BC TRADING
Saved by @jacobhtml

1/ How to review quarterly earnings šŸ§µ

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

ā¬‡ļø

 2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on trackā“

Other question:

ā“Is revenue growing?
ā“Are margins stable/expanding?
ā“Profits?
ā“Balance sheet?
ā“New opportunities?
ā“New threats?
3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript
4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
6/ Tab 4 - Find a transcript of the earnings call

@themotleyfool transcripts are best

Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news

Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not

Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
7/ In most recent earnings, I check the headline numbers:

Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)āœ…

non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91

EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)āœ…
8/ Results vs. guidance

Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020

Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)āœ…

Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)āœ…

Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)āœ…
9/ Balance Sheet

$2.71 billion cash

$1.67 billion long-term convertible notes
10/

Margins

Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself

Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)

Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)

non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
11/

News from press release?

āœ…Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)

āœ…Reimbursement in France
12/

Read through transcript:

āœ…Gross margin ā¬†ļø from new manufacturing facility

āœ…Super bowl commerical

āœ…New service center in Lithuania

āœ…New manufacturing site in Malaysia

āœ…New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021

āœ…Enter VC space
13/ Transcript

āœ…50% of sales now coming through pharmacy

āœ…International sales 35% of revenue

āœ…International DTC campaign launching
14/

2021 Guidance:

Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth

Wall Street expects 21%

Margins:
Gross ā¬‡ļø to 65%
Operating ā¬‡ļø 13%
15/

Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
16/

My big takeaways:

āœ…Revenue growing
āœ…Gross margin expanding
āœ…International expansion
āœ…Reinvestment year causing bottom-line to look worse
šŸ›‘2021 Margins will be weak
āœ…Move to pharmacy working
āœ…G7 launching in 2021
āœ…VC fund adds optionality

THESIS ON TRACK
17/

If you own $DXCM, the best move is to continue to do nothing
18/

Best guess is that $DXCM is in the top of the 5th inning of its growth cycle
19/ I email financial graphics like these every day for free

Interested?

https://t.co/SjeNPpNAHN

More from Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ Mission Statements šŸ§µ

I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff

False words that companies created for HR reasons

I've slowly changed my mind about them

They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever

EVER!

Need convincing? ā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļø

2/ What is a mission statement?

At its core, a mission statement should answer this question:

*****Why does the company exist?*****

A profound question that is easy to overlook!

3/ When used properly

Mission Statements should guide ALL of the actions of the organization

It's like a company's North Star

If an activity doesnā€™t advance the mission,

it should be discarded!

If an activity does advance the mission,

it should be adopted!

4/ A Mission and a Vision statement are different

Mission: WHY the company exists

Vision: What the company/world looks like if the company is successful

Both important, but they are NOT interchangeable

5/ The reason I used to think mission statements didn't matter

is because the vast majority of companies/CEOs

don't believe they matter!

Most companies SUCK at creating & communicating them!

Why should employees/shareholders care about a mission

if the company/CEO doesn't?
FINANCE
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
I own 7 stocks that are 15+ baggers (and counting)

Here are 10 traits they all have in common:

The data:

Stock / # of bags / purchase year:

$AMZN / 15+ / 2010
$FB / 15+ / 2012
$GOOG / 15+ / 2009
$MELI / 15+ / 2011
$CMG / 20+ / 2012
$NFLX / 60+ / 2010
$TSLA / 60+ / 2012

1: Founder-led

$AMZN - Bezos
$CMG - Ells
$FB- Zuck
$GOOG - Page
$MELI- Galperin
$NFLX - Hastings
$TSLA - Musk

Founders tend to be:
+Detail oriented
+Innovative
+Mission driven
+Think long-term
+Have skin/soul in the game

Look for founders!

2: Consumer-facing

All of these companies attract millions/billions of consumers

This eliminates customer concentration risk and enables long-term brand building

3: High sales growth

All of these companies were growing revenue 20%+ BEFORE I bought them

Sales growth is the engine that drives profit growth

Profit growth is the engine that drives stock appreciation

Find companies that can grow sales 20%+ for decades
BUSINESS
Advertisement
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Panic selling once can destroy years of good investment decisions in an instant

but keeping your head on straight when your portfolio is tanking is hard

Here are 13 investing tips/tricks/principles that I use to keep calm when my portfolio is in free fall:

1/ Know what you own and why you own it

You can borrow stock ideas from other investors, but you canā€™t borrow conviction

You must understand the bull AND bear case upfront, otherwise you wonā€™t have the conviction to hold when the price is going down

Research builds conviction

Conviction enables patience

Patience builds wealth

If a 20% drop shakes your confidence in a business, you didnā€™t do enough research

2/ Know what drives long-term stock returns

In the short-term, emotions & computer algorithms determine stock prices

In the long-term, profit growth determine stock prices

This is a core investing principle that you must fully embrace

Look at these long-term charts of $MSFT, $HD, and $AAPL

Net income growth & stock price growth are closely linked in the long-term

Thatā€™s not a coincidence ā€” profit growth IS WHAT DRIVES long-term value creation
LONGTERMINVESTINGPSYCHOLOGY
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ My most popular tweets of 2020 by month (thread)

January:

A reminder of @morganhousel cash strategy.

For every $1,000 in cash:

More: ā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļøā¬‡ļø


2/ February

If you've truly found the next $AMZN, $AAPL, or $NFLX and can hold for years, it's nearly impossible to overpay.

But finding them is hard.

3/ March

Millennials have seen tech crash, 2008, and now #COVID19

I'm worried that many of them will swear off the stock market -- the greatest wealth-building device ever -- for life.

4/ April

Want to see the checklists used by

Buffet
Dalio
Fischer
Graham
Greenblatt
Klarman
Marks
Munger

and

5/ May

When the P/E ratio is:

Useless (Stage 1, 4) - $MDB, $SHOP, $PINS, $GME, $JCP

Semi-useful (Stage 2) - $TTD, $NFLX

Useful! (Stage 3) - $MSFT, $AAPL, $V

In determining valuation
FINANCE
Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
The šŸ”Ÿ Most Important Money Lessons

I Wish I Could Teach My Younger Self šŸ§µ

1āƒ£ ALWAYS live below your means


2āƒ£Developing a long-term mindset

is the foundation of financial success


3āƒ£In the beginning, your savings rate is all that matters

Eventually, your investing returns are all that matters

Focus your time accordingly


4āƒ£Financial freedom is achievable

The price is ~10 years of hardcore saving/investing
LIFE

More from Trading

Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
FREE MINI STOCK MBA
If you wish to learn abt trading,psychology,options,business etc
You can go through this thread.
Other than this I do post videos on my YT channel : -Abhishek Kar & Tradiostation
-Intraday views on FREE telegram : Abhishek Kar Official
RT will be appreciated

1. Threads to learn Options
https://t.co/wabkek43I8

2. https://t.co/OIDenHKdWN

3. Some core rules to investing
https://t.co/37d1pygp7P

4.Summing up 2020 Trading lessons
https://t.co/jSUb1lSGbQ

5.Effects of margin change on


6. Exciting story about a trader who destroyed a Bank
https://t.co/CsEEhIsD3q

7. Some Thought Provoking facts about stock markets
https://t.co/IjxpX5Wx24

8. A dose on Trading and investing


9. Top 5 resources to learn everything about stocks
https://t.co/6KnIySBGIG

10. Some Pro Tips on Trading
https://t.co/EiSGikt7jv

11. Wisdom on stuffs you should not do
https://t.co/bI2dH0XTSS

12. Reasons why you are losing the


13. The DARK side of stock market
https://t.co/qsteGcbquI

14. Stocks where you should NOT invest
https://t.co/2tD5q0K3UQ

15. Lessons from MILLIONAIRE trader
https://t.co/Pec6LmUtGa

16. Lessons from my
TRADING
SPACVet
SPACVet
@SpacVet
My number 1 stock pick for 2021 is: Pine Island Acquisition Corp.

$PIPP

Let me break down why I think this will be THE SPAC of 2021. šŸ‘‡

TL:DR ā€“ the management team is loaded with President Bidenā€™s closest friends and advisors. No other SPAC has this level of access.

$PIPP company overview:

-focused on defense, government service & aerospace
-perfect focus when you consider who is on their Management Team


$PIPP Management

-here's where it gets EXCITING
-founded by John Thain (ex Merrill Lynch CEO and Uber director)
-then STACKED with veteran Government and Administration key figures


$PIPP Insane Management Connections

-the list of PIPP "DC Partners" includes:

-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of State (Tony Blinken)
-- President Biden's pick for Secretary of Defense (Gen. Lloyd Austin).


$PIPP - The Joe Biden Connection

- Tony Blinken and President Biden are close allies.
- Blinken has been an advisor to Biden for decades
- Blinken set to be appointed Sec. of State
TRADING , CATEGORY
Advertisement
Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
š“š”š«šžššš šŸšØš« šŽš©š­š¢šØš§š¬
The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :

-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
-Set up your trades with greater than 50% Probability Of Profit
- Use implied volatility in your decision making process
-Book some trades at 50% of max profit i.e. locking of profit incase u are buyer

-Donā€™t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
-Diversify your portfolio across product, direction, and time,this has to be considered while you are planning to put in multiple strikes in folio

-Short Strangles are one of our go-to strategies because of their high probability of profit and increased profit potential.A little effort with understanding of volatility would help
-Allocate no more than 5% of your account to any one trade

-Trade small, trade often to increase your number of occurrences. Some might deny but this works
-In options you might have heard of spreads.Multiple options legs create an options spread. For example, a short strangle consists of selling a call and selling a put simultaneously.
TRADING
Mohit Sharma
Mohit Sharma
@mohitsharmadl
Traders often overlook the SHORT STRADDLE due to its simplicity.

It remains the TOP strategy to make money when the market is not trending.

Here's how you can make money using only the short straddle
in various market conditions

ā¬‡ļø A comprehensive threadšŸ§µ


A short straddle is the most basic neutral options strategy.

Where a call option and a put option are sold at the same strike price.

Max profit = Total premium received ( call leg + put leg )

Max risk = Unlimited

(using SLs would be wise)

Upper breakeven = Strike price + Total Premium received

Lower breakeven = Strike price - Total Premium received


Essentially short straddles are initiated when the trader is confident about the market staying in a certain range (between the breakevens of the straddle)

Long-term short straddles usually require fewer adjustments since the range is wide.

Since unlimited loss is a component of the strategy, the trader has to adjust the strategy to increase profit/ mitigating risk
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

šŸ§µ Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 8th December Expiry:


To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:

1. Aggressive Traders (2.6%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.3%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.8%)


1. Technicals

Let's start by doing some basic technical analysis.

We'll look at:

ā€¢ Weekly charts.
ā€¢ Daily charts.
ā€¢ Hourly / 60 min charts.
ā€¢ 15 min charts.

1. Weekly-

ā€¢ The market has given 4 continuous green closes, so not expecting a big momentum on upside.

ā€¢ This week my view is that it can take a pause.

ā€¢ Longer term trend is super bullish.

ā€¢ Any dip will towards 41800 will be a retest, and should be used to go long.


2. Daily:

ā€¢ Candlestick patternā€”Hanging Man

ā€¢ Chart Patternā€”Breakout Failure

ā€¢ A pin bar candle is very powerful but only after a downmove.

ā€¢ Here it forms near the top of upmove.

ā€¢ Means some sellers are present. Below 43000 can sell calls above 43600 for the week.
TRADING

You May Also Like

Kieran Snyder
Kieran Snyder
@KieranSnyder
1 There's a chasm between an NLP technology that works well in the research lab and something that works for applications that real people use. This was eye-opening when I started my career, and every time I talk to an NLP engineer at @textio, it continues to strike me even now.

2 Research conditions are theoretical and/or idealized. A huge problem for so-called NLP or AI startups with highly credentialed academic founders is that they bring limited knowledge of what it takes to build real products outside the lab.

3 A product is ultimately a thing that people pay for - not just cool technology or user experience. But Iā€™m not even talking about knowledge gaps in go-to-market work. I'm talking purely technical gaps: how you go from science project to performant + delightful user experience.

4 Most commoditized NLP packages solve well-understood problems in standard ways that sacrifice either precision or performance. In a research lab, this is not usually a hard trade-off; in general, no one is using what you make, so performance is less important than precision.

5 In software, when youā€™re making something for real people to use, these tradeoffs are a big deal. Especially if youā€™re asking those people to pay for what youā€™ve made (canā€™t get away from that pesky GTM thinking). They expect quality, which includes precision AND performance.
MACHINE LEARNING
Laurie Voss
Laurie Voss
@seldo
The 2018 State of JavaScript survey is out. They got 20,000 responses and have some delicious, delicious data. I'mma thread in some highlights:

First up: JavaScript flavors. There's TypeScript at 47% adoption, a tad higher than npm's own survey results (which said 46%). npm's survey is coming up again soon and will ask about TypeScript in a lot more detail.


I really, *really* like SoJ's "would not use again" question, which lets people who've abandoned a tech self-identify. This is noticeable in the graph above with Flow users -- 41% of people who've used Flow say they wouldn't use it again.

Now JavaScript frameworks. It's been a full year since npm's survey, so these numbers differ from ours in the directions I expected:
React 65% (vs. 60%)
Vue 29% (vs. 24%)
Ember 5% (vs 4%, I was expecting a bigger rise)

But there's a shocker in here: Angular.


npm's survey had Angular at 40% last year and SoJ has it at either:
- 58% (if you include those who don't want to use it again)
- 24% (if you count only those who like it)
Since npm's question didn't ask if they intend to *continue* using it I think that might explain this.
TECH
Advertisement
Professor
Professor
@DillikiBiili
So friends here is the thread on the recommended pathway for new entrants in the stock market.

Here I will share what I believe are essentials for anybody who is interested in stock markets and the resources to learn them, its from my experience and by no means exhaustive..

First the very basic : The Dow theory, Everybody must have basic understanding of it and must learn to observe High Highs, Higher Lows, Lower Highs and Lowers lows on charts and their

Even those who are more inclined towards fundamental side can also benefit from Dow theory, as it can hint start & end of Bull/Bear runs thereby indication entry and exits.


Next basic is Wyckoff's Theory. It tells how accumulation and distribution happens with regularity and how the market actually

Dow theory is old but
SCREENERS , ALL , MARKETESSENTIALS
Andrey \uf8ff Azimov
Andrey ļ£æ Azimov
@AndreyAzimov
The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:
STARTUPS
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
RISHI BHRINGI AND ARDHA-NAREESHWAR SHIVA

Rishi Bhringi was a devoted bhakt of Mahadev. However, in his devotion to Shiva, he ignored Mata Parvati.

Once, he visited Kailasha along with other Rishis. All the Rishis did parikrama of Shiva and Parvati both except Rishi Bhringi.


The same situation continued whenever Rishi Bhringi visited Kailasha. Mata Parvati decided to teach him that Shiva and Parvati are one and inseparable.
So on one such visit, Mata Parvati sat on the left lap of Mahadev when Rishi Bhringi came.


Seeing this, Rishi Bhringi took the form of a bee(some say bird) and did pradakshina/ parikrama only around Shivaā€™s head and ignored Ma Parvati.
Angered Mata took away the Shakti from his body. Rishi lost his blood and flesh and was left with a bare skeletal form.


Seeing him in such a situation where he was unable to support himself, Shiva granted a third leg to him.
Shiva then fused one half of his body with that of Ma Parvati and appeared as Ardha Nareeshwar.
Rishi Bhringi finally realised that Shiv and Shakti are one and the same.
šŸ™šŸ»
ALL


Category Partner: Enkryptopedia