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Knowledge sharing initiative Book 3: "Zurich Axioms" by Max Gunther

The book crystallizes how to think about taking investment bets (position sizing), and how to reduce risks in investing & speculation. It focuses on teaching a balance between rewards & risks.

(1/n)

 Here are the key takeaways from the book:

1. Take sizeable bets in life: Taking small bets will give you a good night's sleep as you have very little to lose, but the important point is "it won't ever make you rich".

(2/n)
2. Taking size-able risk is necessary to get rich but make sure you don't go bankrupt taking that risk.

3. Don't diversify too much as gains & losses will nullify each other.

(3/n)
4. Be less greedy to make money - Book some profits when you see a sudden huge increase in wealth - fear of regret will stop you from booking profits but don't be greedy as consistent streaks of lucks are rare in life.

(4/n)
5. Cut losses when you go wrong don't start praying that your losses will recover rather act quickly take some loss and sell out.

(5/n)
6. Taking losses is difficult as you have
a) Fear of regret what is value recovers - after some time it actually may but very rarely in a short span of time

b) Painful to take losses & most importantly accepting that you were wrong

(6/n)
7. Forecasting is difficult people generally forecast 30 things and 1 goes right and they calmly ignore the remaining 29.

(7/n)
8. Humans love security hence they love forecasting the future.
9. Humans seek patterns even in things full-on randomness - it's difficult to accept a lot of things happen due to luck.

(8/n)
10. "Don't confuse correlation with causation" - it might happen Sachin may hit a century every time it rains but that's pure luck, not the real reason.

(9/n)
11. Never be too attached to your idea always evaluate it against new ideas coming your way.
12. Optimism Vs Confidence - optimism means expecting the best but confidence means the ability to manage the worst - always seek confidence - optimism a lot of time is just hope

(10/n)
13. Disregard what everybody tells you until you have independently verified and thought over it calmly.
14. Being against the crowd can cause anxiety especially in investing as your predictions are based on unreliable future.

(11/n)
15. Sometimes the crowd can be right but not always.
16. Don't average down when something is falling just to lower your cost - ask yourself if you were to be a fresh buyer would you have bought it now at current rates & if the answer is NO then book the loss and move on.

(12/n)
17. Future is unknowable - Expect the unexpected - you should prepare yourself to react to its possibilities which can be both advantageous or disadvantageous

Credits: @FinnacleAcademy

Here is the link to the book if anyone wants to read the full book - https://t.co/Ky4dM4BEBx
@unseenvalue
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Thread Best books recommendation by one of best investor I knew @insharebazaar (Virtually)

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Learn Investing Lessons From a Top Fund Manager in India

24 Videos selected from 24000+ Video repositories (BQ Prime @_nirajshah)

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2) Kenneth Andrade

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As part of our Knowledge sharing initiative by @FinnacleAcademy and @Investmentbook1, here we are on our post 2 with some of the most important key takeaways of the book “Masterclass with super investors” by @vishalmittal22 & @basrars

Here we go! (1/n)


Masterclass with super investors is one of the best books covering the investment strategies & journey of renowned domestic investors. Our summary has been segregated in 2 parts, A) Common traits in investment ideologies of these stalwarts B) Investor specific key takeaways (2/n)

A)Let's look at a few common points in these Stalwarts' investment ideologies 1)Invest (higher % of portfolio) when you have conviction backed by sound logic 2)You need to be bullish on India to make investments in Indian cos. bcoz majority of Indian cos. are domestically focused

3. New Bull markets have new leaders when a bull markets ends the stocks which have gained the most falls the most 4. The entry price that you pay for a company should be very cheap so that even if your assumptions go wrong in future you don't end up losing money (4/n)

5. We get attached to stocks which have given us a lot of returns in past even though in current & future expected scenarios they seem overvalued 6. Focus on art of disciplined selling-it's imp. to have a sound selling mechanism just buying at right price wont create wealth.(5/n)
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Like humans , stocks too have different nature and if you are trading every stock the same way then this thread may be for you.

A thread on Nature of stocks and how it can help you to improve your trading results.


First start with what is the nature of stocks ?

I broadly categorize stocks in two categories-

1. The momentum stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the moves are swift in nature, or we can say that the pullbacks in a trend are smaller.

2. The AKBC stocks-

These are the stocks where most of the trending moves comes with deep pullbacks.


Examples-


So the purpose of categorizing these stocks, is that we Trade those stocks/instruments which are more suited to our style.

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Here's how the UK's situation will change after the transition period ends, compared to our former EU membership...

(Come back to this thread. It will keep growing!)

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Greg Duncan \U0001f981
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Many traders have no consistency when sizing their positions.

The pros have this down to a science.

Here's my dead simple, 3-step guide to position sizing (and to outperforming 99% of other traders in the process):

Step 1:

Define how much of your account you're willing to risk per trade.

Personally, I never risk more than 1% of my account equity.

If I have $100,000 account, I will never risk more $1,000.

This ensures I will never blow up my account on one single trade.

There are successful traders who risk 2-3% of their account per trade, but I find it most calming to risk 1% or less.

The first step in this process is completely up to you - only you can dictate how much risk you can tolerate.

Step 2:

Look for entries & exits that are within 5% (preferably less) of each other.

This means if I buy a stock & have a 5% stop loss, I can put a 20% equity position on & still be risking 1% of my equity.

Your account will thank you w/ 20% in a stock that goes up 100%.

Step 3:

Position size using this formula:

Total equity (100%) / Trade Stop Loss %

So, if your stop loss is 4%, here's the math:

100% equity / 4% stop loss = 25% Equity Position Size

(assuming 1% equity risk).

Here's another hypothetical calculation:
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Introduction to imbalance charts (orderflow trading):

A 🧵

(1/n)

Orderflow charts essentially show the real time buying and selling happening in the markets.

In below chart, you can see how market sell orders are shown to the bid side and market buy orders are shown to the ask side.

(2/n)


Using this, one can identify big buying and selling happening at various prices.

Imbalance charts takes this one step forward. How so? Read on to find out.

(3/n)

Imbalance charts shows buying and selling imbalances at various price points. How does it matter?

Imbalance here implies to what extent is buying more than selling and vice versa.

(4/n)

Why is that important? As a trader, if we know that buying at a particular level is x times more than selling or vice versa, it would help us understand the strength of supply or demand coming into the market.

(5/n)
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प्राचीन काल में गाधि नामक एक राजा थे।उनकी सत्यवती नाम की एक पुत्री थी।राजा गाधि ने अपनी पुत्री का विवाह महर्षि भृगु के पुत्र से करवा दिया।महर्षि भृगु इस विवाह से बहुत प्रसन्न हुए और उन्होने अपनी पुत्रवधु को आशीर्वाद देकर उसे कोई भी वर मांगने को कहा।


सत्यवती ने महर्षि भृगु से अपने तथा अपनी माता के लिए पुत्र का वरदान मांगा।ये जानकर महर्षि भृगु ने यज्ञ किया और तत्पश्चात सत्यवती और उसकी माता को अलग-अलग प्रकार के दो चरू (यज्ञ के लिए पकाया हुआ अन्न) दिए और कहा कि ऋतु स्नान के बाद तुम्हारी माता पुत्र की इच्छा लेकर पीपल का आलिंगन...

...करें और तुम भी पुत्र की इच्छा लेकर गूलर वृक्ष का आलिंगन करना। आलिंगन करने के बाद चरू का सेवन करना, इससे तुम दोनो को पुत्र प्राप्ति होगी।परंतु मां बेटी के चरू आपस में बदल जाते हैं और ये महर्षि भृगु अपनी दिव्य दृष्टि से देख लेते हैं।

भृगु ऋषि सत्यवती से कहते हैं,"पुत्री तुम्हारा और तुम्हारी माता ने एक दुसरे के चरू खा लिए हैं।इस कारण तुम्हारा पुत्र ब्राह्मण होते हुए भी क्षत्रिय सा आचरण करेगा और तुम्हारी माता का पुत्र क्षत्रिय होकर भी ब्राह्मण सा आचरण करेगा।"
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The Straddle is a delta neutral strategy and it is important to keep deltas in check during the course of the Trade and not let them run away from you. Of course Volatility is the elephant in the room- but not going there as that will require a separate discussion

The first and most common method is to go 'inverted.' That is to say to shift the untested side to generate additional Premium and increase the runway to Breakeven. So if you start with a Straddle at 700 and price goes to 740, you can move the PE up to say 720.

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The second method is to shift the entire Straddle in the direction of the move. So if you have a 700 Straddle and Price goes to 740, you can shift the Straddle to 720. If you time this right, it can generally be done at virtually no cost or minimal cost.
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