A thread on cumulative FII inflows into India in the CY2020

Background  : This was a widely shared link on social media and also tweeted by FM @nsitharaman amid a lot of discussion around the strong foreign inflows in Indian

India received ~1.6 lakh crore in FII flows last calendar year when most Asian and emerging markets witnessed outflows. This is encouraging stuff one would say. However, this is not the complete story.

The total flows in Secondary markets (Debt + Equity but not including FDI deals in primary markets) are marginally positive. It means as yields collapsed, FIIs switched from Indian debt to Indian equities.

In fact, last 6 CYs (2015-2020) net flow in debt & equity is negligible.

Now one may ask what suddenly changed in 2020. Well, Central banks kept the tap open. That's easy answer.

But still the flows became aggressive only in last two months of 2020 - Nov & Dec

Why in last two months?

Two technical things happened:

(a) MSCI Annual review on Nov 10 brought fresh inflows. This happens every year, so was not

Does increase in Inflation & hence interest rates lead to a fall in equity? While theoretically yes, practically the last 20 years of data shows otherwise

Please ‘re-tweet’ 🧵& help us educate more retail investors

#Investing

Lets start with basic, y does inflation ⬆️?
Most feel bcoz of higher demand & lower supply but that’s nt the only factor. Imagine there is a shortage of laptops wrt the demand, but there is no liquidity in the market (people don’t have monies) will the price of laptop ⬆️? No

So, Inflation takes place because the demand supply situation is accompanied by high liquidity, people have the monies to spend and hence the price goes up. Inflation does not take place only because of the demand supply gap (3/n)

Its RBI’s job to keep inflation under check. What role does RBI play? RBI is comfortable keeping Inflation between 2-6% currently. So if Inflation is increasing, how can RBI control it? Can RBI do anything to demand & supply? Nothing (4/n)

So the only tool available with RBI to control inflation is controlling liquidity. If RBI is able to reduce liquidity in the market, less money will chase the goods and hence Inflation can be expected to stabilize. (5/n)

10 Key Takeaways from the book: The Emotionally Intelligent Investor

1. Investing success does NOT come from ignoring or suppressing emotion. Assuming that you have relevant expertise, disregarding intuition and empathetic feelings because they cannot be explained, is a mistake!

2. Self-awareness is the first and most important step in improving as an investor. An investment approach needs to fit with your unique set of motivations, personality traits, weaknesses, and strengths. Don’t try to be exactly like Warren Buffett if you are not like him!

3. Humans have certain common investing vulnerabilities, but everybody is unique in their susceptibility to them. Consider your weaknesses to be the investing biases and traps to which you are most prone.

4. Because we are constantly changing, introspection should be incorporated into the daily and weekly routines of any investor. Try writing in a trading/Investing journal.

A thread on Trump’s deplatforming and why I think the debate about it reveals the bankruptcy of contemporary free speech law. 1/17

Many of those who approve of the platforms’ decisions to ban Trump argue that current First A law grants speakers no right of access to privately owned property. and conclude that there is no free speech issue here. 2/17

They’re right on the doctrine: the Roberts Court has gone to extraordinary lengths to make clear that private actors enjoy total freedom under the First A to censor whatever speech they like. 3/17

But this wasn’t always the rule. Until the 1970s, the rule was that the First A limited the ability of private owners to exclude speakers from sufficiently important private speech forums. 4/17

And the current rule is a bad one! Today almost all of the important mass public speech forums are privately owned. Do we really want private companies to completely control who gets to speak in these vital public spaces? Surely not. 5/17

#Global #ETF Weekly (thread): 15 Jan 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sector making comeback in 2021 $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #Nigeria, #UAE & #Russia in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $NGE $UAE $ERUS

- Few countries moving in red this week

2/8

#Global #Value #stocks still making short-term recovery, with $IWVL #ETF still looking very strong relatively over the short-term. Over 3yr period it is however still lagging quite substantially.

This should be interesting for this months #OrbisvsSP500 unofficial challenge

3/8

This one is worrying, but then again, it's been for some time. #Global #Tech #stocks relative to #MSCI All Country World Index is definitely creating some concern. Be very careful.

$IXN vs $ACWI

4/8

Know this one might create some controversy, therefore disclaimer 1st. I'm also not positive on #US #Bonds over longer-term. But be careful over short-term as $TLT #ETF relative to $SPY indicate oversold (bonds) &/or overbought (equities) & could see profit taking. #stimulus

5/8

This 👆🏼 could be positive for #Gold. Comparing $GLD (gold price) #ETF with $GDX (#Goldminers), one can see that miners getting close to gold ($/oz). Relative not cheap yet & can still see further weakness. Will do separate tech tweet on GDX later. In short wait for $32.20.

Southampton’s 2019/20 financial results covered a “successful” season when they improved their position in the Premier League from 16th to 11th under manager Ralph Hasenhüttl, but their finances were significantly impacted by COVID-19. Some thoughts follow #SaintsFC

#SaintsFC pre-tax loss widened from £41m to £76m, as revenue fell £23m (15%) from £150m to £127m and profit on player sales decreased £7m from £21m to £14m, while total expenses grew £5m. Loss after tax increased from £34m to £62m.

#SaintsFC £23m revenue fall was driven by broadcasting’s £19m (17%) decrease from £113m to £94m, mainly due to 6 Premier League games being played after 30 June accounts close. Match day was also down £2.6m (15%) to £14.5m, while commercial dipped £1.1m (6%) to £18.7m.

#SaintsFC wage bill fell slightly by £1m (1%) to £114m, while other expenses were £9m (24%) lower at £29m. On the other hand, player amortisation rose £6m (11%) to £57m and there were £10.8m exceptional costs (player impairment £6.4m and onerous contracts £4.4m), up from £2.3m.

#SaintsFC £76m loss before tax is 2nd highest to date in 2019/20 Premier League, only surpassed by #EFC £140m, but better than #THFC £68m and #MUFC £21m. Due to the pandemic, it is likely that other clubs will also post substantial losses when they publish their 19/20 accounts.

Thread on how easy it is to get tricked into haemorrhaging money from your bank account after an online purchase – and why financial regulators seem to be behind the curve on this.🧵💸💻

Forgive the personal story, but I think it's relevant...1/

I’m pretty careful with my money online - regularly checking my pension, combing my online bank statement for suspicious transactions, pruning unwanted subscriptions etc...2/

I’d describe this as financial hygiene – and would advise everyone to do it.

Yet it’s not always enough.

While looking through a list of transactions on my online account before Xmas I noticed a £15 payment to something called "WLY*https://t.co/tSHitonwoT" ...3/

By chance I knew for certain I’d not bought anything on that particular day, so I investigated further.

I downloaded my entire statement for the year and discovered I’d made a payment to this entity for the
same amount every month for 14 months, so £210 in total...4/

I did an online search & found a club called Complete Savings (@completesave), that offers cashback on online purchases in return for £15 a month membership fees.

This is not, to put it mildly, the kind of scheme I would ever knowingly sign up to....5/

Are you excited for our December episode of Kairos?
This time we're exploring 🤹🏽‍♂‍Financial stability 🤹🏽‍♂‍

#‍Financialstability

Missed the trailer? Quick recap:
👨🏽Maran, 48, Public Sector Bank Employee
❓Retire or be financially responsible
👴🏽ailing father
👩🏽‍🎓✈️daughter wants to study abroad
✅⏲️Right time for VRS?

Make guilt-free decisions about your future with a customised ithought #financialplan!

💧=🦸🏽
Liquidity = Power
Make a power move in your forties!
Review your investments and create liquidity with what you already have

But Maran is worried about his family😟😟😟
Who will take care of his father?
How will his daughter manage her #education expenses?
Can his wife repay his home #loan?
There's one thing that can lay Maran's financial worries to rest...

First Chartstravaganza of the year … hoping for a better 2021!

Please comment, like and share. And of course … follow us!

Every Sunday, twenty charts, let’s go.

20. Investment Banking

(@ft)

19. Emerging Markets Flows

(@exantedata)

18. Population Growth

(@wellsfargo)

Just did an assessment of our #health #finances. After a ten-year personal experiment with a health savings account (#HSA) and our employer's high risk insurance option: GOOD CHOICE. I'm definitely not an expert, but if you're curious, here's our experience (a thread):

Our life situation made us right for an HSA. I was single for half the first 5 years, married for the 2nd, when married, both of us on HSA. No children, overall pretty healthy. Here's an article about who an HSA is good for:

I deducted the maximum savings every year from my employer (which I believe was about $6,000). This went into our HSA. For medical expenses, if we had the extra cash, we used it rather than our HSA (as the HSA grows exponentially tax-free, which is a freaking good deal).

Due to the HSA, my hubby and felt free to pursue alternative health care options and therapies that would NOT have been covered under typical medical insurance (invisalign, chiropractor, contact lenses). We ended up skipping or get the cheapest dental/eye coverage.

It also made me think twice about expensive medical procedures: when I had gastro issues several years ago, my doc recommended a colonoscopy. I saw the price & thought, heck, I'm going to try a food elimination diet first. Voila! Problem solved and no need for the procedure.

1/ We have already considered some protocols with their own systems for maintaining token values at the $1 peg. Let’s look at @fraxfinance and speak about the price stability of its token.

Insights of a noob:

10 things I've learned from 18 months in the financial services industry.

👇🧵

1/ The financial industry is set up to extract value from you - the key is to learn how to extract value from it.

2/ An understanding of compounding is essential - it can be your best friend, or your worst enemy.

Negative compounding is a thing, it occurs from the buildup of fees and taxes over time (there is a link to an article which explains this in more detail in point 9).

3/ Behaviour is everything - you are an emotional creature not a robot.

@MavenAdviser summed it up perfectly in a recent podcast, 'financial success takes place between your ears, not on a computer screen'.

4/ Behaviour is everything - familiarise yourself with @behaviourgap.

Over the long term markets do not lose money, however investors do.

A study found that over a 20 year period ‘the average investment return was 11.81%. The average investor return was 4.48%.’

1/ History of the Cabal THREAD

Once things start to be revealed, this may be helpful for you to educate your friends and family. Many of them will likely be very confused and scared. I pulled this information from a couple of drops/posts.

https://t.co/nWSFLFFnte

2/ Regarding A. I'm long $TSLA, believe it isn't a bubble and the naysayers are shortsighted and wrong.

Only time will tell about A, but B we already know - $TSLA joined at an ATH of $695 then fell - but it's now at $763, so it ADDED value, not detracted.

BUT..

3/ But the question of whether $TSLA brings risk to the S&P is WRONG by itself. The whole idea of an INDEX FUND like S&P500 is to be passive, and it's THE ACTIVE MANAGER DECISIONS that introduce risk

Being profitable and large TSLA should have been added ON Q2 EARNINGS.
..

4/ Before we analyze implications, consider this:

DataTrek Research estimates that if on Jan 1 2020 an investor had put $5 of every $100 invested in an S&P 500 ETF into $TSLA, their return by Dec 11 2020 would've increased by roughly 31%!
(more by

5/ But that's hypothetical bc $TSLA didn't qualify for S&P at Jan 2020, and 5% is more than its share today.

Tesla DID qualify on Q2 earnings but was admitted after Q3. Comparing 12/21 price ($695) to 9/21 price ($449) is wrong bc by 9/21 price fell after news of not including.

From yesterday on @realmoney @WilfredFrost @andrewrsorkin @beckyquick
Jan 14, 2021 | 07:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Easy Money Has Been Made in Banks
* The setup into the current reporting period is poor

* With bank stocks elevated, in-line to slightly lower reports, relative to

consensus expectations, could modestly disappoint traders and investors - particularly if my market concerns pan out

* Consider hedging bank stocks or writing calls against positions now

There was near a universal view that bank stocks were unattractive in March-April last

year.

When the ($XLF) was about $21, and I was buying, it was over $31.50 in pre-market trading, one analyst on our site said it was patently foolish to expect a rally in the sector. As to leading the market it was next to unimaginable to that observer.

A well-known

commentator on CNBC said banks were uninvestable because of some vague theory and narrative that they have permanently lost their competitive advantage. (He is now long!)

Others have just wobbled back and forth without any conviction.

I spent months in my Diary, in the media

and in speeches, outlining the merits - both short and long term - of the banking industry and stocks. I am sure, as the stocks traded near their lows, many were fed up with my own theories on the banking industry's attraction.

The rest is history.

Of late, bank stocks have

CTFN's #ICYMI weekend edition: #Merger and deal activity are expected to be robust in 2021, and regulator scrutiny is expected to be rigorous.

(thread) #antitrust #investming #stocks

In the meantime, key changes will occur under the new #Biden administration at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission that is anticipated to weigh heavily on big pharma deals, @dalter28 wrote

#FTC #antitrust #MnA

Further for one big pharma deal, Surani Fernando wrote that while @AstraZeneca's $39 billion bid for @AlexionPharma has drawn a number of critics, a strategic build-out of immunology may prove an important rationale for the deal

#mergers #healthcare $ALXN $AZN

On @Google's acquisition of @Fitbit: the @acccgovau rejected #Google's offer of behavioral remedies this week, though a former ACCC official walked CTFN through how the parties might handle the review

#HeyGoogle #ACCC

The Russian regulatory process for Nova Resources' proposed buyout of Kaz Minerals is unlikely to exceed the standard timeline, CTFN's @CamerinoValeria reported

#shareholders #mergers #mining