Other question:
❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?
1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵
A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example
⬇️
Other question:
❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?
Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter
Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)
Tab 3 - Analyst estimates
Tab 4 - Call Transcript
I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"
I click on "press release"
Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter
It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance
The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates
The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
@themotleyfool transcripts are best
Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news
Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not
Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)✅
non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91
EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)✅
Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020
Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)✅
Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)✅
Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)✅
Margins
Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself
Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)
Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)
non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
News from press release?
✅Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)
✅Reimbursement in France
Read through transcript:
✅Gross margin ⬆️ from new manufacturing facility
✅Super bowl commerical
✅New service center in Lithuania
✅New manufacturing site in Malaysia
✅New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021
✅Enter VC space
✅50% of sales now coming through pharmacy
✅International sales 35% of revenue
✅International DTC campaign launching
2021 Guidance:
Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth
Wall Street expects 21%
Margins:
Gross ⬇️ to 65%
Operating ⬇️ 13%
Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
More from Brian Feroldi
1/ I'm a huge fan of checklists
I use them every day to help me find great investments
Want to create your own investment checklist?
Here are some great resources to help you get started
⬇️
2/ Here's my free public spreadsheet that details my current
3/ Here's my detailed board post about how to use the
4/ Here's a detailed thread on Michael Shern's EXCELLENT investment
5/ Here's a thread on how I created my
I use them every day to help me find great investments
Want to create your own investment checklist?
Here are some great resources to help you get started
⬇️
2/ Here's my free public spreadsheet that details my current
3/ Here's my detailed board post about how to use the
4/ Here's a detailed thread on Michael Shern's EXCELLENT investment
Just finishing reading "The Investment Checklist" by Michael Shearn.
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) July 4, 2020
It's EXCELLENT.
I HIGHLY recommend it!
(Puts my checklist to shame.)
Here's the book's checklist:
\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447
5/ Here's a thread on how I created my
1/ How to create an investment checklist (thread)
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) December 8, 2020
Checklists are an amazing, FREE, underutilized investing tool
Here's the step-by-step process for how to create your own
\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f\u2b07\ufe0f
More from Trading
𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆-𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
🧵 A Thread 🧵
𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
🔸 Less Volatility
🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
🔸 Indicator Link
🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !
🔸 https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
🧵 A Thread 🧵
𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
🔸 Less Volatility
🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
🔸 Indicator Link
🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !
🔸 https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
12 TRADING SETUPS used by professional traders:🧵
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
Here's what you'll learn in this thread:
1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy
Let's dive in ↓
1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):
The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.
Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.
Sell directional credit spreads with capped
@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data
Don't trade till 9:45 Am.
Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.
Check combined premium and put a stop on individual
@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)
This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.
To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high
or Below yesterday's day's
Collaborated with @niki_poojary
Here's what you'll learn in this thread:
1. Capture Overnight Theta Decay
2. Trading Opening Range Breakouts
3. Reversal Trading Setups
4. Selling strangles and straddles in Bank Nifty
6. NR4 + IB
7. NR 21-Vwap Strategy
Let's dive in ↓
1/ STBT option Selling (Positional Setup):
The setup uses price action to sell options for overnight theta decay.
Check Bank Nifty at 3:15 everyday.
Sell directional credit spreads with capped
A thread about STBT options selling,
— Jig's Patel (@jigspatel1988) July 17, 2021
The purpose is simple to capture overnight theta decay,
Generally, ppl sell ATM straddle with hedge or sell naked options,
But I am using Today\u2019s price action for selling options in STBT,
(1/n)
@jigspatel1988 2/ Selling Strangles in Bank Nifty based on Open Interest Data
Don't trade till 9:45 Am.
Identify the highest OI on puts and calls.
Check combined premium and put a stop on individual
Thread on
— Jig's Patel (@jigspatel1988) July 4, 2021
"Intraday Banknifty Strangle based on OI data"
(System already shared, today just share few examples)
(1/n)
@jigspatel1988 3/ Open Drive (Intraday)
This is an opening range breakout setup with a few conditions.
To be used when the market opens above yesterday's day high
or Below yesterday's day's
#OpenDrive#intradaySetup
— Pathik (@Pathik_Trader) April 16, 2019
Sharing one high probability trending setup for intraday.
Few conditions needs to be met
1. Opening should be above/below previous day high/low for buy/sell setup.
2. Open=low (for buy)
Open=high (for sell)
(1/n)
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So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
