1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?
3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript
4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
6/ Tab 4 - Find a transcript of the earnings call

@themotleyfool transcripts are best

Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news

Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not

Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
7/ In most recent earnings, I check the headline numbers:

Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)✅

non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91

EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)✅
8/ Results vs. guidance

Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020

Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)✅

Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)✅

Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)✅
9/ Balance Sheet

$2.71 billion cash

$1.67 billion long-term convertible notes
10/

Margins

Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself

Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)

Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)

non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
11/

News from press release?

✅Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)

✅Reimbursement in France
12/

Read through transcript:

✅Gross margin ⬆️ from new manufacturing facility

✅Super bowl commerical

✅New service center in Lithuania

✅New manufacturing site in Malaysia

✅New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021

✅Enter VC space
13/ Transcript

✅50% of sales now coming through pharmacy

✅International sales 35% of revenue

✅International DTC campaign launching
14/

2021 Guidance:

Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth

Wall Street expects 21%

Margins:
Gross ⬇️ to 65%
Operating ⬇️ 13%
15/

Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
16/

My big takeaways:

✅Revenue growing
✅Gross margin expanding
✅International expansion
✅Reinvestment year causing bottom-line to look worse
🛑2021 Margins will be weak
✅Move to pharmacy working
✅G7 launching in 2021
✅VC fund adds optionality

THESIS ON TRACK
17/

If you own $DXCM, the best move is to continue to do nothing
18/

Best guess is that $DXCM is in the top of the 5th inning of its growth cycle
19/ I email financial graphics like these every day for free

Interested?

https://t.co/SjeNPpNAHN

More from Brian Feroldi

Last week, I asked my followers to share their favorite Twitter threads

I receive tons of wonderful replies and read through them all

Here are 31 amazing threads that are well worth your time ⬇️

1/ @10kdiver on


2/ @aaronbush100 on 20 semi-controversial investing


3/ @annieduke on category


4/ @awilkinson on losing

More from Trading

You May Also Like

Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel was previously CEO of bioMerieux in France from 07-10.

Alain Merieux, who owns bioMerieux, was instrumental in the creation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology P4 Lab.

The same people who helped create the virus, also helped to create the vaccines...


Moderna partnered with French Pasteur Institute in 2015 to develop mRNA vaccine technology.

Pasteur Institute partnered with the Wuhan P4 Laboratory in 2017 along with the Merieux Foundation to study emerging viruses...
https://t.co/yFsHwrNYaK
https://t.co/9M5lydBKhM


Nobel prize winning scientist Luc Montagnier asserts that Sars-Cov-2 is man-made and originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Montagnier did extensive work with the Pasteur Institute in France which was partnered with the Wuhan P4.

Merieux Foundation & the Chinese government have worked together since 1965, and partnered to study emerging pathogens in Africa in 2015.

Their research included "PATHOGENS CARRIED BY BATS" that provoke respiratory diseases.

🚨🚨🚨
https://t.co/gVwpT0ssqI