It isn’t “I need $5 Million by Friday” but it’s close...
Today, a mezz thread!
Also, the answer to a few questions including:
Yesterday’s Value That Company!
Also, Why am I so dumb?
Finally, Why listen to me? 🤷♂️
Here we go!
It isn’t “I need $5 Million by Friday” but it’s close...
(Answer shortly)... https://t.co/mNFNGgHiMI
It is time... For reasons that will be clear tomorrow, we are going into the archives for the first 2021 edition of Value That Company!
— Matt Willes (@SkolCapital) January 12, 2021
Today: Consumer Finance
TTM: 217 M Rev; 12.7 M EBITDA
Prior year: 97 M Rev; -4.4 M EBITDA
2 yr ago: 23 M Rev; -2.9 M EBITDA
More details: https://t.co/rn8lbARa4V
Management is good, but also very aggressive which I’m not sure I love...
Worse, we don’t have the time to really dig into the numbers as extensively as I’d like... https://t.co/np5UPBmjnu
Ok, stealing my thunder from tomorrow, BUT:
— Matt Willes (@SkolCapital) January 12, 2021
5% of customers never make even 1 payment: 100% loss rate
24% default before maturity: 15% loss rate
32% payoff < 90 days: 7% avg ROI
11% payoff > 90 days: 91% ROI
28% go full term: 121% ROI
I get comfortable enough with the numbers to estimate the company is worth at least $100 Million ...
Will I lend $10 Million (this was a big deal so I partnered with some friends) into $100 M equity value? Sure
Then the CEO asked if I’d do equity?
The company continues growing, and refinances me out within a year.
I get a 36.9% IRR ... a good deal all the way around.
Yesterday, @IrishCapMGMT correctly identified the company on everyone’s favorite valuation game.
The company just sold for $1.65 Billion less than 3 years later... https://t.co/trYKMEJaJB
Sounds similar to your former portco Acima.
— Irish Capital (@IrishCapMGMT) January 12, 2021
For others, Acima just agreed to sell to Rent-a-Center for $1.65bn or ~1.3x revenue per the article. https://t.co/Ihm3TeURsQ
1) Circle of Competence/Discipline - This deal was a success for me because I stayed disciplined within what I know. I don’t like/try to avoid risks I don’t understand
Why should their success diminish mine?
IDK, but I’m unwilling to take the risk...
(I won’t be investing, though - see #1)
More from Finance
Having made over 1000 boxes for vulnerable families in Cambridge via @RedHenCambridge (thanks to our customers 🙏🏽) My thoughts on the £30 box thing. Lots of factors at play here. 1/
If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/
There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*
3/
If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/
I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/
Hi all. I\u2019ve been sent LOTS of photos of the food parcels that have replaced the \xa330 vouchers and asked what I would do with them. I\u2019m replying with advice privately because to do so publicly would look like justifying these ill thought through, offensively meagre scraps /1.
— Jack Monroe (@BootstrapCook) January 11, 2021
There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*
3/
If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/
I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
Rule 4 : If buying a naked option, always ensure that implied volatility is low. This can be understood from the level of IV vis a vis historical IV levels. Use IVR or IVP etc.
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.
This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
For a naked option to make money, it's better if IV rises or at least stays flat.
Rule 3 : DO NOT run or trade everything that moves. Focus on a few stocks and master them. When a move comes, make the max out of that move.
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) October 14, 2021
Example : in this crazy mkt, I did not even trade TataMotors this week. Stayed focussed on ITC and it gave good returns https://t.co/41wkugZg1I
This is a thread I wrote on IV, IVR etc
IV - A thread
— Subhadip Nandy (@SubhadipNandy16) September 20, 2018
In financial mathematics, implied volatility of an option contract is
that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when
input in an option pricing model ) will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of the option (1/n)
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See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote:
One thing I've been noticing about responses to today's column is that many people still don't get how strong the forces behind regional divergence are, and how hard to reverse 1/ https://t.co/Ft2aH1NcQt
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 20, 2018
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
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https://t.co/yFsHwrNYaK
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🚨🚨🚨
https://t.co/gVwpT0ssqI
Alain Merieux, who owns bioMerieux, was instrumental in the creation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology P4 Lab.
The same people who helped create the virus, also helped to create the vaccines...
Moderna partnered with French Pasteur Institute in 2015 to develop mRNA vaccine technology.
Pasteur Institute partnered with the Wuhan P4 Laboratory in 2017 along with the Merieux Foundation to study emerging viruses...
https://t.co/yFsHwrNYaK
https://t.co/9M5lydBKhM
Nobel prize winning scientist Luc Montagnier asserts that Sars-Cov-2 is man-made and originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Montagnier did extensive work with the Pasteur Institute in France which was partnered with the Wuhan P4.
Merieux Foundation & the Chinese government have worked together since 1965, and partnered to study emerging pathogens in Africa in 2015.
Their research included "PATHOGENS CARRIED BY BATS" that provoke respiratory diseases.
🚨🚨🚨
https://t.co/gVwpT0ssqI
