I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
1/ We've reached a critical inflection point in bitcoin's adoption curve.
A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.
Are you ready for what comes next? 👇
#Bitcoin
I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.
Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
Their bots will not stop buying.
There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?
In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.
In a liquidity crisis.
This is why I think #Bitcoin goes to $35k-$40k, before a shakeout much worse than anything we've seen so far.
I’m not saying we teleport to $40k instantly.
Just small gains, pretty much every day, for many weeks.
But this scenario would not be unprecedented:
This same thing happened in 2017, when #BTC broke previous ATHs after multiple tries.
*Don't* throw risk mgmt out the window -- because we can't know for sure if I'm right.
Buy gradually -- on small pullbacks, at the weekly TWAP, BTC's time-weighted average price.
https://t.co/DSutfD4HXP
TWAP stands for Time Weighted Average Price. It is de rigeur among institutions when accumulating an asset whilst there's an absence of OTC block sellers with whom to directly match.
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) December 4, 2020
The guarantee of fill and privacy of overall size are certainly also plus points.$BTC
I will look to two metrics:
(and neither one is funding -- funding will be useless if this scenario plays out).
I consider this the alpha metric on-chain for finding local #BTC tops.
I want to see STH-MVRV print above a 1.5, then make lowers lows.
On Gemini exchange: this metric was never wrong in 2020.
Gemini whales are #Bitcoin 's secret bellweather.
(Data from @cryptoquant_com)
More from Crypto
Excited to share our 2020 #Bitcoin review.
2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.
Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.
1/
Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.
But it was by no means stable ride up.
2020 was a historically volatile year.
@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its
Jan.
3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.
BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.
The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.
Feb.
COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.
This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies. https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M
Mar.
Financial markets in free fall.
The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.
Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.
BTC closed the day down 40%
2020 will be remembered as the year the long fabled institutions finally arrived and #Bitcoin became a bonafide macroeconomic asset.
Below are the top highlights of each month for Bitcoin’s historic year.
1/
Bitcoin is now at all-time highs capping off an extremely successful year.
But it was by no means stable ride up.
2020 was a historically volatile year.
@YoungCryptoPM and I provided a detailed overview of every month of 2020 in all its
Jan.
3 days into the new year the US assassinated Iran’s top general Soleimani.
BTC surprisingly reacted to the events behaving like a safe haven as the risk of war increased.
The events provided the first hints of BTC potentially having graduated to a legitimate macro asset.
Feb.
COVID-19 reached a tipping point causing markets to crash.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an ATH in the following weeks.
This is when everyone learned BTC was not a recession hedge, it was a hedge against inflation and loss of confidence in fiat currencies. https://t.co/JB7dJ3qp6M
1/ Figure I should get out ahead of this issue:
— Dan McArdle (@robustus) June 22, 2018
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation & loss of confidence in fiat, NOT a hedge against a typical recession.
Mar.
Financial markets in free fall.
The liquidity crisis was so severe BTC experienced one of it’s worst days ever.
Now known as Black Thursday, on March 12, BTC plummeted as much as 50% to below $4,000 at its lowest point on the day.
BTC closed the day down 40%
1/ Bitcoin: a bold new world.
Satoshi published the white paper on 10/31/2008. Right at the moment of peak despair during the 2008 financial crisis. Trust had been lost in a world that ran on trust.
2/ But why October 31st? It certainly wasn’t because Satoshi was a fan of halloween, it must have had a deeper meaning. With all of his actions, he demonstrated a careful precision.
He had been working on Bitcoin for at least a year and a half before publishing the white paper.
3/ “I believe I've worked through all those little details over the last year and a half while coding it, and there were a lot of them. The functional details are not covered in the paper, but the sourcecode is coming soon” - Satoshi Nakamoto
4/ On August 18, 2008 Satoshi registers registers https://t.co/rMWwiEwtxT through https://t.co/Uj8lMr10kB.
Satoshi was ready and waiting to hit the send button throughout 2008. What was so special about October 31st?
5/ I believe that Satoshi published the Bitcoin white paper on 10/31 as a hat tip to the ancient Gaelic festival of “Samhain” which was also the date in which Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to a church door. Both represent an end of the old and the beginning of the new.
Satoshi published the white paper on 10/31/2008. Right at the moment of peak despair during the 2008 financial crisis. Trust had been lost in a world that ran on trust.
2/ But why October 31st? It certainly wasn’t because Satoshi was a fan of halloween, it must have had a deeper meaning. With all of his actions, he demonstrated a careful precision.
He had been working on Bitcoin for at least a year and a half before publishing the white paper.
3/ “I believe I've worked through all those little details over the last year and a half while coding it, and there were a lot of them. The functional details are not covered in the paper, but the sourcecode is coming soon” - Satoshi Nakamoto
4/ On August 18, 2008 Satoshi registers registers https://t.co/rMWwiEwtxT through https://t.co/Uj8lMr10kB.
Satoshi was ready and waiting to hit the send button throughout 2008. What was so special about October 31st?
5/ I believe that Satoshi published the Bitcoin white paper on 10/31 as a hat tip to the ancient Gaelic festival of “Samhain” which was also the date in which Martin Luther nailed his 95 Theses to a church door. Both represent an end of the old and the beginning of the new.
1/ ERC-20 token standard approve() has caused an unnecessary cost of $53.8M for #Ethereum and #DeFi users
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.
👇👇👇
2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.
3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.
You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.
4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter
1/ I just spend my Saturday morning on a call with a crypto fund explaining to them how #Ethereum ERC-20 token approve() function works
— \U0001f42e Mikko Ohtamaa (@moo9000) August 29, 2020
I am too old for this shit. pic.twitter.com/7EYfOaRP5L
5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
