The latest focal S:N501 build is now up! It includes data from 4 Jan 2021.

We have new sequences in 501Y.V1/B.1.1.7 from Denmark, Singapore, Australia, Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, Jamaica, Luxembourg, Pakistan & the USA.

1/12

https://t.co/FTjvV7T7wL

The latest S:N501 focal build is now up, with data from 28th Dec:

We can see new sequences from Italy, Israel, Spain, France, & Ireland in the SE England variant (501Y.V1) & Switzerland in the South African variant (501Y.V2).

1/8

https://t.co/PEU7dhptO6

In 501Y.V1 (SE England variant), we can see 1 new sequence from France & Spain, each. The French sample has a travel history to the UK.

3 new sequences are from Israel (marked 1 & 2). Zooming in on '2' (divergence view) shows they are identical, indicating 1 introduction.

2/8

There are 7 new sequences from Ireland, found roughly in 5 places on the tree (4 are singletons, 3 cluster together - 2nd 'group' from the top).

These indicate at least 5 introductions, but we need to zoom in on the 3 that cluster to see more clearly.

3/8

Zooming in to the 3 that cluster together (divergence view), shows it can be difficult to distinguish introductions sometimes, especially as we expect strong travel links between the UK & Ireland, & may only be sampling the total diversity present in Ireland.

4/8

14 new sequences from Italy are scattered across the tree - some alone & some clustering.

Zooming in on a few clusters shows some seem to be linked, while others are harder to determine.
4 seem to be clearly linked as 1 introduction.

5/8

The focal S:N501 build has been updated with data from 15 Jan, & includes 164 non-UK, non-South African sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.

The S:E484 build has also been updated. Includes 501Y.V3 & 20B/S.484K (predominantly in Brazil).

1/16

https://t.co/3bdttjKVl4

There are 161 new, non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) from the Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Spain, Norway, Germany, the USA, & Switzerland, and from Turkey and Ecuador for the first time.

2/16

Turkey has 19 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time. These indicate many independent introductions, though a few clusters may indicate local transmission, and pairs with common exposure.

3/16

Ecuador has 4 sequences in 501Y.V1 for the first time, which represent 2 separate introductions (pic 2). 3 are identical, and may represent exposure to a common source (pic 3). The connection to the Spanish sequence may be a common source, or onward transmission.

4/16

Denmark has 66 new sequences (orange). A few are independent introductions, though many link with older sequences, showing continuing local transmission.

5/16

OK - now in Honduras narco-case including Prez JOH & brother Tony, now Geovanny Fuentes Ramirez has a proceeding before Judge Castel - Inner City Press will live tweet, thread below

The US Attorney's Office has asked for "Witness-1" to testimony under a pseudonym, and for jurors and "venire" (prospective jurors) be left unnamed, due to threats of retaliation and "inability of Honduran government to protect witness."
Or unwillingness?

Judge Castel: I presided over the Hernandez Alvarado trial, but this one will be different. Defense?
Defendant's counsel: I understand reading between the lines what your Honor is saying [about corruption in Honduras] and the alleged homicide...

Defense counsel: There have been public statements from the government of Honduras that this is all false. We could get that testimony even if the witnesses did not come here, using letters rogatory.

Defense lawyer: Either the jury will believe my client important tons of cocaine or not - whether he gave political campaign contributions in Honduras is a sideshow."
[To him, maybe]
Defense: The evidence should be kept out.

Chile is the poster child for extreme economic inequality in a developed country. I spent time there last year for my book (which has a chapter on Chile) and what I found hardest to understand is why there wasn't more political unrest. Now there

A few choice facts about Chile and inequality:

In Chile, the social security system is basically designed to redistribute wealth from the masses to the rich, because workers are required to put their savings into private investment funds that charge ridiculous fees.

The commitment to private industry runs deep. If the available water is sufficient either for drinking or growing avocados... well, you get the idea.

The result in Chile is two worlds, side by side.

And what is most remarkable is that, for the longest time, even the ostensibly left-wing parties were on board. Chile's socialists basically don't like socialism.

Portugal is famous for its mild climate and sunny beaches, but each year hundreds of people freeze to death and millions struggle to survive frigid winter weather.

Here's a quick thread based on my @POLITICOEurope story on Portuguese energy poverty

When I lived in Lisbon my friends and I joked that although the Portuguese were famous for melancholia, uncharacteristic (and unrealistic) optimism defined their approach to thermal insulation: homes seemed to be built as if the weather was expected to be perfect year-round.

While the weather is, indeed, really great for most of the year, it can also be really awful sometimes. In the Summer temperatures can shoot up to truly unbearable levels for weeks on end, and in the Winter the icy humidity can easily make you feel like you're freezing 24/7.

This reality is a huge problem precisely because so many Portuguese people live in homes that don't have the capacity to shelter them from the heat when temperatures rise and the cold when they drop. And that means that every year that means people die because of the weather.

This issue can be traced back to the rural exodus that took place during the second half of the XX century, when millions fled the interior to seek better futures either outside the country — immigrating to France, Germany and Luxembourg — or in cities like Lisbon and Porto.

NS2 a response to Mr Wolfgang Munchau. Although I agree on a number of points with WM in his recent @spectator piece-I disagree with his central contention that NS2 is about more gas for Germany. There is no more gas & what gas there is not for Germany. Lengthy thread to follow.

1.WMs @EuroBriefing article has swallowed a huge dose of Russian (and indeed German) propaganda. Throughout the article WM refers to Nord Stream 2 as being vital to Germany because of the need for more Russian gas. This is

2.The key point about NS2 is that it is a diversionary pipeline. There is no new gas. This huge political effort by Russia and Germany to deliver NS2 will not bring a single extra molecule of gas to Germany.

3.What is more the gas destined to land on the German Baltic coast at Greifswald (in AM's constituency) will substantially go not to Germany. The connecting pipeline for NS2, called EUGAL has the same capacity as NS2 (55bcm) and heads eastward to the Czech Republic.

4.Our friendly gas propagandists may well say that in December 2019 Gazprom signed a gas transit contract with the Ukrainian state owned energy company Naftogaz for 40bcm a year from 2021-2024. So with NS2 there will be more gas. NS2 plus the gas transited via Ukraine.