Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

👇👇👇

1/ First, a few definitions.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.

Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.

2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.

While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.

3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.

The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.

4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.

He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.

With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.

Accountancy is more likely to be mocked than celebrated (or condemned), but accountants, far more than poets, are the unacknowledged legislators of the world.

1/

Though "bean counters" are employed by firms, they are notionally bound by a professional code of ethics every bit as serious as the Hippocratic Oath: "count things honestly." Without an accurate accounting of quantities, you can't make good decisions on quality.

2/

Though accountancy concerns itself with counting things, it is inextricably bound up with the realm of ideas, and accounting conventions (how you account for things) are philosophical matters, not empirical ones.

3/

It's no coincidence that #ModernMonetaryTheory owes more to accountancy than it does to economics. Economic accounts of the economy have an unfortunate tendency to proceed from first principles, creating models based on pure reason, without checking in on the actual world.

4/

For example, neoclassical econ's "homo economicus," the rational value-maximizing actor who populated so many models; or economists' insistence on targeting inflation with interest rates; or treating national "debts" like they were household debts.

5/

Pierre Boulle was born today in 1912, so what better time to look back at his sociological science-fiction classic that paved the way for Star Wars and the MCU.

This is the story of Planet Of The Apes!

Pierre Boulle is probably best known for his 1952 novel Bridge On The River Kwai, based on his wartime experiences in Indochina. So it was possibly a surprise when 11 years later he authored a science fiction novel.

However Boulle had been a Free French secret agent during the war. He was captured in 1943 by Vichy forces in Vietnam and sentenced to hard labour. This experience of capture would shape his novel La Planète Des Singes.

Published in 1963 La Planète Des Singes recieved good reviews. An English translation - entitled Monkey Planet - was issued the following year. It was a story that seemed to strike a chord with readers.

In the novel two rich travellers find a manuscript written by journalist Ulysse Mérou. It tells a fantastical tale: how he travelled with two wealthy explorers to Betelgeuse. They land on the planet Soror, a world of primitive humans ruled by advanced civilised apes.

Two years ago on a weekend, I built a tool to make it easier to evaluate Twitter accounts. Since then 36590 people used it to analyze 55390 different Twitter accounts.

Over the last months @mmkaradeniz and I made a new version. We launched it last night:

@accountanalysis doesn't use machine learning or AI „magic“. Instead of telling users if an account is authentic or not, it helps them to evaluate the accounts themselves.

It visualizes the different features (date, time, type, app, etc.) of Tweets to make them interpretable. /1

@accountanalysis The core concept is still the same, but it looks much better and is easier to operate. Not only for the users, but us developers as well. Enabling us to continuously roll out new features in the future.

Side-by-side screenshots of the old and new version. /2

@accountanalysis Some people had questions what different charts displayed and how they could be interpreted. There are now explanations for all charts, that can be toggled on and off at any time. /3

@accountanalysis The selected/retrieved Tweet count moved to the top to make it clear that not all Tweets of an account are analyzed. 3200 is the API limit by Twitter. It's possible to get more through the Premium API, but I don't think people would pay $100+ for the analysis of one account. /4

7 Stocks which are consistently taking support at 50 day exponential moving average (50DEMA) for last few times and are trading near 50 DEMA

1) Apollo Hospitals

2) Elgi Equipments

3) J K Cements

4) Oriental Aromatics

5) Prism Johnson

1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!

TLDR at 27-29
Let’s go!🔥

2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.

3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense

4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth

5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.

@Hadithoftheday Jannah.
Jannah (Paradise/Heaven) has eight gates while as Jahannam (Hell) has seven gates.
Allah in His mercy has made more entry points to Jannah than Jahannam.

Eight gates of Jannah are:
1.Bab-As-Salat
2.Bab-al- jihad
3.Bab-al- sadaqah
4.Bab-Ar-Rayyan
5.Bab-al-kazimeen-al-ghaiz-wal-aafina-anin-naas
6.Bab-al-hajj
7.bab-al-iman
8.bab-al-dhikr
Each gate has a name describing the kinds of people who will enter through these

Seven gates or levels of Hell/Jahannam are:
1. Jahannam
2. Ladha'
3. Saqar
4. Al-Hutamah
5. Jaheem
6. Sa'eer
7. Al-Haawiyah

Allah mentions seven gates of Hell in Surah Hijr of Glorious Qur'an.

Allah says in Qur'an:
"And indeed, Hell is the promised place for them all."
"It has seven gates; for every gate is of them a portion designated."
(Qur'an :Al-Hijr 15: Verse 43,44)

Each level of Jahannam not only contains different temperature, but also have different punishments and also contain different people.
The gates of Hell are structured one gate below the other descending.

Warm wishes, dear Tweeples on #ThiruvalluvarDay and a Happy Maattu Pongal!

Not sure how many of you know, but today is #ThiruvalluvarDay. A day dedicated to Thiruvalluvar (Valluvar) – a Tamizh poet & philosopher.

@HelloNNewman @RajeAiyer

There’s not much information available about Thiruvalluvar, in fact, it is not known whether his name was indeed ‘Thiruvalluvar’. It is believed that he used to live in Mylapore (in Chennai).

@VedicWisdom1 @Mahadevangini

So, why is Thiruvalluvar such a celebrated author? Someone about whom no verifiable information is available, apart from work exalting him. It is because of his work - ‘Tirukkuṟaḷ’ (a collection of couplets on ethics, political and economical matters, and love) is +

@shri_v

+ well known and probably the only non-religious book that has maximum translations (41), though I was able to find list of only 35 languages.

The earliest reference to Thiruvalluvar is found in works called ‘Thiruvalluva Maalai’ (Garland of Thiruvalluvar).

@hathyogi31

This is of utmost significance because this anthology contains fifty-five verses, each written by different poets praising the ancient work of ‘Kural’ and its author ‘Valluvar’. This work is believed to be of poets spanning centuries beginning from around 1st century CE, +

भ्रामरी देवी दुर्गा के अवतारों में से एक हैं। दुर्गा के सभी अवतारों में से रक्तदंतिका, भीमा, भ्रामरी, शताक्षी तथा शाकंभरी प्रसिद्ध हैं। मां भ्रामरी की पौराणिक ग्रंथों में वर्णित कथा के अनुसार, एक समय जब पृथ्‍वी पर अरुणासुर नामक दैत्य ने आतंक का माहौल पैदा किया।

अरुणासुर ने कठोर नियमों का पालन कर ब्रह्मदेव की घोर तपस्या की।तप से प्रसन्न होकर ब्रह्मदेव प्रकट हुए और अरुणासुर से वर मांगने को कहा।अरुणासुर ने वर मांगा की कोई भी मुझे युद्ध में न हरा सके,न किसी अस्त्र-शस्त्र से मेरी मृत्यु हो, स्त्री-पुरुष के लिए मैं अवध्य रहूं और न ही दो व...

...चार पैर वाला प्राणी मेरा वध कर सके।
साथ ही मैं समस्त देवताओं पर विजय प्राप्त कर सकूं। ब्रह्माजी ने तथास्तु कह कर ये सब वरदान उसे दे दिए। इसके पश्चात अरुणासुर ने सर्वप्रथम स्वर्गलोक पर अपना अधिकार स्थापित कर लिया। देवता अरुणासुर से हारने के बाद घबराकर महादेव की शरण में आए।

महादेव ने सभी देवताओं को देवी भगवती की उपासना करने को कहा।क्योंकि वे ही अरुणासुर का अंत करने में सक्षम हैं।तब सभी देवताओं ने देवी की घोर तपस्या की।प्रसन्न होकर देवी के जिस रूप ने देवताओं को दर्शन दिए,वे चारों ओर से असंख्य भ्रमरों से घिरी हुई थीं।भ्रमर विशेष प्रकार की बड़ी...

...मधुमक्खी होती है।भ्रमरों से घिरी होने के कारण देवताओं ने उन्हें भ्रामरी देवी के नाम से सम्बोधित किया।देवताओं से पूरी बात जानने के बाद देवी ने उन्हें आश्वस्त किया कि अरुणासुर दैत्य का अंत अवश्य होगा और देवताओं का स्वर्ग पे राज पुन: स्थापित होगा।तत्पश्चात देवी भ्रामरी अरुणासुर..

SIMPLE & FREE LEARNING FOR U ALL FRIENDS

#Ramayana #LecturesOnTheRamayana

In the past, we had a glimpse of Lakshmana's devotion towards Sri Rama, his brother and father figure.

However, it is interesting to note his unique relationship with Sita, especially as seen by from her perspective.

Thread below

1/

We all know about the Golden Deer / Maricha incident and the way Sita influences Lakshmana to go in search of his brother.

Personally, I am unable to get 2 strong emotional points in one thread and hence, I will skip this incident for today.

2/

In Sundara Kanda, when Hanuman meets Sita, she says the following

सिंहस्कन्धो महाबाहुर्मनस्वी प्रियदर्शिनः।
पितृवद्वर्तते रामे मातृवन्मां समाचरन्।।

Lakshmana, who has lionshoulders and strong arms, who is handsome, who takes Rama as his father & treats me as his own mother

3/

ह्रियमाणां तदा वीरो न तु मां वेद लक्ष्मणः।
वृद्धोपसेवी लक्ष्मीवान् शक्तो न बहुभाषिता।।

Heroic Lakshmana, did not know while I was borne away. He is prosperous, foremost in serving elders. He is energetic and reserved in his speech like my father-in-law ..

4/

He is a prince dear (to his brother).

These are from Sarga-38, shlokas 60 and 61.

There are 3 distinct points which I want to draw the attention of the reader to.

1. She also compares Lakshmana to Dasaratha much like how Rama did when he constructed the hut in panchavati

5/

What all do I read to keep myself informed about new opportunities and to keep updating myself with the new happenings in the world?

Time for a thread about all tools I use to research,Find information and update myself about different subjects

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Blog Subscriptions I am subscribed to for investing:

1. @borrowed_ideas
2. Non-Gaap Substack
3. The Flywheel substack
4. Read The Generalist
5. Kiran D- has a blog on word press
6. Uncommon Profits
7. Used to read stalwart but they reduced the posting
8. @rohitchauhan

9. @IntelsenseI
10. @SeekingAlpha
11. @themotleyfool
12. Betaoalpha Substack by @mehrotra_saket
13. @MarcellusInvest
14. @PerfectResearch

Others that I like to read

1. @TheKenWeb
2. @EconomicTimes Prime. Recently they have improved
3. @TheEconomist
4. @forbes_india

Sectoral experts/Analysts that I follow:

For Pharma- @AdityaKhemka5 , @unseenvalue & @punitbansal14 + Contract Pharma for cdmo

For Banking- @HemindraHazari , Digant Haria and Ashish Gupta from Credit Suisse (he's terrific)

For chemicals- Rohit Nagraj from Emkay Global

and chemical weekly+Chemical reports monthly from B&K securities

Broker reports that I like to read whenever I can:

1. Spark capital-hands down the best reports in the country.

2. Ambit- publish some good stuff. But rarely available

3. JM Financial- exceptional reports.

In a business where the buying & selling price is fixed by the government, how is that the sugar stocks are rallying so much?

A thread 🧵 to learn how the sugar sector works. Do re-tweet and hence us educate more investors (1/n)

- Sugar is made out of Sugarcane
- The government fixes buying price (FRP – Fair & Remunerative price) for the mill from the farmers at 2.850/Kg
- Selling price is also fixed at Rs. 31/Kg (MSP – Minimum selling price) (2/n)

Lets understand the sector,

- Sugarcane purchased by the mill is crushed to remove the juice (exactly like you have sugarcane juice at a hotel)
- Juice is heated & boiled to remove sugar (3/n)

- The juice can be boiled upto 3 times to remove sugar. Each time it is boiled, sugar is removed, than some water is added and boiled again to remove more sugar (4/n)

- There are 2 by-products as well. The residue left behind after the boiling process is over is like a gum/paste called molasses & the fiber/stem of the sugarcane after juice is extracted (5/n)

@VineetGala @cvocain 100% agree with your bearish view on those #APIs. I won't tell the names, so hopefully ppl will get motivated to watch the whole webinar (and learn something in the process). Good stuff @VineetGala 👌

Bhaktavatsala Perumal Thirukovil
#Thirunindravur
#TamilNaduTemples 🚩

Bhaktavatsala Perumal Kovil is located in Thirunindravur and is one among the 108 Divya Deshams. Mahavishnu is worshipped here as Bhaktavatsala Perumal and Lakshmi Devi as Ennai Petra Thayar.

Sthala Puranam says that, Varuna Deva had worshipped Mahavishnu here. Once Mahalakshmi was angry with perumal and left Vaikuntam. She came and stood (Nindra) here. Thus this place is called as Tiru Nindra Oor, where Oor means place. Samudra Rajan ( Mahalakshmi's father) requested

Mahavishnu to bring back Devi. Mahavishnu comes here and calms Devi and they return to Vaikuntam. As Mahavishnu listened to Samudra Rajan who is his Bhaktha, perumal is called Bhaktavatsala Perumal.
Another story says that, Kubera once lost his Wealth. He prayed to

Ennai Petra Thayar and regained his lost wealth. Those who lose wealth worship Devi here. Temple is also called Sukra Kshetram Devotees visit this Temple to get their wishes fulfilled. Chitra Pournami, Navaratri, Ekadashi are very famous here.

Om Namo Narayanaya
🙏🕉🙏

I’m contemplating leaving @twitter. The platform has proven to be instrumental in harming people with marginalized identities, which normally I wouldn’t blame a media platform for except that @jack has demonstrated negative interest in doing anything about it.

in the past when I’ve thought about this I’ve thought about it from the perspective of my own safety/comfort. And I’m good on that front; I can handle it. But now I’m thinking about it differently: thinking about the people who tell me they join or stay on twitter because of me.

Every time someone in the press refers to me as a “twitter celebrity” (actual phrase that I don’t fully understand or subscribe to but this is what people say) it means that my presence and voice are adding social cachet to a company that I find to be quite terrible.

People tell me that they learn a lot from what I have to say here, and sometimes that it’s their first or only exposure to certain ideas, histories, perspectives, etc. and I have to weigh that too. But I could post that stuff elsewhere.

We’ll see. I’m just thinking aloud for now but I’m watching closely to see what @twitter and @jack do in the coming days and how they respond to what we now know about Cesar Sayoc (beyond one really stupid tweet). Because we know it’s not just him. Big changes need to happen.

#Thread #DidYouKnow
Why Kerala State is called "God's Own Country"?
Younger generation will not know & older generation might have forgotten the History behind this.
When India got Independence on 15th August 1947, the Travancore Kingdom didn’t join the Indian Union Govt.

Diwan of Trivancore Kingdom announced in June,1947 that the Trivancore Kingdom will be a separate country by itself.
During that period, the Trivancore Kingdom was well developed with Public Transport, Telephone Network, & Heavy Engineering Industries. The King took over

all the expenses of the University. Above all, all Hindus were allowed to enter into all the Temples, without any bias on the caste, which was prevalent throughout India that point in time. When the talks were on between the Indian representatives & King Chithirai Thirunal

Balarama Varma, to make Trivancore Kingdom as part of Indian Union, the King said, "this land doesn't belong to me, belongs to Bhagwan Padmanabhaswamy & I am only the Custodian. If Bhagwan Ananthan asks me to do, I will oblige". The Indian authorities didn't believe this &

considered King's statement was just to dodge the issue. But the Travancore authorities showed a Palm_Leaf written on 20th January, 1750 signed by the then Trivancore King Anizhom Thirunal Marthanda Varma in favor of the Bhagwan Padmanabhaswamy that the entire Trivancore Kingdom