BC TRADING
Saved by @jacobhtml

1/ How to review quarterly earnings 🧵

A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example

⬇️

 2/ The BIG question: Is the thesis on track❓

Other question:

❓Is revenue growing?
❓Are margins stable/expanding?
❓Profits?
❓Balance sheet?
❓New opportunities?
❓New threats?
3/ I open 4 browser tabs

Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter

Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)

Tab 3 - Analyst estimates

Tab 4 - Call Transcript
4/ Tabs 1 & 2 - Find the current & previous earnings report

I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"

I click on "press release"

Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter

It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
5/ Tab 3 - Find the quarterly analyst estimates

Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance

The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates

The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
6/ Tab 4 - Find a transcript of the earnings call

@themotleyfool transcripts are best

Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news

Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not

Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
7/ In most recent earnings, I check the headline numbers:

Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)✅

non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91

EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)✅
8/ Results vs. guidance

Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020

Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)✅

Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)✅

Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)✅
9/ Balance Sheet

$2.71 billion cash

$1.67 billion long-term convertible notes
10/

Margins

Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself

Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)

Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)

non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
11/

News from press release?

✅Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)

✅Reimbursement in France
12/

Read through transcript:

✅Gross margin ⬆️ from new manufacturing facility

✅Super bowl commerical

✅New service center in Lithuania

✅New manufacturing site in Malaysia

✅New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021

✅Enter VC space
13/ Transcript

✅50% of sales now coming through pharmacy

✅International sales 35% of revenue

✅International DTC campaign launching
14/

2021 Guidance:

Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth

Wall Street expects 21%

Margins:
Gross ⬇️ to 65%
Operating ⬇️ 13%
15/

Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
16/

My big takeaways:

✅Revenue growing
✅Gross margin expanding
✅International expansion
✅Reinvestment year causing bottom-line to look worse
🛑2021 Margins will be weak
✅Move to pharmacy working
✅G7 launching in 2021
✅VC fund adds optionality

THESIS ON TRACK
17/

If you own $DXCM, the best move is to continue to do nothing
18/

Best guess is that $DXCM is in the top of the 5th inning of its growth cycle
19/ I email financial graphics like these every day for free

Interested?

https://t.co/SjeNPpNAHN

More from Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
My investing style: Buy and hold high-quality businesses

Here are 15 traits that tell me I've found a great business ⬇️

1/ Recurring Revenue

Types:

Business Services $MCO
Contracts $AMT
Consumables $MNST
Exchange $MKTX
Franchise $WINA
Membership $TDOC
Platform $ETSY
Razor/blade $DXCM
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Subscription $NFLX
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Great companies sell products/services that are in-demand in good times and bad

That allows them to grow regardless of what is happening in the broader economy


3/ Organic Growth

"Organic" growth: Growing by increasing sales of internally developed products/services

"Inorganic" growth: Growing from mergers & acquisitions

Organic Growth > Inorganic Growth


4/ High & Expanding Gross Margin

Indicates that the company’s products/services create a huge amount of value for the customer

Rising gross margin also indicates pricing power
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Brian Feroldi
Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
1/ My Mission: To Spread Financial Wellness (thread)

Here’s what "financial wellness" means to me

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ Mindset

Humans are programmed to think short-term

Evolutionary, thinking short-term makes sense. It helps with survival.

Financial wellness is all about training yourself to develop a long-term mindset

Not easy -- it takes practice


3/ Mindset

If you join the right tribes, you can’t help but improve

My favs:
@AffordAnything
@ChooseFiFI
FinTwit
@MicroCapClub
@themotleyfoolFool
@visualizevalue

Twitter / Podcasts / Blogs / YouTube -- when used correctly -- are amazing


4/ Mindset

Educate yourself - constantly!

Especially about:

1⃣Money
2⃣Relationships
3⃣Health

These 3 categories have an outsized influence on all areas of your life

Books


5/ Career

In the beginning, focus on growing your income

Do more than what is expected

Become a lynchpin

Find a career that you ENJOY (<- important!) that also has high-income potential

Start a side hustle (<- important!)

Build your talent
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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
I own 7 stocks that are 15+ baggers (and counting)

Here are 10 traits they all have in common:

The data:

Stock / # of bags / purchase year:

$AMZN / 15+ / 2010
$FB / 15+ / 2012
$GOOG / 15+ / 2009
$MELI / 15+ / 2011
$CMG / 20+ / 2012
$NFLX / 60+ / 2010
$TSLA / 60+ / 2012

1: Founder-led

$AMZN - Bezos
$CMG - Ells
$FB- Zuck
$GOOG - Page
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$NFLX - Hastings
$TSLA - Musk

Founders tend to be:
+Detail oriented
+Innovative
+Mission driven
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Look for founders!

2: Consumer-facing

All of these companies attract millions/billions of consumers

This eliminates customer concentration risk and enables long-term brand building

3: High sales growth

All of these companies were growing revenue 20%+ BEFORE I bought them

Sales growth is the engine that drives profit growth

Profit growth is the engine that drives stock appreciation

Find companies that can grow sales 20%+ for decades
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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
Panic selling once can destroy years of good investment decisions in an instant

but keeping your head on straight when your portfolio is tanking is hard

Here are 13 investing tips/tricks/principles that I use to keep calm when my portfolio is in free fall:

1/ Know what you own and why you own it

You can borrow stock ideas from other investors, but you can’t borrow conviction

You must understand the bull AND bear case upfront, otherwise you won’t have the conviction to hold when the price is going down

Research builds conviction

Conviction enables patience

Patience builds wealth

If a 20% drop shakes your confidence in a business, you didn’t do enough research

2/ Know what drives long-term stock returns

In the short-term, emotions & computer algorithms determine stock prices

In the long-term, profit growth determine stock prices

This is a core investing principle that you must fully embrace

Look at these long-term charts of $MSFT, $HD, and $AAPL

Net income growth & stock price growth are closely linked in the long-term

That’s not a coincidence — profit growth IS WHAT DRIVES long-term value creation
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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi
I asked, “What company is worth less than $10 billion today but you think could be worth $500+ billion in a few decades?”

I received 710 answers

Here are 20 top stocks that have 50x+ potential:

1: Alteryx - $AYX

Market cap: $5.1 billion

What it does: Big data analytics

2: Boston Omaha - $BOMN

Market Cap: $900 million

What it does: Berkshire Hathaway 2.0

3: Beyond Meat - $BYND

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What it does: Plant-based meat

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Market Cap: $2.3 billion

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@Abhishekkar_
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You can go through this thread.
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Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
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1. Core setup
2. Pivot points trades
3. PDH/PDL trades
4. Open interest addictions combined with rejections on charts.
5. Website to confirm bias

Very quick read.

Share if you liked for the benefit of everyone.

•Main setup of @ITRADE191
He used this setup daily for all trades.

1. EMA crossover 10/20
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3. Vwap
4. RSI >


•Volume always greater than


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@SarangSood
FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

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Indrazith Shantharaj
@indraziths
Price + Open Interest (OI) + Volume = Deadly Combo

There are many tools for Open Interest. Options Decoder from @TrueData2 is one of the simple yet powerful tools on options and OI.

Below are the 10 Powerful Features of Options Decoder

Thread 🧵🧵

(1/N)


#1 - PE CE Difference

This feature combines the OI of call options and put options and plots against each other.

At one glance, we can know what big players are doing!

(If they are selling more CE means, they are bearish on the underlying instrument)

(2/N)


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This feature displays all the F&O stocks in one place.

In one click, we can see the stocks in any order (like an increase in price, increase in OI, or decrease in volume, etc).

A highly useful feature for options traders!

(3/N)


#3 - Open High

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If many CE strikes show "Open Low", then the market is bullish!

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#4 - IV Price-OI Chart

This feature plots CE and PE vs. Open Interest (OI) for the ATM strike price.

Always Remember:

CE Long Build Up + PE Short Build Up = BULLISH

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Mohit Sharma
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@mohitsharmadl
Traders often overlook the SHORT STRADDLE due to its simplicity.

It remains the TOP strategy to make money when the market is not trending.

Here's how you can make money using only the short straddle
in various market conditions

⬇️ A comprehensive thread🧵


A short straddle is the most basic neutral options strategy.

Where a call option and a put option are sold at the same strike price.

Max profit = Total premium received ( call leg + put leg )

Max risk = Unlimited

(using SLs would be wise)

Upper breakeven = Strike price + Total Premium received

Lower breakeven = Strike price - Total Premium received


Essentially short straddles are initiated when the trader is confident about the market staying in a certain range (between the breakevens of the straddle)

Long-term short straddles usually require fewer adjustments since the range is wide.

Since unlimited loss is a component of the strategy, the trader has to adjust the strategy to increase profit/ mitigating risk
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ACHARYA SUSHRUTA and SUSHRUTA SAMHITA

Ancient Indians were pioneers in diverse fields of study and their genius was centuries ahead of their times. Feel the glory, basking in pride of their unparalleled achievements.

(Thread)


Sushruta (circa 7th or 6th century BC) was a surgeon who in present times is known as the “father of Indian medicine” and “father of plastic surgery” for inventing and developing surgical procedures. He lived in Kashi on the banks of river Ganga.(1)

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Lessor known facts of Sudarshan Chakra or Neela Chakra of Puri Jagannath Temple.

The metal wheel at the top of Bhagwan Jagannath temple is also known as Neela Chakra (Blue Wheel). The wheel is made of eight metals comprising of.. 1/n


iron, copper, zinc, mercury, lead, brass, silver & gold. It's circumferance is about 36 feet & it is so designed that there is a wheel within the wheel. The circumferance of the inner wheel is about 26 feet. Eight hubs join together the inner and the outer wheels. 2/n


There are decorative designs on the outer wheel. The thickness of the Neela Chakra is 2 inches.The wheel is said to be Bhagwan Vishnu's most powerful weapon, Sudarshana Chakra. Inside Jagannath temple, Lord Vishnu's wheel is also worshipped in the name of 'Sudarshana'. 3/n


But inside the temple Sudarshana is not in the shape of a wheel, but in the shape of a small wood pillar placed to the left of image of bhagwan Jagannath. It is believed that the same Sudarshana is also at the top of the temple and is known by the name of Neela Chakra. 4/n


There is a specific category of people among the temple sevaks to serve the Neela Chakra and they are known as Garuda Sevaka or Chunara Nejoga. The pilgrims hold these sevaks in high esteem because everyday at Sunset. 5/n
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kārthik கார்த்திக் कार...
@almightykarthik
Hello Dear Tweeples!

It’s Siddhars time of the week! Last week I shared story of Guru (Machamuni or Yogi Matsyendranath), this week I bring you information on his Shishya.

#Thread on Gorakanathar Siddhar.

@LostTemple7


His origin story is interesting, though I couldn’t verify it’s authenticity, so not sharing the story here. He’s shishya of Machamuni Siddhar and also learnt from Agasthiya Siddhar.

@HelloNNewman @RajiIndustani @Kishoreciyer1

Unlike other Siddhars, he is depicted as either with a Tiger or seated & wearing Tiger skin. While I couldn’t find any explanation for this. My interpretation is as follows:

Tiger is a predator that lurks around and attacks unexpectedly.


Our 5 indriyas and 5 vikitis also similar to Tiger, they lurk around and attacks our thoughts when we’re least expecting. Gorakkar is said to have mastered these aspects, thus to denote this, he shown with Tiger.

@Itishree001 @VarierSangitha @jananisampath

Gorakanathar or Gorakshnath (as he’s known in the Nath Sampraday) is celebrated Guru in both Northern and Southern part of India. He’s one of the NavNath in Nath Sampraday and also 18 Siddhars of Tamil tradition. During his life, he’s travelled Indian subcontinent extensively +
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PETER PADUKAM - THE LEGEND OF MADURAI MEENAKSHI TEMPLE AND A BRITISH COLLECTOR.

A British Collector named Rous Peter was appointed as Collector of Madurai from 1812 to 1828.

Though a Christian by faith, he respected all faiths including Hinduism and also honored local practice


Collector Peter was the temple administrator of the Meenakshi Amman Temple and conducted all his duties with sincerity and honesty and respected the religious sentiments of all people.

Collector Rous Peter respected and treated people of all faiths equally and this noble trait

earned him the popular nickname ‘Peter Pandian'

Goddess Meenakshi Amman Temple was situated between Collector Peter's residence and office.

Everyday he used to go to the office by his horse and while crossing the temple, he got down from his horse, removed the hat and his shoes

and crossed the whole path on his foot.

Through this small gesture he expressed his reverence to the Goddess!

One day there was a heavy downpour in Madurai city and River Vaigai was in spate.

Collector was sleeping in his residence and was suddenly disturbed and woken up by

the sound of anklets and he left his bed to find out from where the sound had came.

He saw a small girl wearing pattuvastrams (silk garments) and precious ornaments and addressing him as 'Peter come this way'.
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#3/thread on Angkor wat

Christianity and islam may be the largest religion of today’s world but Sanatan dharm has the largest religious monument in the world in the form of Angkor wat. It is situated in combodia and spread across over 400 acres / 1.6 km².


It was listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1992, which encouraged an international effort to save the complex.
It was originally built as a Hindu temple dedicated to the god Vishnu. In Khmer, the Cambodian language, Angkor means "city" and Wat means "temple grounds".


So Angkor Wat means "Temple City". Its original name was Vrah Vishnuloka or Parama Vishnuloka, meaning the sacred dwelling of Vishnu in Sanskrit.
But, it gradually turned into a Buddhist temple towards the end of the 12th century & is still used for worship today.


Angkor Wat was initially designed and constructed in the first half of the 12th century, during the reign of Suryavarman II, as the king’s state temple and capital city. It was built without the aid of any machinery, as there was no machinery available at that time.


Evidence for these dates comes in part from inscriptions, which are vague, but also from the architectural design and artistic style of the temple and its associated sculptures.

Another aspect is that the five central towers of Angkor Wat symbolize the peaks of Mount Meru,
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