I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
1/ We've reached a critical inflection point in bitcoin's adoption curve.
A moment wholly unique in the history of markets.
Are you ready for what comes next? 👇
#Bitcoin
I think something shifted in the market -- and active investors & traders would do well to adjust their mindset.
If they want this asset: they'll have to hustle, compete with the masses and FOMO in above ATH's.
Against a backdrop of scarcity unlike anything they've ever seen.
Their bots will not stop buying.
There isn't enough supply for all of them, and they know it.
How much appetite will strong hands have to market sell, just to run stops?
In the opening hours of the greatest bull market of their lives.
In a liquidity crisis.
This is why I think #Bitcoin goes to $35k-$40k, before a shakeout much worse than anything we've seen so far.
I’m not saying we teleport to $40k instantly.
Just small gains, pretty much every day, for many weeks.
But this scenario would not be unprecedented:
This same thing happened in 2017, when #BTC broke previous ATHs after multiple tries.
*Don't* throw risk mgmt out the window -- because we can't know for sure if I'm right.
Buy gradually -- on small pullbacks, at the weekly TWAP, BTC's time-weighted average price.
https://t.co/DSutfD4HXP
TWAP stands for Time Weighted Average Price. It is de rigeur among institutions when accumulating an asset whilst there's an absence of OTC block sellers with whom to directly match.
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) December 4, 2020
The guarantee of fill and privacy of overall size are certainly also plus points.$BTC
I will look to two metrics:
(and neither one is funding -- funding will be useless if this scenario plays out).
I consider this the alpha metric on-chain for finding local #BTC tops.
I want to see STH-MVRV print above a 1.5, then make lowers lows.
On Gemini exchange: this metric was never wrong in 2020.
Gemini whales are #Bitcoin 's secret bellweather.
(Data from @cryptoquant_com)
More from Crypto
1/ Welcome to #DeFi Wednesday.
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
👇👇👇
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
https://t.co/uiG0fZiVyu
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
Let's talk about how interest-bearing cash on a blockchain is going to revolutionise boring corporate treasury management that concerns every company is is a larger business than all crypto trading in the world.
Enter the thread
👇👇👇
2/ Blockchain community is often seen as toxic maxis and redditors who shill other their weekly favourite shitcoin in the hope of getting Lambo.
Sometimes we also do things that progress humanity towards the better future and interest-bearing cash is one of those things.
3/ Less chad and more things that actually matter:
My incomplete theory of interest-bearing cash is also available also as a blog post:
https://t.co/uiG0fZiVyu
It is 15 pages. Pick your slow poison or die fast by continue reading here.
4/ First time in the history we have an ability to create interest-bearing cash-like instruments.
Interest-bearing cash ticks up dollar (euro) balance real-time in your wallet.
Here is a demonstration using @aaveaave aDAI, based on @makerdao DAI, and @TrustWalletApp
5/ Interest-bearing cash is not like your bank's saving account. Your money in a bank is not yours, but bank's. There are some flaws in the current banking system causing a headache for Chief Financial Officers (CFOs)
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Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote:
One thing I've been noticing about responses to today's column is that many people still don't get how strong the forces behind regional divergence are, and how hard to reverse 1/ https://t.co/Ft2aH1NcQt
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) November 20, 2018
See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:
And see this thing that I wrote:
And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:
And see this other thing that I wrote: