BC TRADING
Saved by @Alex1Powell

0/ We've highlighted FinTech infrastructure co's like BR, FIS, JKHY, MA, V, ICE, NDAQ, etc. as companies w/ a variety of moats that have led to dominant mkt share & outperformance despite being 50+ years old on avg.

$FISV had their investor day yesterday and laid out the why.

 1/ $FISV highlights the fact that they have #1 market share in core accounting processing for $1-$50B FI’s; they are doing $1.0B in global e-Commerce revenue, and have more than $30B available for capital allocation over the next 5 years (read more M&A for FinTech co's)
2/ They have global reach with clients in more than 100 countries, more than 1,000 products & services, 10,000+ FI clients, & 6M merchant locations.

All while being #1 as a core account processor, merchant acquirer, bill pay, P2P payments, etc...
3/ This business model + market positioning has led to incredibly strong outperformance since inception ~35 years ago with cumulative $FISV shareholder returns of +42,171% vs. the $SPY at 3,327% & Nasdaq at 4,355%.
4/ $FISV has grown via a series of acquisitions over the past 30 years most recently the $22B tie up w/ First Data.

They highlight the progress on the deal & new goals post integration.

M&A is a skill & FISV has it financially; tech integration leaves something to be desired
5/ They highlight 4 key pillars (all of which they claim #1 market share)
(i) Merchant Solutions
(ii) Integrated Banking
(iii) Digital Payments
(iv) Card Payments
6/ Given the unparalleled size & scale they have unique access to data which should in theory inform new products / use-cases for their end clients.

They conduct more than 12,000 financial tx / second & reach nearly ~100% of US households
7/ In 2020 even the leader in FinTech infrastructure boasts about being "nearly all in the cloud" which shows how far the industry has to go.
8/ $FISV is very much focused on the future of banking / open banking which requires multi-industry distribution of financial services / products enabled by cloud & open APIs
9/ The Next-Gen Banking core requires:
(i) Flexible API Service Architecture
(ii) Security & Fraud Tools
(iii) Third Party Integrations
(iv) Data & Analytics

This is a slide I imagine a number of BaaS companies look to emulate in future decks.
10/ $FISV also provided some healthy market share data.

They believe $90B was spent in '20 by Financial Institution on IT which is projected to grow at a 6.3% CAGR through '24.

For those that believe FinTech B2B infrastructure is saturated thats a portion of the pie
11/ $FISV has their own land & expand strategy and sees another $4.7B of opportunity for add-on solutions.
12/ $FISV is the #1 issuer processor with unparalleled leadership in card payments. They have 1.4B accounts on file across 6,000 clients, and 80 countries.

With talks of @Marqeta going public next year this will be an interesting comp for this business line.
13/ They highlight their model is for large issuers w/ a single platform that delivers debit, commercial cc, prepaid, installment loans, private label, & general purpose accounts.

This is part of the oppty co's like Marqeta & Galileo saw $FISV won't entertain the startup.
14/ On the payment side $FISV highlights the growth in payment revenue, RTP, Bill Payment, P2P transactions, and A2A transfers all as part of a large but ever growing mkt opportunity.
15/ $FISV pegs a $1.0B+ revenue opportunity for digital payments. Their NOW Network currently serves 7 of the top 10 U.S. financial institutions.
16/ $FISV's growth plans for payments are focused on:
(i) Omnichannel Capabilities
(ii) Horizontal Commerce Solutions
(iii) Leading Technology
(iv) Payments Innovation
(v) Local Execution
(vi) Integration Advantages
17/ Besides growth domestically there are significant opportunities ex-US in APAC, LatAm, India, and SE Asia, all areas where $FISV has a strong market presence & will continue to invest / buy given the growth pot'l.
18/ Like most companies in this market $FISV talks up their recurring revenue opportunity as subscriptions are eating the world (@pipe)
19/ $FISV expects to grow top line at 7-9% / year and EPS at 15-20% / year.

Yet it currently trades at ~22.5x EPS and 16.5x EV/EBITDA effectively market multiples.

More from Trading

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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Sarang Sood
Sarang Sood
@SarangSood
FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)
TRADING
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Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Having now taken a few days to digest the detail of the UK-EU agreement, here's a couple of observations from me on the deal, what it means, how we got here, & where it might take future UK-EU relations.

(A long thread)

First, let's be clear that negotiating a deal in 9 months, against the odds, and in the middle of a pandemic, is an achievement. It's too easy to underestimate the difficulty of negotiating over the screen for 4 months, from Mar-June, and under enormous pressure. /2

Both @DavidGHFrost & @MichelBarnier and their teams, deserve a lot of credit for sticking up with it in hard circumstances, often with lacking political clarity, & high stakes.

This shouldn't preclude us, or MPs and MEPs, from looking critically at the deal on the table. /3

That we have a deal is a result of the UK & EU having found a way to protect their core defensive interests.

From the EU's view, integrity of the single market is preserved with level-playing field obligations which go virtually beyond any other 3rd-country (even the Swiss). /4

For its part, the UK has negotiated down EU ask on dynamic alignment on state aid; eliminated any references to EU law; removed any role for the ECJ (NB not in the whole future relationship, due to EU law in NI Protocol); and preserved its right to control access to waters. /5
TRADING
TraderLion
TraderLion
@TraderLion_
20 lessons from trading legend Stan Weinstein:

Volume is a gauge of how powerful the buyers are... Never trust a breakout that isn't accompanied by a significant increase in volume.

1/20
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
How to save tax when income is above 50 lakhs?

Here are 9 benefits of trading in a corporate account: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1. Make a Pvt Ltd Company.

Form a company with family members and trade under it. The family members should be directors of the company. Will explain why later.

Why form a company?
You will only need to pay 25% flat tax. Individuals have to pay 30% tax above 10 lakh profits.

2. Surcharge Benefits:

You will be charged a lower surcharge in a corporate account.

Check the picture below:


Total Tax Outlay:

The total tax outlay for individuals is 30% plus surcharge. If you really earn a lot (10 cr +) then you will be paying 42% tax.

Whereas in a company you'll be paying a maximum of 28% tax.

This is how rich people save a lot of their money by paying low taxes.

3. Expenses can be deducted.

All expenses can be deducted from a company account.

Companies:
1. First make a profit.
2. then deduct the expenses
3. & Pay tax on the remaining income

Individuals:
1. First Profit
2. Then Pay tax
3. Expenses with whatever is left.
ALL , TRADING , TAXES RATTIBHA

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1/Politics thread time.

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Sri Devi Karumariamman mandir, Chennai, Tamilnadu

Sri Devi Karumariamman mandir is in Thiruverkadu, a suburb of Chennai. It is said that God Muruga came here and obtained the 'Vel' (spear) from His mother, Goddess Karumari (an avatar of Parvathi) 1/n


to fight the demon Suran and hence this place was called as 'Vel kadu' and became as Verkadu. As per legend Devi Karumariamman once disguised as a soothsayer visited Bhagwan Surya, the Sun God, to predict His future. 2/n


Not realising that the soothsayer is none other than Sakthi Matha, Surya ignored Her. Angered by his indifference, Devi Karumariamman immediately retreated. Bhagwan Surya lost His glory and the earth plunged into darkness. 3/n


Bhagwan Surya then realised His folly and pleaded forgiveness from Devi Karumariamman. In order to pacify mother Karumariamman, Suryadev said that His rays would fall on Her directly twice in a year and touch her feet. (in the month of Panguni (March- April) & during (Sep - Oct)


Mother Karumari Amman is worshipped here in two forms.A swayambu (self manifested) with only head visible above the ground and another one in a graceful sitting posture with all Parasakthi features,with four arms holding skull, sword, trishul, udukkai (damru). 5/n
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Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Thiruvairanikulam Mahadeva Temple
Ernakulam Kerala🚩
#temples

Temple is known as Sabarimala of Women

Thiruvairanikulam Mahadeva Temple is situated on the banks of the Periyar River. Siva Temple has a separate sannidhi for Parvathi Devi which will be open only for 12 days a year


The Nadathurappu Mahothsavam happens every year on Malayalam month of Dhanu. On opening day, a grand procession starting from Akavoor Mana carries the ornaments of Devi to the temple. Swayamvara Archana is the main pooja here to clear the obstacle in marriages.
Legend is that 👇


Vigraham existed in another place called Iranikulam. A Namboodiri of Sreemoolanagaram used to visit the Iranikulam temple regularly. Akavoor Chathan, a boatman will take him to the Iranikulam temple and back. Because of Bhakthi of Namboodiri, Shiva traveled with him to his place.


Akavoor Chathan identified Siva chaitanyam and their family built a temple here. Parvati devi herself will cook Nevidyam here for Shiva, which was witnessed by a priest. Devi was angry at this and decided to leave the place. But when the priest offered his sincere apology👇


Devi blessed him and told that she will be present here 12 days in a year. Thus the period which begins from Thiruvathirai Day in Dhanu is known as the Nadathurappu festival.
Temple Nada opens today night.
Picture credit: Google.
🙏🕉🙏
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Lu_lu\U0001f498
Lu_lu💘
@luciame16
Some thoughts on episode 53 of #Hercai

Love,that is not real,has no passion. Its fire turns into embers, it doesn’t not smell. The day, the night, the moon&year burn without sun, light, comfort&sleep.
Ömer Hayyam

#Reyyan #Miran #ReyMir #EbruŞahin #AkınAkınözü
#HercaiThoughts


1
PRAISE
The praise in this episode goes foremost to Ebru because she portrayed Reyyan so realistically like a woman who truly lost her unborn child. I was in awe and pain watching her along the episode, all her breakdowns and tears were so real.
#Hercai

2
Of course also Akın took his part and did his part masterfully, but he rightfully was the one who stood aside in this specific episode that needed to be about Reyyan’s pain and thus concentrated on Ebru.
#Hercai

3
And last but not least, if I say thank you to something that B gave us this year, then it’s to have Ali as our director. Also in this episode we saw the artistic eye behind every shot and I loved it.
#Hercai

4
OVERALL COMMENT
I don’t know who wrote ep. 52 but ep. 53 was going strong once more on symbols: roses, stones, fire and trees were incorporated and especially the ReyMir dialogues were written very well. I truly loved every ReyMir scene.
So let's get into it.
#Hercai
CULTURE


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