Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.

Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.

While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.

The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.

He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.

With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
5/ "If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for another 40...if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy." - @nntaleb
6/ So who cares?

What are some useful applications of the Lindy Effect in helping you understand the world?

Given its recent rise and accelerating mainstream adoption, let's look at Bitcoin and how the Lindy Effect may apply.
7/ First off, it is a technology - a durable, non-perishable item. This checks the first box.

The Bitcoin Genesis Block was created in January 2009 and it has continued to survive in the nearly 12 years since that date.

It has withstood technological and societal attacks.
8/ From technology-based attacks to societal attacks (please read my thread below before you compare it to tulips!), it has shown its robustness.

The Lindy effect says the fact that Bitcoin has survived this long makes it likely to survive much longer. https://t.co/2MRgHzP9Dy
9/ So as you sit down for Thanksgiving dinner, prepared for the inevitable questions about Bitcoin and its long-term viability, remember the Lindy Effect!

That was Lindy Effect 101. I hope you found it useful.

And special thank you to my friend @GavinBaker for the thread idea!
10/ For more interesting insights on the topic, I highly recommend reading @nntaleb's Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. It is simply foundational! https://t.co/R85Kan6pWU
11/ And for more education threads on business, finance, money, and economics, check out my meta-thread below. Turn on post notifications so you never miss a thread! https://t.co/JyqunaYxDe

More from Sahil Bloom

Short Squeeze 101

If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.

But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?

Here's Short Squeeze 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, the basics.

The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.

The basics are covered in my thread below.

https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs

TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.


2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.

It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).

It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.

3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.

When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.

4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.

We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.

Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.

More from Crypto

Out of curiosity I dug into how NFT's actually reference the media you're "buying" and my eyebrows are now orbiting the moon

Short version:

The NFT token you bought either points to a URL on the internet, or an IPFS hash. In most circumstances it references an IPFS gateway on the internet run by the startup you bought the NFT from.

Oh, and that URL is not the media. That URL is a JSON metadata file

Here's an example. This artwork is by Beeple and sold via Nifty:

https://t.co/TlJKH8kAew

The NFT token is for this JSON file hosted directly on Nifty's servers:

https://t.co/GQUaCnObvX


THAT file refers to the actual media you just "bought". Which in this case is hosted via a @cloudinary CDN, served by Nifty's servers again.

So if Nifty goes bust, your token is now worthless. It refers to nothing. This can't be changed.

"But you said some use IPFS!"

Let's look at the $65m Beeple, sold by Christies. Fancy.

https://t.co/1G9nCAdetk

That NFT token refers directly to an IPFS hash (https://t.co/QUdtdgtssH). We can take that IPFS hash and fetch the JSON metadata using a public gateway:

https://t.co/CoML7psBhF
1/9 #BSC Daily from


2/9 #BSC Daily from

You May Also Like

First thread of the year because I have time during MCO. As requested, a thread on the gods and spirits of Malay folk religion. Some are indigenous, some are of Indian origin, some have Islamic


Before I begin, it might be worth explaining the Malay conception of the spirit world. At its deepest level, Malay religious belief is animist. All living beings and even certain objects are said to have a soul. Natural phenomena are either controlled by or personified as spirits

Although these beings had to be respected, not all of them were powerful enough to be considered gods. Offerings would be made to the spirits that had greater influence on human life. Spells and incantations would invoke their


Two known examples of such elemental spirits that had god-like status are Raja Angin (king of the wind) and Mambang Tali Arus (spirit of river currents). There were undoubtedly many more which have been lost to time

Contact with ancient India brought the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism to SEA. What we now call Hinduism similarly developed in India out of native animism and the more formal Vedic tradition. This can be seen in the multitude of sacred animals and location-specific Hindu gods