1/  We've reached a critical inflection point in bitcoin's adoption curve.

A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.

Are you ready for what comes next? 👇


2/ A perfect storm of demand dynamics is driving #Bitcoin price.

I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
3/ After years asleep at the wheel, institutional leaders are now jarred awake, en masse.

If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.

Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
4/ They will buy *all* dips.

Their bots will not stop buying.

There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
5/ And the whales who accumulated much lower?

How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?

In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.

In a liquidity crisis.
6/ This is why the halvening was never priced in.

This is why I think #Bitcoin goes to $35k-$40k, before a shakeout much worse than anything we've seen so far.

I’m not saying we teleport to $40k instantly.

Just small gains, pretty much every day, for many weeks.
7/ I could be wrong about this -- that's certainly happened before.

But this scenario would not be unprecedented:

This same thing happened in 2017, when #BTC broke previous ATHs after multiple tries.
8/  If you feel like you don't have enough exposure:

*Don't* throw risk mgmt out the window -- because we can't know for sure if I'm right.

Buy gradually -- on small pullbacks, at the weekly TWAP, BTC's time-weighted average price.

9/  Free tradingview indicator for checking TWAP:

10/  How will you know when we're approaching the local top?

I will look to two metrics:

(and neither one is funding -- funding will be useless if this scenario plays out).
11/ The first is Short Term Holder MVRV, from @glassnode.

I consider this the alpha metric on-chain for finding local #BTC tops.

I want to see STH-MVRV print above a 1.5, then make lowers lows.
12/ The second is Whale Exchange Ratio.

On Gemini exchange: this metric was never wrong in 2020.

Gemini whales are #Bitcoin 's secret bellweather.

(Data from @cryptoquant_com)
13/ I'll be watching closely to see how all this plays out.

And regardless of the result - I feel grateful.

After enduring the long crypto winter, we're finally here at the beginning of something special. 👊

More from Crypto

Out of curiosity I dug into how NFT's actually reference the media you're "buying" and my eyebrows are now orbiting the moon

Short version:

The NFT token you bought either points to a URL on the internet, or an IPFS hash. In most circumstances it references an IPFS gateway on the internet run by the startup you bought the NFT from.

Oh, and that URL is not the media. That URL is a JSON metadata file

Here's an example. This artwork is by Beeple and sold via Nifty:


The NFT token is for this JSON file hosted directly on Nifty's servers:


THAT file refers to the actual media you just "bought". Which in this case is hosted via a @cloudinary CDN, served by Nifty's servers again.

So if Nifty goes bust, your token is now worthless. It refers to nothing. This can't be changed.

"But you said some use IPFS!"

Let's look at the $65m Beeple, sold by Christies. Fancy.


That NFT token refers directly to an IPFS hash (https://t.co/QUdtdgtssH). We can take that IPFS hash and fetch the JSON metadata using a public gateway:


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Assalam Alaiki dear Sister in Islam. I hope this meets you well. Hope you are keeping safe in this pandemic. May Allah preserve you and your beloved family. I would like to address the misconception and misinterpretation in your thread. Please peruse the THREAD below.

1. First off, a disclaimer. Should you feel hurt by my words in the course of the thread, then forgive me. It’s from me and not from Islam. And I probably have to improve on my delivery. And I may not quote you verbatim, but the intended meaning would be there. Thank You!

2. Standing on Imam Shafii’s quote: “And I never debated anyone but that I did not mind whether Allah clarified the truth on my tongue or his tongue” or “I never once debated anyone hoping to win the debate; rather I always wished that the truth would come from his side.”

3. Okay, into the meat (my love for meat is showing. Lol) of the thread. Even though you didn’t mention the verse that permitted polygamy, everyone knows the verse you were talking about (Q4:3).

4. Your reasons for the revelation of the verse are strange. The first time I came across such. I had to quickly consult the books on the exegeses or tafsir of the Quran written by renowned specialists!
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