1/ Know what you own and why you own it
You can borrow stock ideas from other investors, but you can’t borrow conviction
You must understand the bull AND bear case upfront, otherwise you won’t have the conviction to hold when the price is going down
Research builds conviction
Conviction enables patience
Patience builds wealth
If a 20% drop shakes your confidence in a business, you didn’t do enough research
2/ Know what drives long-term stock returns
In the short-term, emotions & computer algorithms determine stock prices
In the long-term, profit growth determine stock prices
This is a core investing principle that you must fully embrace
Look at these long-term charts of $MSFT, $HD, and $AAPL
Net income growth & stock price growth are closely linked in the long-term
That’s not a coincidence — profit growth IS WHAT DRIVES long-term value creation
3/ Buy in stages
It’s tempting to want to go “all-in” when you find an exciting new stock idea
But, what if you are wrong about the business or management?
Or, what if you are right about the business but wrong about the valuation?
Force yourself to scale into a stock over time
My personal process is to buy in 0.5% increments and add over months/years as my conviction builds
If I’m right, a little is all I need to do great
If I’m wrong, I won’t be hurt much
4/ Study market history
Every great stock — WITHOUT EXCEPTION! — will get killed at some point
This isn’t a bug — it’s how investing works
You must embrace the fact that volatility is NORMAL
Consider $AMZN’s history:
It has declined:
10% - 30 times
20% - 14 times
30% - 8 times
40% - 5 times
50% - 4 times
90% - 1 time
Returns since IPO: 164,400%
5/ Increase trading friction
Trading is tempting when it’s on your phone & easy to do
My broker is Interactive Brokers
It’s a PAIN to log in
It's a PAIN to place a trade
I love the friction -- I have to really want it to trade
6/ Keep some cash on the sidelines
Cash is a drag on returns during bull markets
Cash is the raw material of superior returns in bear markets
Create a cash deployment strategy and follow it!
Or, steal from
@morganhousel
7/ Avoid margin & options
Handling the emotional swings of common stock ownership is hard
Those swings get much, much wilder when you use margin and/or options
Compounding interest is all the leverage you need!
8/ Connect with other long-term investors
Never invest alone!
A good community is worth its weight in gold
Ask: Does your social media feed make you calmer or stressed out?
If it is stressed out, upgrade your feed!
9/ Keep your personal finances conservative
Markets are volatile during economic downturns
Economic downturns are also when your job is most at risk
That’s A LOT to deal with if you have debt & 1 source of income
Eliminate debt, build cash, & create new sources of income
10/ Force yourself to journal BEFORE you transact
I keep a simple investing journal
Before I buy/sell, I have to write down WHY
It slows me down, but forces me to think things through
11) Make your investment decisions on the weekend
The weekday is full of distractions
Eliminate that factor by making all your important financial decisions on the weekend
12) Stop watching the news
Voluntarily watching the news is like inviting Debbie Downer into your home and asking her to talk non-stop
If the news is really that important, it will find you!
13/ Zoom out
Whenever I feel bad about my near-term returns, I zoom out and look at my long-term returns
It always makes me feel better
Stocks are the best asset class over the long-term
But the price of that returns is:
1⃣Perpetual Short-term Volatility
2⃣Perpetual Uncertainty
PAY IT!
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Summary:
1: Know what you own
2: Know what drives returns
3: Buy in stages
4: Study history
5: Increase trading friction
6: Cash!
7: Avoid margin & options
8: Community!
9: Personal finances
10: Journal
11: Make decisions on the weekend
12: Stop watching the news
13: Zoom out