Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

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In 1983, a 52-year-old senior executive at Texas Instruments was passed over for the company's top job.

He would go on to found and build the most strategically important company in the world.

Who's up for a story?

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1/ Morris Chang was born into a middle-class family on July 10, 1931 in Ningbo, Chekiang, China.

The early years of his life were set against a backdrop of hardship.

Wars and widespread poverty had overwhelmed the country, exposing him to this suffering at a young age.

2/ His father - an official in the local government - encouraged Morris to focus on school.

Fleeing the violence of the ongoing wars, Morris and his mother moved frequently.

His studies became his respite.

In 1948, at the height of the Civil War, they moved to Hong Kong.

3/ In 1949, Morris Chang was accepted to Harvard University.

He moved to America.

After just one year at Harvard, he transferred to The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to study engineering.

He graduated in 1953 with a B.S. and M.S. in Mechanical Engineering.

4/ While he had originally intended to continue his studies and get a PhD, he failed his qualifying exam, so was forced to enter the job market.

He took an entry-level job with Sylvania Semiconductor, but quickly realized the company wasn't forward-thinking enough for his style.

In 1637, the Dutch Republic erupted into a speculative fever over an unlikely item...the tulip.

Tulip Mania has become a legend synonymous with market euphoria and bubbles. But is this tale all it's cracked up to be?

Who's up for a story?

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1/ The tulip is a spring-blooming flower native to the valleys of the Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia.

It is believed to have been introduced to Europe in 1554, when an ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor sent tulip bulbs and seeds to Vienna from the Ottoman Empire.

2/ Tulips gained in popularity as people were attracted to their rich color and ability to grow in sub-optimal conditions.

They soon became a coveted status symbol for the wealthy.

The Semper Augustus, with its colorful, flame-like streaks, was the most desired of them all.

3/ By the early 1600s, the Dutch Republic was entering a golden age.

Many financial innovations popped up during this time - the first stock exchange, for example.

But it was another financial innovation that would propel tulips into historical lore: the futures contract.

4/ As tulips grow slowly and may take several years to bloom, paper contracts were written that entitled the buyer to the future tulips.

These contracts were freely-traded.

So in addition to the physical market for tulip bulbs, a thriving paper market was established.

Warren Buffett is a treasure trove of wisdom.

But contrary to what you have been told, most of it has nothing to do with investing.

10 powerful lessons for life from the Oracle of Omaha:

Wait For A Juicy Pitch

“You don't have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch."

Life doesn’t reward you for the number of swings you take.

Focus on identifying the juiciest pitch.

When it comes, swing hard and don’t miss it.

Just Stop Digging

“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging."

When things aren’t working, change course and try something different.

Be nimble. Be agile.

When you find yourself at the bottom of a hole, stop digging and climb out of it.

Exploit Disconnects

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

Seek out situations where there is a clear disconnect between price and value.

This applies to investing, but it’s more broadly a mental model for life.

Identify disconnects. Exploit them to your advantage.

Be Contrarian

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Following the crowd is easy, but it can be a trap.

Learn to think independently. Come to your own decisions. Develop your own mental models.

Your unique perspectives are your superpower.

11 harsh truths that changed my life (and may change yours):

Harsh Truth: You'll only see your loved ones a few more times.

In May 2021, I had a conversation with a friend that changed my life.

I was talking about living in California—so far away from my parents in Boston—when my friend asked how often I saw them and how old they were...

I said I saw them about once per year, and that they were in their mid-60s.

He said, "Ok, so you'll see them 15 more times in your life."

Gut punch. It sounds insensitive—but it's just real.

Our time is finite, but we fail to recognize it until it's too late...

Later that month, we sold our house in California and moved to the East Coast to be closer to our parents.

It was the best decision I've ever made.

I'll never regret those tiny moments—of doing nothing in particular—that we'll get to spend together in the years ahead.

Harsh Truth: Most of your friends aren’t really your friends.

They’re just along for the ride when it’s fun, convenient, or valuable.

Your real friends are the ones who are there for you when it's none of those—when you have *nothing* to offer in return.

Cherish them.

First principles thinking is a powerful framework for deconstructing complex problems and driving non-linear outcomes.

Here's a breakdown of what it is and how it works:

Aristotle defined a first principle as "the first basis from which a thing is known."

A first principle is a basic, foundational assumption—one that cannot be deduced or broken down any further.

First principles are foundational truths.

"First principles thinking”—or "reasoning from first principles”—is a problem-solving and innovation framework that requires you to break down a complex problem into its most foundational elements.

The aim: to ground yourself in the foundational truths and build up from there.

When we encounter challenging problems, our tendency is to rely on base level assumptions we have been told are true—or we believe to be true.

It's quick and easy to do.

But it also leads to unimaginative, linear solutions that closely resemble what has been done before.

This is called "reasoning by analogy”—it leads to solutions that are much like something else.

To be sure, it can be very useful when speed is the priority.

But it falls short when dealing with complex problems requiring creative, imaginative solutions.

0/ Predictions for 2021:
(This is not investment advice, or any other type of advice. DYOR)

1/ #ETH hits new ATH(s).

2/ #Bitcoin breaks $55K; but BTC YE2021 close is < $30K.
wins!

3/ > 3 billion-dollar crypto IPOs successfully occur (eg CoinBase, BlockFi, et al).

4/ @SBF_Alameda’s ‘off-chain BTC folding’ strategy goes unnoticed; whole crypto ecosystem wins!

TRIANGLE MASTERCLASS - a thread.

what's the simplest, most effective method of trading a market that trends as hard as cryptocurrencies?

trendlines.

one trendline on its own is strong, but when you put two together you quickly realize just how powerful this simple tool can be.

i've been using triangles for as long as i can remember.

it seems dumb, and almost counter-intuitive to approach such a complex game like trading with such a simple approach like shapes...but maybe when markets start acting stupid its okay to dumb down our approach.

look, not all triangles are the same.

anybody can draw some lines on a chart any way they'd like. sometimes, we let our bias affect our charts rather than the other way around.

i personally have done this more times than i can count.

you see...triangles (and analysis as a whole) is not necessarily intended to make trading easier as much as it is to make trading simple.

you want a fluid bias that can change easily, rather than one relying on 10 steps of conflicting confirmation before entering a new trade

trendlines enable us to maintain a fluid bias.

i mean, how much simpler can it be than "above this line bullish, below this line bearish" ? 😂

one trendline on its own can be enough to make a good trade, but when you put two together it can turn a good trade into a great one.

Slow and steady wins the race

Bitcoin is often critized for being slow in everything

But here is the thing: the more you complicate a design early on, the more you push it down a specific road

Get your assumptions wrong, and it's off-road

Thread/

This might take a few tweets to get out.
1/ The ICO boom in 2017 and the altszn in early 2018 were unique in that crypto was a largely unregulated space where countless fools were getting lucky on the bad luck of greater fools. This was largely fueled by Ethereum and the ability

2/ to create tokens and contracts from thin air but it got thrust from the post halving BTC bull market and the unique phenomenon of 'crypto kitties' which were both like booster rockets and drew huge media attention to the entire crypto space

3/ Crypto wasn't new in 2017-18 but it was new to most of the people who were seeing it on the evening news, CNBC, etc. Seeing construction workers buying new trucks with crypto riches and idiotic crypto-rich in lambos and moving to Puerto Rico -

4/ - these images captivated lots of people and inspired the idea of 'I missed out before, I don't want to miss out this time' in relation to stocks, internet, tech, real estate, and more. The important ingredient was 'If those people can do it, I can do it'

5/ The inclusion of a character like John McAfee and the entire ICO industry created a greedy free for all where for every good project there were fifty worthless ones - but sometimes, a diamond emerged from the shit