1. Does the new trade deal deliver for the UK and the EU automotive sectors? I and other colleagues have been working tirelessly over Christmas to answer this question – thanks @mattogg @Mulk_Lloyd!!. Here are my thoughts - warning, very long 🧵ahead!

2. First, a necessary clarification. Comparing the UK-EU FTA with the status quo is simply futile. Even the most ambitious FTA cannot – and it is not intended to – deliver the benefits of the EU Single Market and Customs Union.

3. There is only so much an FTA can deliver. No FTA could avoid creating a customs border. No FTA could waive origin rules. No FTA could avoid new non-tariff barriers. It is no mystery that UK Automotive would have preferred other options precisely because an FTA has limits.

4. To compare apples with apples, a fairer question is not whether the FTA is better than the Single Market - it isn’t - but whether this is the most ambitious FTA we could get for the sector. And I hope the rest of the thread can shed some lights on this point.

5. Having a deal is, in itself, a major positive. The idea that having an FTA or not having one makes little difference could be true for some sectors. This is certainly not the case for Automotive. Without an FTA, tariffs would certainly apply.

As promised, a thread on one of my largest holdings going into the new year...

Allow me to introduce Smart Eye, "the king of DMS"

A little background first

Driver monitoring systems (DMS) are a soon-to-be-introduced safety feature in cars.

As the name suggests, they monitor drivers to ensure they are not tired or distracted while driving and gives them a nudge if they are.

This is going to be legally required to be in all new cars in Europe and North America by the middle of the decade.

As auto OEMs sell on a global basis, what happens in developed markets usually ends up in emerging markets as well.

As a result of this legislation, there is a pretty clear path for increased penetration of DMS in the auto industry.

The slide below shows industry forecasts of around 60% penetration in new cars sold globally by 2025.

As a small aside, Volvo did a great ad for DMS last year. Just priming consumers for what's to

According to S3 Partners, $TSLA shorts have lost $35B in 2020. I talk with many TSLA shorts, and have been on the other side of their trade all year. Here is where $TSLAQ got it wrong: Way under-estimating TSLA TAM, and in thinking ICE-branded EV launches would hurt TSLA.

2/ Street estimates are soaring. $TSLA 2020 and 2021 EPS ests have almost doubled this year, as Y has quickly become TSLA ‘s best selling model with less than 20% cannibaliz’n of M3. Model Y is now being taken global. Meanwhile, China volumes will be 50% of TSLA volume in 2021.

3/ When I argued with shorts about Model Y, they missed that Y was a small SUV and M3 was a small sedan. The two don’t compete. And yet, shorts would argue Y would massively cannibalize M3. Y more than doubled $TSLA ‘s US TAM, from 25% to 66%, and will do the same globally.

4/ From my $TSLAQ discussions, I gathered that few had taken the time to drive the various TSLA models, esp the new Y. None did focus groups with TSLA owners, or very few discussed TSLA with rival dealers, all which shocked me. Their research consisted mainly of current year...

5/ ...and backward-looking financials, and their best materials were charts comparing $TSLA mkt value to ICE mkt values - mindless since going forward TSLA’s competitors are AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, NIO, and RIVN. $TSLAQ would make fun of my forecasts to 2025, saying it was impossible.

1/ Equity crowdfunding or equity investment marketplaces failed. Full stop. Didn’t work.

Here is my synopsis on why the industry hasn’t taken off. Lots of reflection and painful lessons I hope others can learn from.

2/ Reason #1: The financial feedback loop for vc takes yrs. If you want one core reason the industry has not succeeded, it is this. Time between when an investor writes a check and gets confidence she should write again- is way too long to encourage repeat investment

3/ If you are ever at a YC event and some entrepreneur pitches you on a marketplace that helps private companies raise money…..ask how they will solve this issue.

[imagine being at a cocktail event again?]

4/ I missed this point when we started. Frankly the 60+ investors that passed on us also missed it- or at least it never came up as a key concern. Not once.

The difference between credit, with financial feedback loops that took days or months, and equity is huge.

5/ In private investments it is typically >5 yrs before you see the financial feedback. Win or lose thats a long time for most people. If you’re running a VC fund you’re making $ along the way with management fees, but angel investors….are just shelling out checks.

Dear All,
1. A new year of hope started, I thought to pen some of my views about making money (Investing & Trading), these are the points which I keep telling me & I thought to share with you all. I hope, it will help both all. #investing #investingpsychology #tradingpsychology

2. Equity is a riskier way of making money, but still, the ease of control, liquidity & speculation attracts us all, more adrenalin rush in trading versus any other modes of equity-like MF, ETFs, Small-cases, Longer-term investment. #investing #investingpsychology

3. Everyone comes to equity to become millionaire/billionaire/..., but very few become so, otherwise, most of the analyst would not be running webinars or panel of TV or writing books for regular income.

We continue to hear that several $ZIL holders are unable to withdraw their tokens from certain exchanges and their withdrawal transactions seem to have errored out as incorrect nonce.

A thread on status update. 👇

1/ This has only affected a few exchanges, while there are others, where withdrawals are getting processed as expected. Also, given that the network is processing transactions as usual, we understand the frustration of some feeling stuck while others can interact on-chain.

2/ PROBLEM: We have spoken to some of these affected exchanges to better understand the issue at hand. It appears that those exchanges issued several consecutive withdrawal transactions which are expected to include an increasing counter called nonce.

3/ However, if any of the intermediate transactions gets rejected for some reasons, then all the subsequent ones get rejected too as the nonce will no longer be consecutive. We therefore believe that nonces were not correctly handled which led to withdrawals getting affected.

4/ SOLUTION: The solution to the problem is in fact quite simple. All the failed withdrawals can be considered by the exchanges to have been rejected by the network and they can re-issue a new transaction with the correct nonce.

After my first reading of the draft EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement, here is a short thread with some initial thoughts:

1) this is a massive and complex document, covering very diverse & highly specialist fields. No single person could ever plausibly claim properly to master/understand it. So I’ve focused on my own (“big picture”) interests. Not, eg the (in fact marginal) details of fishing quotas

2) Let’s start with how draft treaty is being framed by UK Gov & client press. They compare it to “no deal” & thus treat it as some sort of triumph. Well: even on own terms, that is far from accurate: for many sectors, draft treaty is barely better than no deal at all

3) But of course: such UK Gov framing of draft treaty = entirely if sadly typically misleading. Real comparison should be draft treaty versus what UK already enjoyed for 45 years as a Member State of the EU. And judged by that benchmark: Johnson’s proposed deal is truly pathetic

4) Draft treaty gives UK nothing it didn't already enjoy, in relations with EU, as a Member State in its own right. Eg Johnson boasts about “zero tariffs and zero quotas” – even though we had that already for decades and Brexit simply risked throwing even those basic things away

Patience , A quality needed to be successful in markets.

But when the real capital is put at risk, The patience goes for a toss.

Thread on Why Emotions overtakes patience -

1. Mindsets-

Decisions are taken by either the Higher mind (Frontal lobe) or the Fear based mind .

When decisions are informed by our higher mind, they are more likely to lead to positive outcomes. decisions driven by survival instincts from the past can hold us back.

Primitive mindsets are characterized by a feeling of urgency, high stakes, rigidity, and repetitiveness.

The moment that real capital is put at risk in trading, everything changes ,Trading goes from a logical exercise to a game of emotions.

And after you experience a loss, your brain will start anticipating potential losses instead of gains.

Ever experienced fear of entry in a trade when you had a streak of losses previously, then you have experienced the power of Emotional mind over the rational mind.

2. Emotional Hijacking -

Emotions are not psychological they are biological in nature, that’s why they take over your logical ability and you cant control them even when you want.

Your brain’s prime directive is self-preservation – keeping you alive.

A surge of retail stock trading over the last year lit the fuse that sent shares of GameStop rocketing higher without a clear business reason, market watchers say, squeezing hedge funds that had bet against the retailer and other companies that were out of favor on Wall Street

What is going on? Here are some answers 👇

More individuals have invested in stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic, and experts cite a number of reasons, including lockdowns boosted savings, stimulus putting cash into people’s pockets and extremely low interest rates

Also, a proliferation of trading apps allowed anyone with a smartphone to buy or sell stocks for free. Retail investors’ participation in U.S. equity order flows increased to nearly 20% in 2020 from 15% in 2019, data from Swiss bank UBS showed

What has been the impact of this surge in retail trading?

Big U.S. technology companies were among the beneficiaries last year. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google saw record inflows as their businesses benefited from lockdowns and their stocks soared

💵 With unprecedented stimulus and easy money policies from central banks, investors then shifted to smaller stocks, especially ones that got beaten down during the pandemic

It’s finally here…

A vision...

To turn speaking into a superpower for you.

-In front of investors
-In front of an audience
-in front of every single person

On Deck Performative Speaking applications are

How did we get here?

The journey started in my first year of law school.

Seeing law students struggle to speak in front of the class…

I couldn’t believe my eyes.

So learn the skills, study the best, practice and refine.

Being a trial lawyer taught me what it takes to be a great speaker.

The 3 Cs

-Clear
-Concise
-Confident

Nail these three and good things happened.

Develop a philosophy and then a method.

The philosophy is Performative Speaking.

-Use other art forms as an example to create emotion.

The method is the CAP system.

-Confidence
-Authenticity
-Persuasion

The first two take you 90% of the way.

The last makes you elite.

But that isn’t enough…

Because I needed to teach these skills.

SMU Law needed help teaching persuasive speaking.

They needed help coaching the national mock trial team.

Over 3 years I taught, tested, and iterated.

My students began sweeping best speaker awards.

Education is an investment.

If you're coming to study in Canada, be proactive in choosing a program, especially if you plan to work in Canada

Research and check how relevant your program is

Below are the Top 10 Most Valuable Degrees in Canada according to Royal Bank of Canada.

This ranking is by highest average salaries compared to tuition costs

It is to give info on degrees with good returns on (education) investment

"No matter what program you choose in the end, with careful budgeting, planning & hard work, you can find success in any field." - RBC

1) Business/Management Sciences

The discipline is more tied to math than commerce and will teach students about theories and models in statistics and programming

It will also teach students how to apply the knowledge/skills to a variety of business problems.

This is in demand!

2) Petroleum or Chemical Engineering

They learn about subjects such as fluid mechanics, heat and mass transfer, and process modeling in order to design operations that will transform raw material into specified products for industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, or energy).

3) Finance

Students who specialize in finance will learn how to plan, manage, and analyze the financial aspects of businesses, banks, and other organizations.

They will work as analysts in a variety of financial roles.

1/ What Happens with More Funds than Stocks? (Madhavan, Sobczyk, Ang)

"Funds differ meaningfully in terms of individual stock holdings, and we examine the factor exposures of the typical fund and the cross section of holdings of different funds."

https://t.co/d6vU4Fgszg

2/ * Data on fund holdings are from Morningstar
* Sample: Jan. 1, 2007 to Dec. 31, 2018
* Only funds with at least 80% of holdings from the Russell 3000 universe are considered
* Mean AUM-weighted expense ratio for mutual funds (ETFs) is 70 bps (14.2 bps) as of Q4 2018

3/ "The holdings of ETFs and active mutual funds across U.S. stocks can be efficiently summarized by approximately 10 canonical funds.

"There is more commonality explained by the first few canonical funds for active mutual funds than for ETFs."

4/ "Commonality among equity mutual funds has remained approximately constant, but there has been increased dispersion in ETF offerings.

"We see no apparent rise in concentration or crowding for mutual funds over the period from January 2007 to December 2018."

5/ "We examine commonality in active mutual funds in Morningstar style box categories. While Value and Blend commonality has remained roughly constant over the period 2007-2018, Growth funds have exhibited a marked increase in crowded positions."

That time everyone in Omaha forgot about Berkshire and went crazy for a bubble stock: Level 3 Communications.

Enter Walter Scott, CEO of Kiewit, Omaha's biggest construction company (BRK's offices are at Kiewit Plaza). He and Buffett go way back: "I first got to know Walter when we were teenagers. We both had a crush on the same girl. Walter won her and they ended up getting married."

But seriously, Buffett: "A lot of people like to make simple things complex. Walter does the opposite. He has an ability to cut through what's complicated. He is a man who gives you his word. He is a person of great integrity. People here have tremendous respect for him."

Scott became CEO of Kiewit in 1979. The company had grown big building tunnels, dams, highways. It generated a ton of cash which was reinvested in its "Kiewit Diversified" segment.

A Kiewit executive named James Crowe urged Scott to buy Metropolitan Fiber System which built networks for phone companies.

Crowe renamed it MFS and started building his own networks. It became a competitive local-exchange carrier (CLEC). It spun out and went public in 1993.

What is intangible asset? Why investors should focus on it?

1/ Well, everyone knows an Intangible asset is not physical in nature i.e., it is something that we cannot touch. Let explore more into the concept of intangible assets – a valuable driver for companies.

2/ Intangible assets include goodwill, brand value, patent, copyright, trademark, etc. It is important to evaluate these assets as they are a valuable contributor to a company for long-term success or failure. For instance, companies like Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft

3/ are successful due to significant brand recognition. Similarly, Indian FMCG companies like HUL, Coalgate, Britannia enjoy huge benefits due to investment in brand awareness. IT and Pharmaceutical companies protect their sales through patents, copyright, software licensing.

4/ Most internally created intangible assets are not recorded on the company’s balance sheet or have no recorded book value. For instance, even though a coca-cola logo carries huge brand value, it does not show on the balance sheet because it was created internally, and

A reminder of the Newsnight expose on The Tavistock.

Homophobia was a factor in the resignation of over forty staff over a three year period.

Girls openly telling staff they suffered homophobia in the family and at school.

Eventually they ended up identifying as trans.

Parents openly stated they would prefer a trans kid rather than a gay one subject to parental pressure? Director of GIDs pushing prescribing despite clinical concerns.

1/#VeFam, I see a lot of heated discussions regarding $VTHO and it’s speculative value. I thought I’d write a thread to clear out some misconceptions.

First up, VTHO is NOT yield from an investment ( $VET).The whole argument that VET has to give xx% returns via VTHO is pointless

2/Why? Because VTHO is a utility token required for network participation. While it is good that we ordinary holders can trade it, its primary purpose is to enable entities to use the network. VTHO is not a dividend, it is not yield, it’s simply a network participation enabler

3/is it undervalued? depends on if you’re talking about value arising from utility or speculation. Regarding the former, as long as the daily burn rate is lower than daily generation rate (~37m), value appreciation from utility is not a factor. But this will change.

4/regarding the latter,it’s anyone’s guess. It can go 1000x overnight,like anything in crypto.But remember,this is not a good thing for an enterprise focused utility token
Why?
Bcoz value appreciation from utility is organic. @vechainofficial and their customers can plan for this

5/value appreciation from speculation is not organic. It can disrupt budgets and planning. This is the reason there are several levers in place to cushion the speculation around VTHO. Read this article to understand what they