0/ We've highlighted FinTech infrastructure co's like BR, FIS, JKHY, MA, V, ICE, NDAQ, etc. as companies w/ a variety of moats that have led to dominant mkt share & outperformance despite being 50+ years old on avg.

$FISV had their investor day yesterday and laid out the why.

1/ $FISV highlights the fact that they have #1 market share in core accounting processing for $1-$50B FI’s; they are doing $1.0B in global e-Commerce revenue, and have more than $30B available for capital allocation over the next 5 years (read more M&A for FinTech co's)

2/ They have global reach with clients in more than 100 countries, more than 1,000 products & services, 10,000+ FI clients, & 6M merchant locations.

All while being #1 as a core account processor, merchant acquirer, bill pay, P2P payments, etc...

3/ This business model + market positioning has led to incredibly strong outperformance since inception ~35 years ago with cumulative $FISV shareholder returns of +42,171% vs. the $SPY at 3,327% & Nasdaq at 4,355%.

4/ $FISV has grown via a series of acquisitions over the past 30 years most recently the $22B tie up w/ First Data.

They highlight the progress on the deal & new goals post integration.

M&A is a skill & FISV has it financially; tech integration leaves something to be desired

Peter Lynch is a great investment manager of all time. He is famous for introduction of PEG. (P/E growth)

According to Mr. Lynch the faster the company grows, the higher the P/E ratio you should pay for that company

Here is a Thread - Peter Lynch thoughts & my interpretations.

1. Investing is fun, exciting & dangerous if you don’t do any work

Fun becoz we tend to learn so many things

Exciting becoz it give great moments of celebration because of unimaginable wealth

Dangerous becoz it can be addictive due to greed & people may start finding shortcuts

2. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

Study businesses, apply common sense and invest into something which you understand.

No need to adventure & no need to be part of anything or everything.

3. The stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

Stay away from noise & crowd to come out as a winner.

4. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing

The underlying entity of a stock is business. Choose to ignore everything else, but never ignore to study business.

Company includes few more things in addition to business like management, etc.

A THREAD on some insightful thoughts about Investing & Financial Independence by Rohit Chauhan (@rohitchauhan) Sir:

1/

The unfortunate reality of markets is that the last one to panic loses the most. So if you must panic, do it early or else don’t.

2/10

Investing is such a solitary activity where you are fighting your own bias and lack of knowledge; that it is amazing to see people argue and fight with others about the merit of their investment ideas.

Other than preserving your ego, what good can defending your ideas do?

3/

Thank god, my parents did not do a DCF on me like a lot of investors do in their analysis. Negative free cash flow during investment phase (school & college) & conclude my NPV was -ve. Good thing there is no way to short your kids. U are forced to be long & hope for the best.

4/10

It's a privileged life if one of the main worries in life is how to beat the market.

Less than 0.1% of humanity has this worry. It is the highest of high class problem.

5/10

25x is a good threshold for financial independence, where x is annual expenses.

Focus on fulfillment and not money beyond that. If you still chase money, then it’s not the money you are after.

*THREAD*

Scalp vs Swing Intraday trades and FOMO of “I can’t close it’s going higher.”

You’ll find yourself often caught between these feelings.

Looking at LTF for an entry, the market moves +10% and suddenly you find yourself looking to turn it into a swing.

The likely outcome in the MAJORITY of situations is:

Price pumping
Feel great about PNL
Look for higher targets
Price corrects
PNL drops
Either panic close before reversal
Or close at Break Even

The process is damaging to your balance and your psychology.

The reason is that your LTF entry is often unsuited as a swing entry point and if it is, your mentality is not prepared or able to hold for the swings.

This is an issue scalpers have to battle consistently. They will nail 3-4% moves while watching price often run 8-12% after.

You have to understand why you took your entry, what your expectations are and how you can manage the trade.

Converting from a LTF trade into a HTF one comes down to greed. We see green PNL and automatically start getting carried away with expectation.

In these conditions however there needs to be some grace given to that thought process. It’s possible but under management.

A Thread on~ O V E R T R A D I N G

Sitting and observing the numbers flicker on the screen might be very exciting.

But have you ever felt like you might've done better? Or you're just too tired of waiting that you punch an order right in?

That's a Bad Idea.

So, Let's understand the reasons behind it and try to find a way out.

1. Not having a trading plan makes you clueless.
Your impulses start to take control of you.

2. Having a trading plan; But still taking impulsive/ random trades.
Because of adrenaline rush or gambling instinct.

3. Revenge trading
When you try to force a trade in order to recover from a previous loss.

Sam Walton: Made in America
[Autobiography of Wal-Mart's Founder]

- Creating Value for customers
- Being obsessed with Cost Control
- Taking care of employees
- Learning and Innovating
- Why stores Failed
- Sam’s Rules for Building a Business(Must Read)

A Thread 🧵👇

2/ Wal-Mart today is a $400B market-cap company with over $500B in revenues, $15B of net profits, and over $25B in operating cash flows. It also owns a majority stake in Flipkart, and thereby in Myntra and PhonePe.

3/ Develop Communication/People’s skill: “I learned early on that one of the secrets to campus leadership was the simplest thing of all, speak to people coming down the sidewalk before they speak to you.”

4/ Be obsessed with providing value to the customers, save them money by tightly controlling costs: On business trips, Sam Walton and his colleagues used to stay in one or two rooms, once 8 of them shared one room. Expenses were capped at 1% of the purchases.

5/ “We exist to provide value to our customers, which means that in addition to quality and service, we have to save them money. Every time Walmart spends one dollar foolishly, it comes right out of our customer’s pockets."

The insights of the Austrian School of Economics will prove invaluable to investors navigating the distorted global economy of 2021.

This 18-tweet thread walks you through the definitive guide "Austrian School for Investors" by @scholarium_at, @RonStoeferle and @MarkValek.👇

1/ The roots of the Austrian School can be traced back to its founder Carl Menger, whose 1871 book Principles of Economics provided a new foundation for economic theory and solved the age-old "Paradox of Value".

From Menger's work we can derive 4 pillars of Austrian Investing.

2/ 1: The Subjective Theory of Value recognises that value is not determined by any inherent property of a good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce it, but by the importance an acting individual places on it for the achievement of their desired ends.

3/ 2: The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility recognises that as more units of a homogenous good are acquired, the utility derived from each additional unit declines.

This wide-ranging insight helps explain important economic phenomena such as the historical emergence of money.

4/ 3: Methodological Individualism is the principle that economic phenomena result from the actions of individuals.

Collective magnitudes like “the people” cannot act, & therefore cannot be treated as ultimate causes.

Austrians are cautious in their use of economic aggregates.

THREAD

Goldman Warns If The Short Squeeze Continues, The Entire Market Could Crash (Zero Hedge Premium)

Last Friday (Jan 22) we advised readers who thought they had missed the move in Gamestop (they hadn't), to position appropriately in the most shorted Russell 3000 names:

which included such tickers as $FIZZ, $DDS, $BBBY, $AMCX, $GOGO and a handful of other names, as it was likely that the short-squeeze was only just starting.

We were right and all of the stocks listed above - and others - exploded higher the coming Monday,

and all other days of the week, with results - encapsulated by the WallStreetTips vs Wall Street feud - that have become the only topic of conversation across America, while on WSB the only topic has been the phenomenal gains generated by going long said most shorted stocks.

To wit, the basket of top shorts we compiled on Jan 22 has tripled in the past week.

And while some are quick to blame last week's fireworks on the "dopamine rush" of traders at r/wallstreetbets who seek an outlet to being "copped up with little else to do during the pandemic"

while also blaming widespread lockdowns and forgetting that it has been Bloomberg that was among the most vocal defenders of the very lockdowns that have given us the short squeeze of the century), the reality is that at the end of the day

Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵 Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:

To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)

1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

• Weekly charts.
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

• The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

• This week my view is that it can take a pause.

• Longer term trend is super bullish.

• Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.

2. Daily:

• Candlestick pattern—Hanging Man

• Chart Pattern—Breakout Failure

• A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

• Here it forms near the top of upmove.

• Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.

Knowledge sharing initiative Book 3: "Zurich Axioms" by Max Gunther

The book crystallizes how to think about taking investment bets (position sizing), and how to reduce risks in investing & speculation. It focuses on teaching a balance between rewards & risks.

(1/n)

Here are the key takeaways from the book:

1. Take sizeable bets in life: Taking small bets will give you a good night's sleep as you have very little to lose, but the important point is "it won't ever make you rich".

(2/n)

2. Taking size-able risk is necessary to get rich but make sure you don't go bankrupt taking that risk.

3. Don't diversify too much as gains & losses will nullify each other.

(3/n)

4. Be less greedy to make money - Book some profits when you see a sudden huge increase in wealth - fear of regret will stop you from booking profits but don't be greedy as consistent streaks of lucks are rare in life.

(4/n)

5. Cut losses when you go wrong don't start praying that your losses will recover rather act quickly take some loss and sell out.

(5/n)

My 2021 DeFi Predictions:

1\ the rise of Decentralized Derivatives
In 2020, the embryo of the DeFi derivative market started to take shape. A dozen DeFi derivative platforms were established and began to launch mainnets. I expect this market will explode in 2021.

2\ Central bank currencies
The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to haunt the world's economy for some time. The economic uncertainty will last.
China will launch its Central Bank Digital Currency in 2021, and many will follow.

3\ Cross Chain BTC will continue to grow.
BTC will take a more important role in DeFi and Derivatives.

4\ Regulations intensify
There will be an increase in official and legislative scrutiny from regulatory agencies concerning the overall cryptocurrency industry internationally.

5\ More traditional money into Crypto and DeFi
Regulations are not bad things. More traditional money will find legitimate paths to crypto investment and in DeFi applications. This may become the drive to another great bubble.

" ALL ABOUT HEAD & SHOULDER CHART PATTERN"
~ This pattern is analogous to the human upper body
structure.
~ Credibility of this pattern is really high.
~ It consist of 3 types-
1. Head & Shoulder Top
2. Head & Shoulder Bottom
3. Head & Shoulder Continuation

1. Head & Shoulder Top:

~ It is used to take the bearish trade. While taking trade on the basis of this pattern. The prior trend should be an upward trend before the formation of this pattern takes place.

~ Risk to Reward ratio is high.

~ If we goes wrong SL will hit.

2. Head & Shoulder Bottom

~ It is also known as Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. It is one of my favourite pattern. It is used to take bullish trade.

~ Prior trend should be downtrend or sideways before this pattern formation takes place.

3. Head & Shoulder Continuation

~ Prior trend should be an upward trend before the formation of this pattern takes place.

~ Risk to reward ratio is high.

~Stop Loss should be on the closing basis.

Floor trading and fintwit share an overlapping dynamic

"cooperative competition"

It'll be fun to lay out some basics of the floor trading ecosystem and you will spot analogies.

First an fyi.

The floor gave traders what was known as "time/place advantage". It was the first place an order became public if it was not an electronic order.

Let's classify the traders on the floor:

"Locals" and prop firms

"Locals" are independent traders.

They trade their own money and secure the right to trade on the floor by owning or leasing one of the limited seats which represented an ownership stake by the exchange's "members" (this was before demutualization)

You know prop shops.

Names like Group One, Timber Hill (IBKR), Jane Street, CTC, DRW, Cooper Neff, O'Connor, Cutler, Wolverine, and my alma mater SIG.

Traders representing these firms usually have a salary and bonus (discretionary, formulaic, or hybrid)

A little digression. There's a 3rd class of trader which is a "backed" trader which blurs local and firm.

These firms were usually tied to clearing firms and offered economies of scale in risk management, software, data, clearing rates.

I left SIG in 2008 to get backed...

So I've followed DFV's $GME journey from beginning and think it says a lot about what's going on here. How do u go from $50k to $40ml deep value screening in about a year which btw beats $nflx and $amzn growth return holding for decades? A

1)
As someone who tried the blockbuster rinse and repeat short (unsuccessfully btw) on $gme almost a decade ago I'm quite familiar with the name. Burry's re-emergence at the end of 2018 & roughly $5ml gme position disclosure then put the stock on the deep value radar.

2)
$gme dropped like 50% in h1 2019 and his q2 disclosure indicated he had exited the name. It was at this time DFV emerged onto WSB with an essentially i'll take this shot at half MB's cost basis with the console refresh a year out thesis.

3)
I don't recall him fully articulating the thesis then, but that really didn't matter as MB remerged with a 3-4% activist stake by the Aug 2019 about 70% lower than his year end 2018 cost basis. MB wanted a buyback immediately & criticized mgmt past capital alloc failures.

4)
To be clear the thesis did not provide deep dive analysis on $GME or the industry. MB simply seemed to be of the view that the console refresh meant things were not ending anytime soon, and that simply buying back stock in size was the right move for mgmt.

Finance Vs Economics.https://t.co/FknPKywifs business information.

Starting a house based enterprise and not using a business plan is suicide. Distribution is how you will get your product into the arms of your prospects.

1/
Let's talk about returns and return expectations. For traders, this year was probably the biggest opportunity set since...1999?

Many people struggled this year due to obvious reasons but us traders have been living in another reality.

2/
As most of you know I livestream my trading on Twitch every day using simple setups and principles with no rocket science or fancy indicators involved.

I started the year with $3.7M in all trading accounts combined and finishing it with $36M.

That's an 870% return.

/3 It has been the journey of my life and I did not think making more than $100K was possible when I started trading.

A lot of people had insane returns this year, most due to luck, few due to skill. Most WILL give it all back, a few will keep it.

4/
New traders have the tendency to get more agressive and reckless when their accounts go straight up (been there, done that many times).

When you start feeling like a Greek God just having defeated the Titans, that's when things can mostly go downhill and bad things happen.

/5
A lot of traders I have been checking in on over the years are having 5-10-20x returns over their previous years both %- and $-wise.

I'm talking about daytraders, scalpers, swing traders, long biased, short biased. This market had something for everyone.

1/

Get a cup of Bru coffee.

Today I will help you understand a simple implied growth calculator to find a stock buy level. Let's get started.

(A short thread)

2/

As you might know, The value of a stock is the present value of its lifetime cash flows.

For the long term buy and hold investor, the real cash flow from the stock is dividend income over its lifetime.

3/

In 1959, M J Gordon proposed a formula for this. The formula is

Value = D/(r-g)

Whereas

D = Expected dividends.
r = Required rate of return.
g = Dividend growth rate in perpetuity.

A detailed derivation of the formula is given at the end.

4/

Now, let's be honest, it is next to impossible to predict the growth rate in perpetuity for a firm.

So we twist the formula a little bit. Rather than finding out value, we find the *implied growth rate* This helps us to make deals with Mr. Market.

5/

Here is some math:

Value = D/(r-g)

r-g = D/value

D/value is nothing but dividend yield, so we substitute the same.

r-g = Dividend yield

g = r-Dividend yield

*Implied growth = Required rate of return - Dividend yield*

Thoughts heading into 2021: 🎇🎇

We will be sharing some additional stocks in upcoming podcasts, but we've 🤜#Pounded🤛 a lot of stocks in 2020 --> So what are we keeping in 2021 and beyond?

For Full Newsletter Email Us! 📩

[email protected]

Thread Below 👇👇👇👇

Top Winners Since Pounding The Table Started:

👊 $JMIA +475%
🌲 $GRWG +352%
👊 $MGNI +264%
👊 $NTLA +192%
🌲 $TRSSF +190%
👊 $EDIT +142%
👊 $NNOX +136%
👊 $CELH +125%
👊 $MP +122%
👊 $FTCH +120%
👊 $SI +119%
👊 $CRWD +106%
👊 $BLFS +99% (Close enough)

Details Below:

"Heads Of The Table"

We’ve broken more tables than IKEA has on backorder in pounding these so much. These swaggy Mini Monsters grew into full-fledged beasts and likely will continue to dance in 2021!

👊 $MELI
👊 $SE
👊 $TDOC
👊 $FVRR
👊 $SQ
👊 $ETSY

Ecommerce Leaders In 2021: Yes, some of these eCommerce stocks are in "Heads of Table" and some further below in SPAC's

We are looking at these 2 to continue in 2021.

👊 $JMIA
👊 $FTCH

Genomics: These had incredible runs in 2020 and should only continue in 2021. Health is Wealth, if we can find ways to get healthier - convince us Genomics won't continue to flourish

👊 $ARKG - ARK ETF
👊 $BLFS
👊 $CRSP
👊 $EDIT
👊 $NTLA
👊 $NVTA