BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

 The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support. https://t.co/HIdtRvMSVk
School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic. https://t.co/VLlGt79wi1
The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.
Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia). https://t.co/8qF2hn2rwD
This is a neat possible channel for the education-fertility linkage. The effect size they observe is yuuuuuuge.
People with Facebook friends in areas with high COVID cases, and who saw more FB posts about folks getting sick and hospitalized, did more social distancing and were less likely to post about reopening. https://t.co/vze86IGjc4
This is a pretty strong argument that the media should have been broadcasting more images and videos of human suffering in hospitals and elsewhere and fewer videos of wait lines for grocery stores.
This paper also shows an educational reform altering attitudes towards cousin marriage and also reducing its frequency: https://t.co/x2CB7TE7dA

More from Lyman Stone 石來民

Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
Ulysses S. Grant would like a WORD


Or Teddy Roosevelt. Or Dwight Eisenhower. Or Andrew Jackson. Or Abraham Lincoln. Or George Washington. Or Zachary Taylor. Or any of numerous presidents who were honest-to-goodness battle-hardened warriors.

James Monroe fought the Hessians at Trenton and nearly died of wounds sustained there, then wintered in Valley Forge, then fought until Monmouth, then repeatedly tried to raise new regiments for the war until he went bankrupt doing it.

James Monroe, of the Era of Good Feelings, longest serving president of all time.... was in the boats crossing the icy Delaware.

Andrew Jackson was in a duel. He was shot in the chest right by his heart.

But he didn't go down. He stood there and, while bleeding out, steadily took aim and killed the dude who shot him.

Stone cold.
TRUMP
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
After a couple years of ads telling men to do laundry turned out, weirdly, to not boost fertility, Korea is back to financial incentives, which prior research has shown do work but at a very high price.

Korea is adding a $275/month allowance for the first year of a baby's life, increasing the pregnancy medical benefit by $400 or so, and providing an $1800 baby bonus. There's also some unspecified benefits related to leave and high-parity families.

The thing to understand is that these efforts are not *actually* huge. Quoting things in won gives you big numbers so it's easy to lose sight of the fact that we're not talking about enough money to actually offset a large share of wages.

I'm a fan of baby bonuses and first-year benefits. They're probably the most bang for the buck.

But this isn't actually all that many bucks!

These benefits add up to about $5,500 in benefits. A similar program compared to average incomes in the US would be about $8,700.
FINANCE
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Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
reading the self-important and vaguely-cultish textbooks by bayesians makes me want to go out and kill a sufficiently large number of bayesians that i can estimate the mean pitch of their screams

"when we have multiple models, we should choose one using Bayesian statistics"

no

you should do both and publish an appendix showing robustness tests, you cultist

"but my bayesian model takes 4 weeks to process i can't run 1,397 robustness tests"

yes

exactly

"it's #Actually impossible to use predictive accuracy to test model validity because we can't observe future values!!!"

omg

this is a real critically acclaimed textbook im barely even paraphrasing here

i don't trust quantitative methods where people say, "this method has been in use for centuries!"

that is a solid argument for perhaps a theological proposition

it is not highly compelling for code
CULTURE
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
Conservatives love to complain about the media.

But there's an inside baseball media that reveals how destructive the conservative media criticism environment can be to the conservative movement.

Enter, Fox News:

The story is pretty simple.

On election night, Fox News called Arizona very early. This surprised pretty much everyone. The Fox News team had improved their election model in 2020, and was confident their call was correct, even if unconventional.

Controversially, however, they called it for Joe Biden. Arizona has historically been a red state, and the polls (and final result) were close there. Nobody had a really strong expectation it was gonna go for Biden until Fox News just.... called it.

This hurled Trump surrogates into a desperate place. If they lost *Arizona*, that was a bad sign for the night. More importantly, it happened before midnight: it humiliated the President while millions were still watching.

The Trump campaign immediately turned on a dime. They pivoted from "Look, we're crushing it with Hispanics! Massive turnout! Incredible performance!" to "The election was stolen."

Who stole the election changed over time. Fox News. Some rando in Atlanta. Poll workers. China.
POLITICS
Lyman Stone \u77f3\u4f86\u6c11
Lyman Stone 石來民...
@lymanstoneky
the strange reality of strict calvinism is that it makes a mockery of God's claims to hate, abhort, or even be theoretically opposed to evil

the calvinist solution to the problem of evil, which I have *literally heard from the lips of a faithful well-catechized Presbyterian* is, "well, all that happens is God's will, and to do His will is to manifest goodness, and goodness gives God joy, so God must rejoice in evil"

The hypothetical I gave was, "Suppose that there was a city of Christians, and a bomber flew over the city, and the guy at the controls tripped and accidentally armed and dropped a bomb, and wiped out the city: is that God's will? What does God think of that?"

His answer in addition to the above cited the Flood, Soddom, and Nineveh.

Because we all know that God's response to the Flood was, "I REALLY liked that, it was AWESOME, it satisfied my will and purposes to obliterate my creation!"

Once you have drunk the "but muh sovrintee" Kool-Aid you cannot escape the argument that literally everything that happens is not just God's will in some philosophical sense, but His will in the sense of "things that bring him pleasure."
FOR LATER READ

More from Trading

Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Crypto Day-Trading Secret Strategy.

SIMPLE. HIGH PROFIT. NO NONSENSE.

One of the best strategies for Scalping crypto.

Share it to help all beginners.

(A THREAD)🚀🚀


We will use three basic indicators.

1. Pivot Points
2. Stoch RSI
3. VWAP

Note- This strategy will have a MUCH higher probability of success if basic Price action, volume and Candlestick pattern is kept in mind.

USE THE STRATEGY:

I will introduce the tools and then explain the strategy.

I Will talk about the calculations to arrive at the indicators separately.

IMPORTANT- Don't use the indicators alone.
Eg. Stoch RSI has less than 26% hit rate so you can't use it alone to trade.

Tool 1- Pivot Points:

They are reversal points based the historical prices.
Go to the indicators tab and type 'Pivot point standard'

The settings to be used have been disclosed in the pic below.

Note- You can choose your own settings but I have disclosed the ones I use.


This is what they will Look like.

Ignore All notations and just remember.
ALL the lines are Support or Resistance lines
(Lines of Interest)

It doesn't matter if it's been denoted as P,R or S.

We will learn how to use them below, practically.
TRADING
Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
Thread on Short straddle with adjustments:

Short straddle is non-directional strategy

Selling same strike price CALL/PUT option same underlying with same expiry.

Nifty Spot at 14353, So you can sell 14350 CE as well 14350 PE of 14 Jan. Expiry.

(1/n)

*RETWEET for max response

Bullish short straddle: Selling 14400 CE and 14400 PE of same expiry.

Bearish short straddle: Selling 14250 CE and 14250 PE of same expiry.

You can sell straddle as per your market view.

If you are natural view sell CE and PE at ATM strike.

(2/n)

Short straddle has limited profit potential (only premium) and unlimited risk without adjustment.

In Example, Short straddle of 14350, Breakeven is (14131.0-14569.0), need 1.7Lac Margin to sell straddle.
Maximum profit: 16k and Loss: Unlimited, Winning probability: 50%

(3/n)


If market staying near at 14350 then win. Probability increase slowly. Rewards also increase slowly.

Volatility(IV) is also play important role in selling straddle, Like If IV increase so straddle premium increase and IV cool off so premium casually comes down.

(4/n)

Short straddle adjustment:
https://t.co/59Lr64kEtK way to limit the overnight risk.
Convert short straddle in Ironfly, its nothing we have to add long strangle in short straddle it become Ironfly. It gives the good Risk Rewards.

(5/n)
TRADING
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
TradingView isn't just charts

It's much more powerful than you think

9 things TradingView can do, you'll wish you knew yesterday: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Free Multi Timeframe Analysis

Step 1. Download Vivaldi Browser

Step 2. Login to trading view

Step 3. Open bank nifty chart in 4 separate windows

Step 4. Click on the first tab and shift + click by mouse on the last tab.

Step 5. Select "Tile all 4 tabs"


What happens is you get 4 charts joint on one screen.

Refer to the attached picture.

The best part about this is this is absolutely free to do.

Also, do note:

I do not have the paid version of trading view.


2/ Free Multiple Watchlists

Go through this informative thread where @sarosijghosh teaches you how to create multiple free watchlists in the free


3/ Free Segregation into different headers/sectors

You can create multiple sections sector-wise for free.

1. Long tap on any index/stock and click on "Add section above."
2. Secgregate the stocks/indices based on where they belong.

Kinda like how I did in the picture below.
SCREENERS , ALL , TRADINGVIEW
Gurleen
Gurleen
@GurleenKaur_19
A Thread on~ O V E R T R A D I N G

Sitting and observing the numbers flicker on the screen might be very exciting.


But have you ever felt like you might've done better? Or you're just too tired of waiting that you punch an order right in?

That's a Bad Idea.

So, Let's understand the reasons behind it and try to find a way out.

1. Not having a trading plan makes you clueless.
Your impulses start to take control of you.

2. Having a trading plan; But still taking impulsive/ random trades.
Because of adrenaline rush or gambling instinct.

3. Revenge trading
When you try to force a trade in order to recover from a previous loss.
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵 Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:


To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)


1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

• Weekly charts.
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

• The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

• This week my view is that it can take a pause.

• Longer term trend is super bullish.

• Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.


2. Daily:

• Candlestick pattern—Hanging Man

• Chart Pattern—Breakout Failure

• A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

• Here it forms near the top of upmove.

• Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.
TRADING

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Emma Hilton
Emma Hilton
@FondOfBeetles
This is Kuinini ‘Nini’ Manumua, the woman who was ultimately displaced by inclusion of Laurel Hubbard.

She’s 21, and it would have been her first Olympics.
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Brittany Packnett
Brittany Packnett
@MsPackyetti
We should stop confusing what someone was doing when we became aware of them with all they are capable of, interested in, or ever hope to be

Let folks have their many talents, interests and gifts. Life is far more fun with variety, loves.

A lot of folks have come to know me as an activist & I’m grateful that folks care to know me at all.

But I wasn’t born in 2014. I was a whole teacher, executive, policy person, speaker, arts and culture lover, reader, writer, woman of faith, fashion and more before 4 yrs ago 🤷🏾‍♀️

We rightfully complain that marginalized people are not allowed to be fully human.

But we internalize and transfer our oppression daily. It’s a smog. We all breathe it in & act it out.

And then tell WoC “girl ain’t you supposed to be a _______? Why you doing ____?”

Can I live?

And don’t go reading anything personal into this-this isn’t about me necessarily and it’s no subtweet (I try hard not to do that.)

I’ve just been observing that behavior more and more lately. Especially when it comes to marginalized folks.

Evolution should be our aspiration.

“Can’t knock the hustle” should be our anthem.

As long as someone isn’t bringing active and continual harm, why can’t they explore their many sides?
SOCIETY
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Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Tip from the Monkey
Pangolins, September 2019 and PLA are the key to this mystery
Stay Tuned!


1. Yang


2. A jacobin capuchin dangling a flagellin pangolin on a javelin while playing a mandolin and strangling a mannequin on a paladin's palanquin, said Saladin
More to come tomorrow!


3. Yigang Tong
https://t.co/CYtqYorhzH
Archived: https://t.co/ncz5ruwE2W


4. YT Interview
Some bats & pangolins carry viruses related with SARS-CoV-2, found in SE Asia and in Yunnan, & the pangolins carrying SARS-CoV-2 related viruses were smuggled from SE Asia, so there is a possibility that SARS-CoV-2 were coming from
ALL
Greta Musk
Greta Musk
@GretaMusk
🚔 HUGE #Tesla SERVICE PROBLEMS THREAD🚔

You might remember my 3 prior threads on how
TESLA. TREATS. ITS. CUSTOMERS. LIKE. TRASH.

Here's the 4th installment.
@tomkeinan @jonsey_lisa @jwmooc @tchanpoker @bryanthediamond @EconomicManBlog
$TSLA $TSLAQ 1/22


Welcome to Greta's 4th edition of #Tesla customers getting used and abused. Because that's the Elon Musk way.
@coffeebreakls @KocgibiHarun @omaragha @JayGhahari
$TSLA $TSLAQ 2/22


"The best service is no service." - Elon Musk a.k.a. #SpaceKaren
@briansaziz @FarSha998899 @thinktankfour @Billoday1
#Tesla $TSLA $TSLAQ 3/22


These #Tesla customers represent just the very tip of the iceberg. They are ones who have Twitter, have decided to complain about their #TeslaServiceIssues publicly, and were found by yours truly.
@yanismydj @hajelatweets @AlanHeldman @francislongo5 $TSLA $TSLAQ 4/22


Dear #Tesla customers: In California, if your vehicle has been out of service for >30 days total, it's a lemon. You can get punitive damages and attorney's fees. Don't sit around and take Elon's abuse. @13arm13arm @cecimar12 @richardson_skip @shootinglee $TSLA $TSLAQ 5/22
TECH
Brian Cates
Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
A lot of people don't understand that Trump & his incoming team didn't face a normal transition period, like it was over a in a matter of a few weeks or months.

The DOJ transition period JUST ENDED when Sessions left. Almost 2 exact years to get it there.

Pompeo at the CIA took over a year before he was done and ready to shift over to the State Department.

All kinds of stuff has been going on behind the scenes nobody leaks or talks about.

We only had the barest mention of the fact the Clinton Email investigation restarted

Nobody leaked in a year that Huber was deep diving into the Clinton Foundation.
Keep that in mind as all the usual suspects continue to INSIST nothing is happening/going to happen.
POLITICS


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