To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!
3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.
4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.
5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)
6/ But I did go see Steve Job on stage present the new iPhone and I knew it immediately. Listening to your instincts (and sleeping on them for a few days to double check) that was it. Nothing very clever.
7/ In 2007 apple traded at 30x EPS but only 3x 5 years out. The art of growth investing is realizing a stock that appears expensive today can be dirt cheap 5-7 years later. Multi baggers are the source of most outperformance and hide many mistakes.
8/ Once you find a multi bagger it’s time to peel the onion. Who was going to draft or collide with all this value creation? Apple had many implications for incumbents like Nokia and Blackberry but also created powerful new semiconductor companies.
9/ Public investors are not always as imaginative as private investors. But they dispose of a large library of good and business models and can quickly zero in on the key metrics that matter. Not all growth is created equal and not every projection is to be accepted.
10/ What has worked for me is focusing on TAM (market size), earnings, growth and the corresponding P/E multiple 5-7 years out. That means I’m a very mediocre macro and cyclical investor though I need to be reminded of that more than I care to admit.

More from Trading

12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll learn in this thread:

1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy

Let's dive in ↓

1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):

The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.

Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.

Sell directional credit spreads with capped


@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data

Don't trade till 9:45 Am.

Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.

Check combined premium and put a stop on individual


@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)

This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.

To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high

or Below yesterday's day's

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Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.