Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!


1/ First, a few definitions.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.

Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.

While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.

The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.

He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.

With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
5/ "If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for another 40...if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy." - @nntaleb
6/ So who cares?

What are some useful applications of the Lindy Effect in helping you understand the world?

Given its recent rise and accelerating mainstream adoption, let's look at Bitcoin and how the Lindy Effect may apply.
7/ First off, it is a technology - a durable, non-perishable item. This checks the first box.

The Bitcoin Genesis Block was created in January 2009 and it has continued to survive in the nearly 12 years since that date.

It has withstood technological and societal attacks.
8/ From technology-based attacks to societal attacks (please read my thread below before you compare it to tulips!), it has shown its robustness.

The Lindy effect says the fact that Bitcoin has survived this long makes it likely to survive much longer.
9/ So as you sit down for Thanksgiving dinner, prepared for the inevitable questions about Bitcoin and its long-term viability, remember the Lindy Effect!

That was Lindy Effect 101. I hope you found it useful.

And special thank you to my friend @GavinBaker for the thread idea!
10/ For more interesting insights on the topic, I highly recommend reading @nntaleb's Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. It is simply foundational!
11/ And for more education threads on business, finance, money, and economics, check out my meta-thread below. Turn on post notifications so you never miss a thread!

More from Sahil Bloom

More from Crypto

Lots of people are sleeping on one the biggest things @quant_network is currently involved in-ODAP (Open Digital Asset Protocol).

So what is exactly #ODAP and why this makes $QNT one of the most significant and, regarding #crypto mcap, undervalued projects?

Time for a THREAD⬇️

1/ODAP is the protocol for communication between gateways, primarily with an enterprise focus.
So banks, central banks etc. would run a gateway in Overledger Network and ODAP would be the protocol for gateways to communicate with each other in a secure and trustless manner. $QNT

2/ #ODAP Interfaces are the open source connectors that will connect a gateway to #blockchains and any existing network / API. That is based on the standards from work done at ISO TC 307 which 57 countries are working towards.
$QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian is the founder of TC307.

3/We know from the submitted drafts via #IETF (the Internet Engineering Task Force) $QNT is working on #ODAP with:



but, there’s more to the story as we found out from Gilbert that US Government, Juniper, payment and telecom companies are also there.

4/So how it all started with #ODAP?
Let’s go back to $QNT CEO Gilbert Verdian’s interview with Santiago Velez on #RealVision (October 14th) and try to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.
I’ll forward his words ⬇️
You are running out of time to get ahead in cryptocurrency.

You know what's coming:

🔺️ Regulation
🔺️ More shutdowns
🔺️ Banks deciding who gets to do business

It's time you got your own crypto wallet.

Don't know how? I'll show you.



What's metamask? It's a wallet. That you -- I mean YOU -- own.

You see, when you buy crypto through an exchange like CoinBase, you own it but only kind of.

If they get

🔺 Hacked
🔺 Shutdown
🔺 Servers crash

-- your money is STUCK.

We are gonna avoid that 👇

First thing,

Go to

You can download it on your computer. It's a browser extension.

Alternatively, go to the app store on your Android or iPhone. It's there too.

As part of the setup process, you will choose a password.

More importantly though...


As you follow the setup process, you will be given a 12-word seed phrase.


Take it down and guard it like the map to Davey Jones' Locker.



We good? Great.

Let's continue.

Once you're all setup, your MetaMask wallet is going to look something like the picture below.

See where it says Crypto Address? That's where your actual address will be.

It'll be a random arrangement of letters, numbers, etc.

Click on it to copy to your clipboard


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🌺कैसे बने गरुड़ भगवान विष्णु के वाहन और क्यों दो भागों में फटी होती है नागों की जिह्वा🌺

महर्षि कश्यप की तेरह पत्नियां थीं।लेकिन विनता व कद्रु नामक अपनी दो पत्नियों से उन्हे विशेष लगाव था।एक दिन महर्षि आनन्दभाव में बैठे थे कि तभी वे दोनों उनके समीप आकर उनके पैर दबाने लगी।

प्रसन्न होकर महर्षि कश्यप बोले,"मुझे तुम दोनों से विशेष लगाव है, इसलिए यदि तुम्हारी कोई विशेष इच्छा हो तो मुझे बताओ। मैं उसे अवश्य पूरा करूंगा ।"

कद्रू बोली,"स्वामी! मेरी इच्छा है कि मैं हज़ार पुत्रों की मां बनूंगी।"
विनता बोली,"स्वामी! मुझे केवल एक पुत्र की मां बनना है जो इतना बलवान हो की कद्रू के हज़ार पुत्रों पर भारी पड़े।"
महर्षि बोले,"शीघ्र ही मैं यज्ञ करूंगा और यज्ञ के उपरांत तुम दोनो की इच्छाएं अवश्य पूर्ण होंगी"।

महर्षि ने यज्ञ किया,विनता व कद्रू को आशीर्वाद देकर तपस्या करने चले गए। कुछ काल पश्चात कद्रू ने हज़ार अंडों से काले सर्पों को जन्म दिया व विनता ने एक अंडे से तेजस्वी बालक को जन्म दिया जिसका नाम गरूड़ रखा।जैसे जैसे समय बीता गरुड़ बलवान होता गया और कद्रू के पुत्रों पर भारी पड़ने लगा

परिणामस्वरूप दिन प्रतिदिन कद्रू व विनता के सम्बंधों में कटुता बढ़ती गयी।एकदिन जब दोनो भ्रमण कर रहीं थी तब कद्रू ने दूर खड़े सफेद घोड़े को देख कर कहा,"बता सकती हो विनता!दूर खड़ा वो घोड़ा किस रंग का है?"
विनता बोली,"सफेद रंग का"।
तो कद्रू बोली,"शर्त लगाती हो? इसकी पूँछ तो काली है"।