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The idea that CERB basic income payments *caused* an increase in population overdose deaths isn't an idea that deserves analysis, but humour me? What if we applied some of Bradford Hill's criteria of causation?

THREAD.

(Spoiler: It makes the notion even more ridiculous)


Temporality?

If CERB caused an increase in fatal ODs, the program had to come *before* the increase. The surge clearly started in *March*.

Compared to Feb:
AB: 43%⬆️
BC: 53%⬆️
ON: 19%⬆️

You couldn't even apply for CERB till *April 6*, and payments didn't come till mid-April.


Dose-response?

In causal relationships, there's⬆️incidence where there's⬆️exposure.

In April when people started getting CERB OD deaths went up in:
AB by 26%
BC by 4.3%
ON by 29%

But the proportion of people getting CERB was statistically *the same* (~23.5%) in each province.


Coherence with established evidence?

The literature shows financial *insecurity*, not financial support, contributes to higher risk substance use and poorer health outcomes. The "CERB made ODs go up" narrative isn't just inconsistent with the science. It's *opposite* to it.


More plausible than other explanations?

The mechanism suggested for the "CERB effect" is that when you give extra money to people previously living on less than we need to survive (that's the *actual* problem), they buy a bunch of drugs and die. So fatality rates go up.
around 2:30pm today. Basically the same time or a whisker before the Commonwealth CMO fronted the microphone. After VIC and SA (and earlier, QLD and WA) made their announcements. He misleads at best, conflating Northern Beaches restrictions with the rest of Sydney. Also tROoPs.


wow now Palasczuzk is up. Btw Morrison took a few seconds of his 3-minute piece to camera, posted to the gram, to say that “everybody is doing their job” lol a deadset giveaway.

the QLD Premier is also putting restrictions in place on greater Sydney. Now is not the time to visit the Sunshine State thanks Sydneysiders, she says. Not dissimilar to VIC, she says.

Dr Young (Queensland CHO) says greater Sydney is a declared hot spot, which includes the extended south coast to central coast areas, from 1am tomorrow. Queenslanders returning home will have to quarantine.

Qld CHO says tougher border restrictions necessary because so many other restrictions around Qld have been lifted. Few exemptions will be granted, she predicts. Anyone who has come to Qld from greater Sydney asked to test and notify Qld health authorities.