Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

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The most powerful paradoxes of life:

The Persuasion Paradox

Have you noticed that the most argumentative people rarely persuade anyone?

The most persuasive people don’t argue—they observe, listen, and ask questions.

Argue less, persuade more.

Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.

The Effort Paradox

You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.

Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice.

Small things become big things. Simple is not simple.

The Wisdom Paradox

“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” — Albert Einstein

The more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown.

This should be empowering, not frightening.

Embrace your own ignorance. Embrace lifelong learning.

The Growth Paradox

Growth takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you ever would have thought.

Growth happens gradually, then suddenly.

When you realize this, you start to do things differently.

Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that undermine the quality of an argument.

THREAD: 20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid:

Ad Hominem

Latin for "to the person" - an attack of the person rather than the argument.

Instead of addressing the argument and its points and merits, the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.

All-too-common in politics.

The Texas Sharpshooter

A Texan fires a gun at a barn wall and then paints a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes to create the appearance of accuracy.

Selecting and highlighting evidence that supports the conclusion while ignoring evidence that may refute it.

The Bandwagon Fallacy

An assumption of truth on the basis of the majority of people believing it to be true.

"Everyone believes X, so obviously X is true."

Typically offered without regard for the qualifications or ability of the people in question to validate the claim.

Straw Man

The offender ignores the actual argument and replaces it with a flimsy, distorted, easily-refuted argument (a “straw man”).

By replacing a strong argument with a weak one, the offender can create the illusion of an easy, swift victory.

I recently found out I'm going to be a father.

Here are the principles I want to teach my child to live by:

Be Interested

Talent is overrated—interest is not.

Interested people are prone to giving their deep attention to something to discover more about it.

They ask questions, listen, & observe. They open up to the world around them.

Being interested is a key to a fulfilling life.

Different is Beautiful

Growing up, I feared being different—I desperately wanted to fit in.

I made bad decisions grounded in insecurity.

I only realized later: being different is your edge—your ultimate competitive advantage.

No one can compete with you, at being you.

Work Hard

If you want to accomplish anything in life, you have to work hard.

Don't believe the hype. Hard work isn't the sexy, flashy Instagram posts saying "rise & grind”—it's the ugly, painful effort in the dark, when no one is watching.

If you want something, go get it.

Show Up in the Darkest Hour

It's easy to be there for people to celebrate their wins.

It takes character to show up for them in their darkest hour.

People never forget who supported them when the chips were down.

Be the friend who is always there—in good times and bad.

The interview process is never fun.

But it’s a real opportunity to stand out.

Master these 10 common questions to nail your next interview:

Question: “Tell me about yourself.”

This isn’t an invitation to recite your resume.

It's a test of whether you can provide a concise, thoughtful overview of your past, present, and future.

Keep it short.

Focus on key decisions and insights that may not pop off the page.

Question: “Why this company?”

Standard test for for shotgun blast applicants.

A generic answer can derail your process.

Do your research. Write down 2-3 unique points about the company that appeal to you.

You won’t get the job with your answer, but you can definitely lose it.

Question: "What would you do in the first 100 days on the job?"

This is a test of your preparation, research, initiative, and humility.

Have a concrete plan for how you would approach your early days.

Be sure fact-finding and learning is a key part of it (the humility aspect).

Question: “What are your strengths?”

Resist the urge to reel off a long list of broad strengths.

Tailor your response to the role and company.

Provide 1-2 key strengths that make you well-suited for this specific job.

Leverage storytelling—bring them to life with anecdotes!

1. IMP ANNOUNCEMENT

I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!

The hostility & sexism of

2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political

3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the

4. the long standing pattern of the president's party losing seats in the Midterm happens virtually every single cycle. I believe there are 2 recent exceptions: post-9/11 in the 2022 midterms and 1998 post-Lewinski gate. What I'm trying to do in building @StrikePac is completely

5. redesign/overhaul/modernize & reshape the way that Dems currently approach electioneering. I want to build a new organization with the funds capable of coming into cycle's like VA's 2021 cycle and the 2022 midterm cycle and start to deploy these new methodologies into the

We're in the phase of the market where there's a lot of retail inbounds but not enough education about the Ethereum ecosystem and DeFi.

So, let's break down the basics of some of the top protocols.

First on deck: Aave (@AaveAave), an Ethereum-based money market protocol.

A 🧵

TL;DR: Aave is a protocol through which any user anywhere in the world can take decentralized loans by collateralizing their assets.

Aave also allows those will idle assets to earn a relatively safe return on capital from lenders, whose rates are determined by a curve.

1/ For years, most crypto assets had no indirect or direct utility.

Users would hold BTC, ETH, and other assets (including many ERC-20 tokens) with no expectation of a native yield or dividends.

ETH, for instance, was long just an asset for transaction fees, as was Bitcoin.

2/ If users wanted to borrow against their assets, they were relegated to centralized platforms—which were few and far between years ago.

3/ Aave, formerly ETHLend, is a protocol allowing users the ability to lend and borrow on-chain, without KYC and untransparent fees.

Users can deposit a variety of assets as collateral, then use that collateral as ammo to borrow other assets to be used in DeFi or beyond.

NFT Crypto Guide 101 📚

🔹What are Non-Fungible-Tokens?
🔹What are NFTs used for?
🔹What do I expect for the NFT space in 2021?
🔹What NFTs do i hold?
🔹Where do I buy NFTs?

I will go through all of these questions.

Thread below 👇

🔹What are Non-Fungible-Tokens (NFTs)?

NFTs are crypto tokens that represent something unique. They are not mutually interchangeable.

This means that one NFT is not the same as the other.

Unlike for example Bitcoin, where each satoshi is exactly the same as the other.

These NFTs exist on the Ethereum Blockchain. Instead of ERC-20 tokens, we call these NFTs: ERC-721 or ERC-1155 tokens.

Each of these NFTs have an unique ID that seperates them.

For example, The Hashmask with ID #6718 is completely different than the Hashmask with ID #9939.

Different visually as well as the ID on the blockchain.

🔹What are NFTs used for?

NFTs are used to create verifiable digital scarcity and digital ownership.

The main applications we see today are:

🔹Digital Art
🔹Collectibles
🔹Games