BC CRYPTO
Saved by @Jacobtldr

Big #Altcoin thread for $ALTS: Where are we at in the cycle, how long do we have, is this #ALTSEASON, what are the relationships like, all of that. $BTC #Bitcoin $ETH $LINK #Altcoins

 First: What is #Altseason? The true altszn was seen in 2017/2018, where $BTC fell off a cliff and $ALTS were the 'safe haven' from btc dumping. ALTS went literally 1000%+ (many much higher). Since that time we have seen many #Altcoin pumps, starting primarily in late Q4 each year
These Altcoin pumps are usually 20-1000% gains on nearly the ENTIRE #Altcoin market. This is awesome to see and genius season- you can't lose. Dips are bought up quickly and both ALT/USD and ALT/BTC pairs pump HUGE. Are we currently in that environment? I'm not quite sure tbh.
I think that $BTC still has a little more gas in the tank, which would result in ALT/BTC pairs suffering IMO. You can see more of my thoughts on #Bitcoin below, but I think that we could see 1 more shakeout + then we could see a big run starting in December 2020 for $ALTS
As an #Altcoin trader, you need to understand several things for the environment in which to trade $ALTS successfully:
- $BTC PA
- $BTC.D
-Seasonality
- $ETH
- and much more
IMO, the easiest way to figure out what the altcoin environment is like is by looking at $BTC.D, aka #Bitcoin dominance. Many notes on the charts, please read them. In short: BTC.D going up = altcoins down. This is mostly in referral to ALT/BTC pairs for the most part.
As you can see, $BTC.D goes down in Q4s each yr, starting in December. The last 3 Decembers have been quite nice for #Altcoins and I don't expect this to change personally. We see pump in Dec-January, cooling off in February, and then a springtime pump for $ALTS.
Another important thing to note is altszn is also characterized by ALT/BTC pairs doing extremely well (more than ALT/USD pairs). Generally, ALT/USD will go up with BTC/USD.

BTC up= ALTBTC -/ ALTUSD +
BTC down= ALTBTC -/ALTUSD-
BTC range = ALTBTC+/ALTUSD+

Always exceptions ofc
Right now we're seeing ALT/USD go up more than ALTBTC (for the most part) when BTC is going up. If BTC starts to range, I expect ALTBTC pairs to catch up personally. More on $BTC thoughts below:
What are the drivers for #Crypto? $BTC and $ETH are the biggest market caps. Here is #Bitcoin first and the price action and what I expect. Check out this thread that I wrote before:

https://t.co/v9pvOOEWsK
$BTC has had 3 different types of price action in the winter the last 3 years. I think that this one will look mostly like 2018 winter (heading into 2019).
$ETH: #Ethereum has a stronger pump than $BTC in December generally (in terms of %) the last few years. December sparks off a strong $ETHUSD run and I wouldn't be surprised to see this hit $800 in the next few months.
#Ethereum is also a leader in the #Altcoin market generally and $ETHBTC is also an important pair to watch. This one has been consolidating and you can argue it's been in the same range since 2018! This 1 also has strong gains in December (not as much as USD pair).
What does the total #crypto market cap look like? It looks pretty good IMO, higher today than any point since early 2018. I think that means that we should see some good gains in terms of ALT/USD pairs. These are good for macro views of the market IMO.
What are the #Altcoins that I expect to pump? As I've said many times before, I think that you should think about $ALTS in terms of groups or classes. These groups will typically pump together due to FA relationship or similar market cycles.
Some examples are: #IEO coins, #DeFi coins, majors ( $LTC $XRP $BCH), old ERC-20 coins ( $REP $GNT $ICX), new shiny coins ( $INJ $AXS), and many more. For the most part, I expect all of these to pump in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs.
Which #altcoins should do best? I think that the newest coins will do the best.

-No old bag holders (resistance)
-New technology and new hype
-Price discovery easily attainable and not -90% price history
-Lots of new hype
I think that stuff like $DOT $INJ, many of the #DeFi coins, and new coins will do better than older coins like $ICX or $STRAT personally. $LINK should also do very well.
Ok, so I think that $ALTs are going to pump big in the coming months. What is the timeline on our altcoin pump? I think that we see a strong December/January, price to go down in Feb and then pump again in March/April, followed by Alt destruction after that.
This is a thread that highlights more of that timeline. Summers have been painful for $ALTS in 2018 and 2019 (2020 was an exception due to DeFi IMO).

https://t.co/HY5g8HFrW5
What are some reasons why this all might be wrong? If $BTC keeps going to all time high levels in the coming months I think that this entire thread will be wrong and ALT/BTC pairs will get smashed. This is entirely possible given the market structure IMO.
Furthermore, given the #DeFi summer, alts might need to cool longer and maybe March is when they start the run. Some of these coins might need longer accumulation periods.
Tl;dr: I think that #Altcoins are going to pump solidly in December. I am not sure if we are currently in altszn right now, I am waiting for $BTC to finish its current run. I am scaling into several that I like ( $LINK $YFI $AAVE $ETH $DOT) and I plan on swing trading these ones.
Always remember to: Take profits, keep your stop losses, never FOMO, always DYOR, never go all in. I am expecting a very nice end of 2020 for all of us. Good luck and stay safe!

More from Crypto

\U0001f42e Mikko Ohtamaa
🐮 Mikko Ohtamaa...
@moo9000
1/ ERC-20 token standard approve() has caused an unnecessary cost of $53.8M for #Ethereum and #DeFi users

This is bad. Continue reading why and how to avoid this in the future.

👇👇👇


2/ Before you go all rage on the flaws of my analysis, please read the whole Twitter thread for disclaimers and caveats.


3/ approve() is an unnecessary step of ERC-20 tokens when they interact with smart contracts.

You know this because when you do a Uniswap trade you need press two transaction buttons instead of one.


4/ Why there is approve() - you can read the history in this Twitter


5/ I queried all approve() transactions on Google BigQuery public dataset and calculated their ETH cost and then converted this to the USD with the current ETH price.
CRYPTO
Blake Burge \U0001f4a1
Blake Burge 💡
@blakeaburge
Think crypto is confusing?

You're right.

Let's make it easier.

Here's Crypto Terminology 101: 🧵

Altcoin:

Any coin that's not #Bitcoin

Ether (#ETH) is the second most popular coin overall and the most well-known Altcoin.

Ether is the native cryptocurrency on the Ethereum blockchain.

There are thousands of other altcoins, but for now, this is the one to know.

Bitcoin: (#BTC)

The first decentralized digital currency.

Launched in 2009 by an unknown person or organization known only as "Satoshi Nakamoto."

It is the most famous, and most valuable cryptocurrency.

Blockchain:

The core tech behind Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies.

An open, distributed, general ledger where transactions are organized into blocks which are then connected using cryptography.

Coin:

A store of digital value that lives on a blockchain.

Some blockchains, such as Bitcoin, use the same name for both the network and the coin.

Stable coins are another type of cryptocurrency which are backed by fiat currency (e.g the US dollar) or commodities such as Gold.
CRYPTO
Advertisement
Prateek Singh
Prateek Singh
@PrateekLearnapp
We should be proud about @0xPolygon. But don't invest if you don't understand what they do just like any other asset class.
CRYPTO
OtisA502 \u24d2
OtisA502 ⓒ
@otisa502
Where should I start?
1) Is Blockfi profitable?
2) How much money does BlockFi have on its balance sheet?
3) Is the yield that BlockFi pays to its depositors earned or subsidized by billionaire investors?
4) Has BlockFi ever been profitable?
5) Are you planning to go public?
CRYPTO
Phoenix
Phoenix
@Phoenix_Ash3s
1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!

TLDR at 27-29
Let’s go!🔥

2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.


3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense


4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth


5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.
CRYPTO

You May Also Like

Roger Grosse
Roger Grosse
@RogerGrosse
Important paper from Google on large batch optimization. They do impressively careful experiments measuring # iterations needed to achieve target validation error at various batch sizes. The main "surprise" is the lack of surprises. [thread]

https://t.co/7QIx5CFdfJ


The paper is a good example of lots of elements of good experimental design. They validate their metric by showing lots of variants give consistent results. They tune hyperparamters separately for each condition, check that optimum isn't at the endpoints, and measure sensitivity.

They have separate experiments where the hold fixed # iterations and # epochs, which (as they explain) measure very different things. They avoid confounds, such as batch norm's artificial dependence between batch size and regularization strength.

When the experiments are done carefully enough, the results are remarkably consistent between different datasets and architectures. Qualitatively, MNIST behaves just like ImageNet.

Importantly, they don't find any evidence for a "sharp/flat optima" effect whereby better optimization leads to worse final results. They have a good discussion of experimental artifacts/confounds in past papers where such effects were reported.
MACHINE LEARNING
Maurice Casey
Maurice Casey
@MauriceJCasey
I am reading through reams of late-1920s communist poetry and easily my favourite title so far is: "To a Lady who Rejected a Poem about Spring as a Petit-Bourgeois Deviation"

The last lines:
"So here's my hat into the air,
Three cheers for your amazing hair,
For coal mines, and for turbines, too,
For steel, the Comintern and you!"

A not exactly graceful (though possibly satirical) title: "Lines Disassociating Myself from Yessenin and Supporting the Otherwise Unfounded Legend that I am a Foremost Proletarian Writer"

An excerpt:
"Goodbye verses of Yessenin
Goodbye literary slop-
You are not the line of Lenin
You are not the line of WAPP

Never shall I moan a
simple lyric from the heart
I'll devote my new corona
to the proletarian art"

The poet was Joseph Freeman, who published much of his revolutionary verse in the New Masses, a stylish journal of the interwar American literary Left.
CULTURE
Advertisement
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit


Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in


1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only


2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , ALL , OPTIONS STRATEGY
Daoyu
Daoyu
@Daoyu15
@franciscodeasis https://t.co/OuQaBRFPu7
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the


chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project

starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".

P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!

https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?
ALL
Pran Katariya
Pran Katariya
@KatariyaPran
The Straddle is my favorite trade these days. But more often than not, one needs to adjust to make a good return from it. There are many ways to do this depending on your view, psychology and imagination. Will discuss a few that I use

The Straddle is a delta neutral strategy and it is important to keep deltas in check during the course of the Trade and not let them run away from you. Of course Volatility is the elephant in the room- but not going there as that will require a separate discussion

The first and most common method is to go 'inverted.' That is to say to shift the untested side to generate additional Premium and increase the runway to Breakeven. So if you start with a Straddle at 700 and price goes to 740, you can move the PE up to say 720.

How much should you move the untested side? While again this is a matter of skill, experience and artistry, the rule of thumb is to cut deltas by half. Remember, prices will move and you have to allow sufficient room for them to fluctuate

The second method is to shift the entire Straddle in the direction of the move. So if you have a 700 Straddle and Price goes to 740, you can shift the Straddle to 720. If you time this right, it can generally be done at virtually no cost or minimal cost.
ALL , OPTION SELLING , STRADDLE OPTION SELLING


Category Partner: Enkryptopedia