It isn’t “I need $5 Million by Friday” but it’s close...
Today, a mezz thread!
Also, the answer to a few questions including:
Yesterday’s Value That Company!
Also, Why am I so dumb?
Finally, Why listen to me? 🤷♂️
Here we go!
It isn’t “I need $5 Million by Friday” but it’s close...
(Answer shortly)... https://t.co/mNFNGgHiMI
It is time... For reasons that will be clear tomorrow, we are going into the archives for the first 2021 edition of Value That Company!
— Matt Willes (@SkolCapital) January 12, 2021
Today: Consumer Finance
TTM: 217 M Rev; 12.7 M EBITDA
Prior year: 97 M Rev; -4.4 M EBITDA
2 yr ago: 23 M Rev; -2.9 M EBITDA
More details: https://t.co/rn8lbARa4V
Management is good, but also very aggressive which I’m not sure I love...
Worse, we don’t have the time to really dig into the numbers as extensively as I’d like... https://t.co/np5UPBmjnu
Ok, stealing my thunder from tomorrow, BUT:
— Matt Willes (@SkolCapital) January 12, 2021
5% of customers never make even 1 payment: 100% loss rate
24% default before maturity: 15% loss rate
32% payoff < 90 days: 7% avg ROI
11% payoff > 90 days: 91% ROI
28% go full term: 121% ROI
I get comfortable enough with the numbers to estimate the company is worth at least $100 Million ...
Will I lend $10 Million (this was a big deal so I partnered with some friends) into $100 M equity value? Sure
Then the CEO asked if I’d do equity?
The company continues growing, and refinances me out within a year.
I get a 36.9% IRR ... a good deal all the way around.
Yesterday, @IrishCapMGMT correctly identified the company on everyone’s favorite valuation game.
The company just sold for $1.65 Billion less than 3 years later... https://t.co/trYKMEJaJB
Sounds similar to your former portco Acima.
— Irish Capital (@IrishCapMGMT) January 12, 2021
For others, Acima just agreed to sell to Rent-a-Center for $1.65bn or ~1.3x revenue per the article. https://t.co/Ihm3TeURsQ
1) Circle of Competence/Discipline - This deal was a success for me because I stayed disciplined within what I know. I don’t like/try to avoid risks I don’t understand
Why should their success diminish mine?
IDK, but I’m unwilling to take the risk...
(I won’t be investing, though - see #1)
More from Finance
Thread Best books recommendation by one of best investor I knew @insharebazaar (Virtually)
He grab many multibagger stocks and His style also unique(1st Seen interview in @TraderHarneet's YT Channel)
He follow Simple process
Young Intelligent Investor who also appeared in ET
1. One Up On Wall Street
2. Rich Dad Poor Dad
Access here : https://t.co/UWOCF732z6
3. The Unusual Billionaires
4. Trading in the Zone
https://t.co/G7mqVPtEM0
5. Market Wizards
6. The Intelligent Investor
https://t.co/yPKBzYyPAl
7. The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing
8. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
https://t.co/PiioB3hdHP
He grab many multibagger stocks and His style also unique(1st Seen interview in @TraderHarneet's YT Channel)
He follow Simple process
Young Intelligent Investor who also appeared in ET
1. One Up On Wall Street
2. Rich Dad Poor Dad
Access here : https://t.co/UWOCF732z6
3. The Unusual Billionaires
4. Trading in the Zone
https://t.co/G7mqVPtEM0
5. Market Wizards
6. The Intelligent Investor
https://t.co/yPKBzYyPAl
7. The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing
8. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
https://t.co/PiioB3hdHP
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A small tribute/gift to members
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technical screeners - intraday and positional both
before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too
thank you
positional one
run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels
1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht
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https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB
3- Breakouts in short term
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https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G
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https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo
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A small tribute/gift to members
Screeners
technical screeners - intraday and positional both
before proceeding - i have helped you , can i ask you so that it can help someone else too
thank you
positional one
run - find #stock - draw chart - find levels
1- Stocks closing daily 2% up from 5 days
https://t.co/gTZrYY3Nht
2- Weekly breakout
https://t.co/1f4ahEolYB
3- Breakouts in short term
https://t.co/BI4h0CdgO2
4- Bullish from last 5
intraday screeners
5- 15 minute Stock Breakouts
https://t.co/9eAo82iuNv
6- Intraday Buying seen in the past 15 minutes
https://t.co/XqAJKhLB5G
7- Stocks trading near day's high on 5 min chart with volume BO intraday
https://t.co/flHmm6QXmo
Thank you