Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble:
Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble
A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -
Unfortunately, they're not available to the public (even Bernstein's client website cuts off at 2003), but happy to give more details if necessary
Unfortunately, the quip "it's not a bubble if everyone says it is" just isn't true
Investors were comparing the internet sector to tulip mania as early as mid-98. Bernstein held an entire conference on it in June 99!
In truth, the hard part about the tech bubble wasn't noticing it. The hard part was timing it
Our equity strategist tried in January 99... he was off by 14 months (and another 30 point gap in value vs growth)
Nobody noticed in March 2000 when it finally popped. Our equity strategist (who bet his career on it!) didn't catch on until June
See the valuation table below, 1 year before the top
Yes, Microsoft traded at 70x earnings. But Coca Cola was 43x. Pfizer was 92x. Every stock here was a disaster over the next 10 years...
The internet stocks were a sideshow. In 2000, the software sector had a $1 trillion market cap, 20% net margins, 20% annual growth
The problem? It was trading at 16x sales
The bubble popped in Q1 2000. Fundamentals didn't decelerate until Q4 2000.
It was reflexivity at work. Lower stock prices = less capex spend = less revenue growth = lower stock prices. A vicious cycle
More from Trading
As this year comes to an end, here are the 11 most powerful threads on Subasish Pani exclusively compiled for you all.
Collborated with @AdityaTodmal
1/ Important concepts from Power of Stocks - Subasish
Important Concepts from Power of Stocks\u2014 Subhasish Pani
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) August 12, 2022
7+ years of trading experience in 14 tweets\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
2/ Important concepts with video links of Subasish
There are plenty of videos of Subhasish Pani from Power of Stocks.
— Aditya Todmal (@AdityaTodmal) April 17, 2022
You already know those.
Instead, here are 12 concepts from his videos that will make you a better trader\u2013\u2013not worse:\U0001f9f5
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
3/ The 5 EMA
Subasish Pani revealed the most simple, yet successful strategy: 5EMA set up!
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) July 3, 2022
Here is a thread of 23 video clips on the 5EMA set-up that will save you hundreds of hours and available to you for no cost!
5EMA set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal
4/ The Bollinger Band set-
A set up which has a minimum Risk/Reward (R/R) of 1:4
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) October 2, 2022
This set up can be used for intraday, option selling, option buying, as well as investing.
Maximum profit strategy by Subasish Pani.
Bollinger band set-up: \U0001f9f5!
Collaborated with @AdityaTodmal pic.twitter.com/aEIUVQF2XY