BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

The insights of the Austrian School of Economics will prove invaluable to investors navigating the distorted global economy of 2021.

This 18-tweet thread walks you through the definitive guide "Austrian School for Investors" by @scholarium_at, @RonStoeferle and @MarkValek.👇

 1/ The roots of the Austrian School can be traced back to its founder Carl Menger, whose 1871 book Principles of Economics provided a new foundation for economic theory and solved the age-old "Paradox of Value".

From Menger's work we can derive 4 pillars of Austrian Investing.
2/ 1: The Subjective Theory of Value recognises that value is not determined by any inherent property of a good, nor by the amount of labor necessary to produce it, but by the importance an acting individual places on it for the achievement of their desired ends.
3/ 2: The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility recognises that as more units of a homogenous good are acquired, the utility derived from each additional unit declines.

This wide-ranging insight helps explain important economic phenomena such as the historical emergence of money.
4/ 3: Methodological Individualism is the principle that economic phenomena result from the actions of individuals.

Collective magnitudes like “the people” cannot act, & therefore cannot be treated as ultimate causes.

Austrians are cautious in their use of economic aggregates.
5/ 4: Causal Realism entails basing economic explanations on the notion of cause and effect grounded in human action.

Austrians reject posited functional relationships between abstract statistical constructions such as CPI, GDP or unemployment.

@saifedean explains👇
6/ These four pillars provide us with a framework for thinking about economics.

Underpinning each is an acknowledgement of a fundamental fact about economic life: that humans act under conditions of scarcity.

When we employ resources there is always the need to make trade-offs.
7/ Scarcity is key to understanding the relationship between consumption, investment and economic growth.

Given that resources are finite at any given time, if we want to increase investment and thereby increase the rate of growth, we need first to reduce present consumption.
8/ "Capital" is another concept important for understanding economic growth.

Unlike Keynesians, Austrians recognise that a nation's capital is a structure made up of distinct goods tailored to specific production stages.

Capital isn't amorphous, nor is it the same as "money".
9/ In a free market, interest rates play an important role in coordinating economic activity.

They help society find the right balance between consumption and investment.

But investors today live in a world where rates are heavily distorted by central bank intervention.
10/ This intervention leads to the periodic booms and busts that are definitive of modern economies.

For investors looking to make sense of this phenomenon, Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) provides an explanation.

@BobMurphyEcon explains👇
11/ In a free market, greater saving leads to a natural fall in interest rates, since more resources have been set aside for production.

For entrepreneurs, low interest rates are a signal that sufficient resources have been made available to undertake projects profitably.
12/ But when central banks manipulate interest rates the crucial coordinating function they play is broken.

Authorities typically intervene to lower interest rates below their natural level by lending new money into existence.

This sends conflicting signals to the market.
13/ It leads to:

>overinvestment in unprofitable projects as entrepreneurs are misled about the state of the economy. (We call these projects "malinvestments")

>overconsumption of consumer goods (and stimulation of late-stage production) due to decreased incentives to save.
14/ Since early and late-stage production cannot be stimulated simultaneously, economic dislocation results.

It reveals itself in a recession: a “cluster of errors" where investors discover the resources needed to complete projects are insufficient.

@CaitlinLong_ explains👇
15/ Whilst timings are notoriously hard to predict, understanding the character of cycles is key to protecting investments.

Metrics such as the Misesian Stationarity Index (Tobin's Q) and Rothbard-Salerno True Money Supply can help us gauge where we are in the cycle.
16/ Several prominent investment strategies have been influenced by ABCT.

They include Harry Brown’s “Permanent Portfolio” which balances gold, cash, stocks and bonds to manage risks of the four scenarios for inflation and growth that are brought about by business cycles.
17/ The recent rise of digital currencies like bitcoin has garnered intense interest from Austrians.

There are risks around its development, but Austrian theory suggests that bitcoin's attributes make it well suited to grow in use as a store of value.

@MarkValek explains👇
18/ The Austrian School provides a sound theoretical foundation for our engagement with economic reality.

It equips us with the tools we need for navigating the uncertainty of a distorted world.

Its insights help us recognize patterns so we can invest wisely and act ethically.
Thank you for reading.

This thread was produced by @TheAustrian3 as a partnership with "Austrian" investment firm Incrementum.

If you enjoyed, please retweet to help its message reach a wider audience.

You can find out more about Incrementum here: https://t.co/9ybj09IgMq
RESOURCES/1

Austrian School of Investors by @scholarium_at, @RonStoeferle and @MarkValek, on which this thread was based, is available on Amazon here: https://t.co/4Q8HRCSZob

Resources by tweet number:

5: Principles of Economics by @saifedean: https://t.co/fmBcyu08Dm
RESOURCES/2

7-14: Roger Garrison ABCT presentations: https://t.co/TP5YM94UjQ

11: Bob Murphy explains ABCT: https://t.co/A554TKiOmL

15: @RaoulGMI & @CaitlinLong_ interview: https://t.co/v9tPsqQ1g5

18: @RealVision: @AshBennington & @MarkValek: https://t.co/lb0dcqMzhv
Another excellent explanation of Austrian Business Cycle Theory is given in this 8 minute talk by @ThomasEWoods: https://t.co/lvpdA8EN4B
For those looking for a deeper dive, this explanation of ABCT by Roger Garrison is recommended: https://t.co/NmfHAjeg4g

His slides, which were the inspiration for my business cycle graphics above, can be viewed here: https://t.co/TP5YM94UjQ

More from Trading

Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A thread on Trend-lines


// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

• Trendline can be formed by two ways-

1. Wicks-

In this method we only connect the wicks to make a trendline, this is a precise way of making a trendline.


// Why only connect the wicks?

There are two type of levels - Precise and Less precise (Which we call zones).

So what we are doing is by only connecting the wicks we are making a precise level where we can take trades, either Mean reversion or Breakout trades.

Examples-
TRADING
SPACVet
SPACVet
@SpacVet
My number 1 stock pick for 2021 is: Pine Island Acquisition Corp.

$PIPP

Let me break down why I think this will be THE SPAC of 2021. 👇

TL:DR – the management team is loaded with President Biden’s closest friends and advisors. No other SPAC has this level of access.

$PIPP company overview:

-focused on defense, government service & aerospace
-perfect focus when you consider who is on their Management Team


$PIPP Management

-here's where it gets EXCITING
-founded by John Thain (ex Merrill Lynch CEO and Uber director)
-then STACKED with veteran Government and Administration key figures


$PIPP Insane Management Connections

-the list of PIPP "DC Partners" includes:

-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of State (Tony Blinken)
-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of Defense (Gen. Lloyd Austin).


$PIPP - The Joe Biden Connection

- Tony Blinken and President Biden are close allies.
- Blinken has been an advisor to Biden for decades
- Blinken set to be appointed Sec. of State
TRADING , CATEGORY
Advertisement
Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,


You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.


If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet
TRADING
Nikita Poojary
Nikita Poojary
@niki_poojary
#NIFTY

Bearish engulfing on monthly or bullish harami on Weekly , which one will play out?

Outlook for the week Jan 2 - 6, 2022.

THREAD: Deconstructing NIFTY on 5 different TF's.

#NIFTY

1. Monthly TF:

• Although the structure in monthly TF is of HH-HL, December monthly candle is a more of a bearish engulfing.

• However it is exactly at the support

• 17800-18000 looks like a strong support.


#NIFTY

2. Weekly TF:

• 17800- 1800 used to be a resistance in April & August 2022.

• However post BO of those levels, they might act as an immediate support.

• Current weekly candle is closer to the support (erstwhile resistance)


#NIFTY

3. Daily TF:

• After a sharp vertical fall, we expected a buying momentum

• Also Nifty filled the Gap.

• Strong support at 17800


#NIFTY

4. Hourly TF:

Moving within the rising channel, albiet the channel is quite steep.
TRADING
il Capo Of Ethereum
il Capo Of Ethereum
@CryptoCapo_
As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.
TRADING

You May Also Like

Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
ARULMIGU SRI PARTHASARATHY SWAMY KSHETRAM, CHENNAI (TN)

Divya Desha where Perumal appears with moustache of a Sarathi (charioteer) to conduct Arjun’s Rath in Kurukshetra war.
Here, Venkatkrishna-Parthasarthy is present with his entire family.


He is flanked by Sri Rukmini, Sri Balarama, Satyaki, son Pradyumn and grandson Anirudha.
It is said that on the request of Raja Sumathirajan, Sri Perumal appeared and stayed here as Arjun’s charioteer (Partha-sarathi).


He is without chakra as he had promised not to wield weapons in Mahabharata war.
The face has scars caused by Bhishma’s arrows on Arjun. Prabhu took the arrows on himself to protect Arjun.


The Naivedyam offered here does not have spices. Ghee is used in it to cure Prabhu’s wounds. Sarkarai Pongal is famous here.

It is said that Rishi Bhrigu found Devi Lakshmi (as Vedvalli) in Alli flower in the mandir pushkarini. Later, Sri Ranganatha came here to marry her.
ALL
Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
#Guruvayur_Krishna_Bhakthi  🕉
#Guruvayur
#Storytime
Beautiful Story of Guruvayurappan

Poonathanam Namboothiri was a great devotee of Guruvayurappan. One day Poonthanam was going to Guruvayur Kshetram. It was night time and eventhough Namboothiri was tired he continued to walk


Suddenly some thieves came and blocked his way. Poonthanam cried for Shri Krishna to help. Thieves snatched all valuables from him, but Namboothiri holding his Bhaghavatam book called Shri Krishna to help. That time a man came in a horse back and fought with thieves and protected


Namboothiri. Poonthanam thanked Krishna for helping him from danger and said to the man that "Shri Krishna has send you here and I don't know how to thank you".  The man smiled and told that he is Mangattachan, minister of  samoodhiris. Poonthanam once again thanked him and


gave his ring to Mangattachan as a token of thanks and continued his journey. He reached Guruvayur early morning for Nirmalya Darshan. Temple poojari came near him and told that Guruvayurappan came in his dreams and asked to hand over the ring to poonthanam.


When he opened Kshetra Nada poonthanam was surprised to see his ring on Guruvayurappan, which he gifted to Mangattachan. He understood that it was Guruvayurappan who came as Mangattachan to protect him. This is how Bhagwan treat his devotees.

Hare Krishna
🙏🕉🙏
ALL
Advertisement
Hindu Media Wiki
Hindu Media Wiki
@HinduMediaWiki
Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays

In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.


One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.

Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :

Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa

This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste


The procedure to make it is in the link

https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm

It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are

1. It clears the phlegm in child's throat caused due to continuous milk intake. It clears the tracts and breathing is effortless.
2. Digestion

For children who haven't got their speech and is delayed than usual should feed this vasa on these days in week atleast for 6months. Don't get carried away with this dialogue
"Some gain speech little late"
CHILDREN
Anumah, Abdulraheem Okehi \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f52c\U0001f1f3\U0001f1ec \U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7 \U0001f1f5\U0001f1f9 \U0001f1ea\U0001f1f8
Anumah, Abdulraheem Ok...
@AnumahABD
Department List of UCAS-China PROFESSORs for ANSO, CSC and UCAS (fully or partial) Scholarship Acceptance
1) UCAS School of physical sciences Professor
https://t.co/9X8OheIvRw
2) UCAS School of mathematical sciences Professor

3) UCAS School of nuclear sciences and technology
https://t.co/nQH8JnewcJ
4) UCAS School of astronomy and space sciences
https://t.co/7Ikc6CuKHZ
5) UCAS School of engineering

6) Geotechnical Engineering Teaching and Research Office
https://t.co/jBCJW7UKlQ
7) Multi-scale Mechanics Teaching and Research Section
https://t.co/eqfQnX1LEQ
😎 Microgravity Science Teaching and Research

9) High temperature gas dynamics teaching and research section
https://t.co/tVIdKgTPl3
10) Department of Biomechanics and Medical Engineering
https://t.co/ubW4xhZY2R
11) Ocean Engineering Teaching and Research

12) Department of Dynamics and Advanced Manufacturing
https://t.co/42BKXEugGv
13) Refrigeration and Cryogenic Engineering Teaching and Research Office
https://t.co/pZdUXFTvw3
14) Power Machinery and Engineering Teaching and Research
EDUCATION
Tweeting Historians
Tweeting Historians
@Tweetistorian
@ChenHuailun here. I'm adding a supplementary thread before today's scheduled one to expand on the origins and early history of the Church of the East (aka the Nestorian Church) ~ahc #jingjiao 1/


The Church of the East traces its origins to the christological position of the School of Antioch, which held that the human and divine and human essences (ουσία) of Christ were united in a single prosopon (πρόσωπον). ~ahc #jingjiao 2/


This ran against the position of the School of Alexandria, which held that the two essences of Christ were united in a single hypostasis (ὑπόστασις). In general terms, hypostasis is more inherent than prosopon. ~ahc #jingjiao 3/


One implication of the Antiochene rejection of the hypostatic union is that Mary could not accurately be called the Theotokos, or God-bearer. Instead, she is the Christotokos, the Christ-bearer. ~ahc #jingjiao 4/


These Christological debates were further complicated by Syriac terms such as 'kyana' (ܟܝܢܐ), associated with 'ousia' but later translated to 'hypostasis' by Syrian Orthodox; and 'qnoma ' (ܩܢܘܡܐ), sometimes contentiously translated as 'hypostasis' or 'person.' ~ahc #jingjiao 5/
RELIGION


Category Partner: Enkryptopedia