 1995 Ottawa, Canada- Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples #Metis
Aboriginal self-government - legal and constitutional issues 1995 Ottawa, Canada- Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples- pg141. - papers argues that it is logical and sensible to consider persons of mixed ancestry of all kinds to be within sec. 91(24) jurisdiction and that the
Metis are included within the fiduciary relationship owed by the crown to the Aboriginal peoples. (pg142) The recognition of Metis as one of the "aboriginal peoples of Canada" in section 35 of the Constitution Act 1982, reinforces this federal practice. "It is concluded that
sec 91(24) includes persons of mixed ancestry." pg143- "the Guerin case suggests that the federal gov. may be breaching its fiduciary obligations if it refuses to initiate legislation needed to acknowledge the existence of certain Aboriginal peoples or to meet basic economic
or social needs." https://t.co/90gG3LeCFC -
RELATED CASES AND POSTS
Guerin v. The Queen, [1984] 2 SCR 335
Aboriginal self-government - legal and constitutional issues 1995 Ottawa, Canada- Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples- pg141. - papers argues that it is logical and sensible to consider persons of mixed ancestry of all kinds to be within sec. 91(24) jurisdiction and that the
Metis are included within the fiduciary relationship owed by the crown to the Aboriginal peoples. (pg142) The recognition of Metis as one of the "aboriginal peoples of Canada" in section 35 of the Constitution Act 1982, reinforces this federal practice. "It is concluded that
sec 91(24) includes persons of mixed ancestry." pg143- "the Guerin case suggests that the federal gov. may be breaching its fiduciary obligations if it refuses to initiate legislation needed to acknowledge the existence of certain Aboriginal peoples or to meet basic economic
or social needs." https://t.co/90gG3LeCFC -
RELATED CASES AND POSTS
Guerin v. The Queen, [1984] 2 SCR 335
You May Also Like
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018
This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.
1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!
2) "Repressed memory" syndrome
3) Facilitated Communication [FC]
All 3 led to massive abuse.
"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.
Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.
FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
#ஆதித்தியஹ்ருதயம் ஸ்தோத்திரம்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை
தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு
நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்
இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்
குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை
தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு
நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்
இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்
குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்
