This year, my trading income crossed ₹3CR in profits.

It took 300 days, no big drawdowns & operated at a 86% win rate percentage in weekly.

Here are the 6 steps for you to do great in trading:

Hope it's helpful to someone.

[🧵 thread]

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

If you use it right, Iron Fly is the most solid risk-defined strategy in trading.

But most people don't know how to adjust the strategy when it goes wrong.

Here are 7 adjustments you can do to lower risk and increase profitability: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

0/ Who is this for?

This will greatly benefit people who freeze when it comes to managing their trades and keep booking losses.

Some trade with too much fear as well when things go wrong.

Knowing these adjustments will give you the confidence to try to manage your trades.

Most of them are to lower risk on the side the market is going in.

Some adjustments even increase the profit potential and probabilities of the trade being in profit on expiry.

Let's begin by having a look at the adjustments.

Here is the adjustment number 1 below.

1/ Don't do anything till your breakeven arrives

One reason these strategies go wrong far too quickly is due to adjusting them too frequently.

You can escape most adjustments if you simply wait for the market to arrive at your breakeven.

This will work well in monthly options.

2/ Remove Risk from Untested Side

If you've taken an iron fly and the market has gone up you can shift your put buy upwards and lock the downside risk to potentially zero.

This way you've secured one side and just need to manage the bleeding side.

Boss is always Boss @Mitesh_Engr

Mitesh Sir's FUTURES BREAKOUT TRADES 101:

• How to pick stocks at right time?
• What to look for?
• Importance of BO post consolidation
• How to manage SL
• How to get huge profits
• Multiple Examples

In collaboration with @niki_poojary

Importance of Trading only BO or BD stocks by @Mitesh_Engr Sir: 👇

•Two questions to always ask:

~Why stock is going up/down and when?
~ Who is behind big up/down and when?

• Trade only stocks with Momentum
• Instant results
• Small SL or huge profits

Sir's take on how to Trade: 👇

• Observe fight between buyer & seller
• Position will be created within first 3 hours
• Operators will win
• Just find BO or BD
• Look for huge volume support
• Give company to operators
• ATP importance explained

How to take trade in Breakout/Breakdown stocks by @Mitesh_Engr Sir: 👇

• Check Support & Resistance
• Wait for 2-3 months consolidation
• Surge in volumes
• Trade on 3 min charts
• Small SL
• Keep trailing
• Always pyramid in profit

When and Why to Pyramid? By @Mitesh_Engr Sir

• Adding to winning positions
• Signals of continued strength
• Potentially large profits
• An Example of pyramiding in one of his trades

Want to become better at Positional Trading?

Read this thread...

12 Rules for Professional Positional Traders:

THREAD: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Rule 1:

"Trade with a stop loss of 2% on your capital for the week."

If you're losing more than 2%, chances are your reading of the market is wrong. The best would be to call it quits for that week.

(1/N)

Rule 2:

" Don't trade in the first 10 mins of any day"

Every day, there is far too much noise in the first few minutes. Positional traders should avoid some time in order to avoid being butchered right away.

(2/N)

Rule 3:

" Wait for candle closings in your timeframe"

Beware of wicks. They are buyer/seller traps. Rather wait for a good candle to close above your support/resistance to open/close a trade.

(3/N)

Rule 4:

" Don't lose more than 10% of your capital in a big gap"

The day I experienced the greatest Mtm loss to my capital was February 24. The figure was -47 lakhs. It was around 10% of my capital. Losing much more would set me back several months.

(4/N)

In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":

1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.

1/n

Nearly everyone starts with a lack of respect for how hard it is to consistently make money trading.

That leads them to pass over high-probability sources of returns in favor of more marginal ideas.

Or they overcomplicate the trading of a good edge.

2/n

Here's an example...

It is 2015. You look at a simple strategy.

You hold an equal dollar exposure to:
- Cap Weighted US Stocks (VTI)
- 20+ Yr US Treasury Bonds (TLT)
- Gold (GLD)

And rebalance each month.

(I've extended back a bit with mutual fund prices.)

3/n

It made money consistently with a few blips.

You'd have 4x your money from 1997 to 2015.

It makes sense. It's harnessing two big sources of risk premia (equity + duration).

It diversifies across 3 macro assets that tend to outperform in different econ environments

4/n

But, naturally, you turn your mind to how you could do better...

And here is where it gets dangerous!

There are good ways to try to "do better", and there are bad ways to try to "do better".

5/n

FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)

1/ I used to think that the biggest gains had to come from stocks that no one knew about

One of the harder lessons for me to internalize has been that oftentimes, unknown stocks stay unknown for a reason and you can still earn attractive returns from stocks everyone's bullish on

2/ While I’m not contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian, I do think it’s important to question everything.

When I started out, I would buy "quality" stocks like FB or TSLA without doing much research.

But an opinion being consensus doesn’t make it the truth.

3/ So owning the most popular stocks made me nervous. If a winner is so obvious then either it's priced in or maybe I'm missing something?

I preferred owning stocks that others weren’t aware of or were bearish on for the wrong reasons (more room for upside surprises).

4/ But there are degrees

Despite being widely popular, stocks like SHOP have been some of the best performers because they exceeded even the most bullish projections

And some stocks like TSLA are partly popular because they are great consumer products which is an important sign

5/ On the other hand, while the biggest winners can be found in micro-caps, many of which started out very undervalued with no analyst coverage, on average, they tend to underperform larger caps

Picking out the big winners earlier on is very difficult and there is no set formula

A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %

gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%