SNP thread

1. Scotland's independence rested on the UK staying in the single market - that is why we saw repeated Brexit related litigation in the Scottish courts.

2. If an independent Scotland wished to join the EU, a hard border between Scotland & England would be required to protect the single market & prevent migrants using Scotland as a route into England.

3. Then there are the issues re currency & debt which would need to be settled before EU membership became a serious proposal.

Many in the SNP realise this, hence the divisions we're witnessing.

4. Just as the Brexit Party popularity waned after mission accomplished, the SNP's popularity rests on campaigning, rather than achieving what they're campaigning for.

Polls show that a hard border isn't popular in a country that relies heavily on tourism.

5. The SNP would have been better placed to set their sights lower & supported an Efta/EEA Brexit, but they went all out to stop the UK exiting the EU and ultimately lost.

A hollowed out cause is all that remains for the SNP, with no realistic prospect of success.

thread

LESS IS MORE?

Fishing Opportunities

1. I'm reading the summary on the UK/EU trade agreement & have some concerns. It's not the full blown text, just an outline of the negotiated agreement so I may be needlessly cynical, we'll have to wait & see.

2. The 25% UK uplift of the value the EU member states catch in UK waters.

I see difficulties with this whichever way I try to spin it to myself:
a) The EU are reducing quotas in fishing waters for some species due to issues with sustainability.

3. So our uplift could cause over fishing of stocks in our own waters. The summary doesn't mention if/how EU access to our waters will be reduced?

b) But assuming the quotas are reduced in line with other member states waters, we could have a reduced income rather than uplift.

4. The 25% uplift is implemented over 5 yrs. So for the sake of argument let's assume it's 5% per yr. But if EU quotas are being reduced by an average of say 10% by weight, that 10% has a value attached to it & our annual uplift will be calculated in line with the lower quotas.

5. Although in theory there'd be a point in 2 yrs where our 5% increments would match the reduced EU quotas, the scientific advisers are calling for greater reductions in quotas to allow stocks to recover, so it's likely quotas will be cut again.