BC TRADING

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philippe laffont
@plaffont 5 years, 5 months ago 620 views

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To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!

3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.

4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.

5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)

6/ But I did go see Steve Job on stage present the new iPhone and I knew it immediately. Listening to your instincts (and sleeping on them for a few days to double check) that was it. Nothing very clever.

7/ In 2007 apple traded at 30x EPS but only 3x 5 years out. The art of growth investing is realizing a stock that appears expensive today can be dirt cheap 5-7 years later. Multi baggers are the source of most outperformance and hide many mistakes.

8/ Once you find a multi bagger it’s time to peel the onion. Who was going to draft or collide with all this value creation? Apple had many implications for incumbents like Nokia and Blackberry but also created powerful new semiconductor companies.

9/ Public investors are not always as imaginative as private investors. But they dispose of a large library of good and business models and can quickly zero in on the key metrics that matter. Not all growth is created equal and not every projection is to be accepted.

10/ What has worked for me is focusing on TAM (market size), earnings, growth and the corresponding P/E multiple 5-7 years out. That means I’m a very mediocre macro and cyclical investor though I need to be reminded of that more than I care to admit.

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// What are trend-lines?

Trend-lines are support and resistance lines which are formed by connecting Important swing points.

The beauty of using them is that We can use them when stock is not Respecting the Horizontal S&R zones, they can indicate us when the trend may change.

// Things To consider while Making trendlines?

• A trendline formed by using 3 Major-Swing points is a potential trendline, But we will also use 2 points to form a trendline, will discuss how, as you read further.

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1. Wicks-

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Whenever the index is moving in a single direction, its important to go with the trend.

A few weeks ago when BNF broke out of the cup and handle pattern, all we had to do was sell PEs.

Pls note: weekly TF chart is attached to just show the C&H BO pic.twitter.com/z0wgUzJW8t
— Nikita Poojary (@niki_poojary) December 18, 2022

Eg

#VOLTAS Another cup & handle pattern for cash positional pic.twitter.com/Jsc99xJfwY
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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.

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