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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi 5 years, 10 months ago 1582 views

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1/ My most popular tweets of 2020 by month (thread)

January:

A reminder of @morganhousel cash strategy.

For every $1,000 in cash:

More: ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ February

If you've truly found the next $AMZN, $AAPL, or $NFLX and can hold for years, it's nearly impossible to overpay.

But finding them is hard.

3/ March

Millennials have seen tech crash, 2008, and now #COVID19

I'm worried that many of them will swear off the stock market -- the greatest wealth-building device ever -- for life.

4/ April

Want to see the checklists used by

Buffet
Dalio
Fischer
Graham
Greenblatt
Klarman
Marks
Munger

and more?

https://t.co/lrR1Fwe2WE

5/ May

When the P/E ratio is:

Useless (Stage 1, 4) - $MDB, $SHOP, $PINS, $GME, $JCP

Semi-useful (Stage 2) - $TTD, $NFLX

Useful! (Stage 3) - $MSFT, $AAPL, $V

In determining valuation

6/ June

Thread on the presentation that I give at my kid's stock about the stock market

https://t.co/Qf1SQxjEQ3

This school year, I lectured at my kid's school

I taught 2nd - 5th grade about investing/money

11 classes/250 kids.

My goal was to maximize ENGAGEMENT, so I made it as FUN as possible@themotleyfool has taught me that headlines matter, hence title :)

Details below: \U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447 pic.twitter.com/BYktP1NDUm
— Brian Feroldi (@BrianFeroldi) June 13, 2020

7/ July

Amazing slide from @socialcapital on how $AMZN gradually turned all of its major costs into sources of revenue

This is beyond brilliant

8/ August

Warren Buffett is worth $90 billion

$89.7 billion of that was generated after he turned 50

9/ September

Characteristics of stocks with 10x potential:

1) Market cap <$5 billion
2) Building a moat that could be wide eventually
3) Huge TAM
4) Recurring revenue
5) Stable/expanding margins
6) Great management team

10/ October

Invest in:

Your skills
Your home
Your family
Real Estate
Your health
Your network
Your community
The stock market
Your relationships
Your balance sheet

11/ November

I updated my "Do I Invest?" framework to include $SNOW, $LMND, $FSLY, $ADSK, $ETSY, $ZS, $NNOX

12/ December

Personal finance should be a mandatory curriculum in middle school and high school

More from Brian Feroldi

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

What are the first metrics that you look at when evaluating a new stock?

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

I asked, “What are the first metrics that you look at when evaluating a new stock?”

I received 322 replies

Here are 10 great metrics to look at first (and how to find them):

1/ Market Capitalization

Why: Shows the current size/scale of the business

Where: @YahooFinance (image), @theTIKR , @KoyfinCharts ...etc

2/ Sales Growth Rate

Why: Shows the business model works & current growth rate

Where: @stockcardhq (image), SEC filings, @theTIKR...etc

3/ Free Cash Flow

Why: Is business generating cash or burning cash?

Where: @YahooFinance (image), SEC Filings, @stockrow1...etc

4/ Returns on capital (ROE, ROIC, ROA)

Why: Shows capital efficiency of business

Where: @stockrow1 (image) , @ycharts , @YahooFinance...etc

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Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

My inflation strategy:

Own businesses with recession-proof demand and pricing power

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

Panic selling once can destroy years of good investment decisions in an instant

but keeping your head on straight when your portfolio is tanking is hard

Here are 13 investing tips/tricks/principles that I use to keep calm when my portfolio is in free fall:

1/ Know what you own and why you own it

You can borrow stock ideas from other investors, but you can’t borrow conviction

You must understand the bull AND bear case upfront, otherwise you won’t have the conviction to hold when the price is going down

Research builds conviction

Conviction enables patience

Patience builds wealth

If a 20% drop shakes your confidence in a business, you didn’t do enough research

2/ Know what drives long-term stock returns

In the short-term, emotions & computer algorithms determine stock prices

In the long-term, profit growth determine stock prices

This is a core investing principle that you must fully embrace

Look at these long-term charts of $MSFT, $HD, and $AAPL

Net income growth & stock price growth are closely linked in the long-term

That’s not a coincidence — profit growth IS WHAT DRIVES long-term value creation

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

Accounting is the language of business.

If you buy stocks, you MUST learn how to read a Cash Flow Statement.

Here’s everything you need to know:

The cash flow statement shows how cash moves in and out of a company over a period of time.

The most common time periods are:
▪️1 Quarter
▪️1 Year
▪️Year-to-date (usually 6 or 9 months)

The time period is at the top. Here's $NFLX recent cash flow statement time period.

Some companies show the cash flow statement in their earnings press release, but many don’t.

You can find the cash flow statement by looking at:
▪️10-Q (Quarterly Report)
▪️10-K (Annual Report)
▪️Fnancial aggregators such as @theTIKR,
@CMLviz, @themotleyfool, @YahooFinance

There are three main segments to a cash flow statement.

1. Operating Activities
2. Investing Activities
3. Financing Activities

Companies get some leeway with how they breakout each segment, but they all follow this basic structure.

Let’s start with Operating Activities.

This segment STARTS with net income (the bottom number of the Income Statement).

It shows cash movements from all normal operational business activities.

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Niranjan Avasthi
@avasthiniranjan

A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

1/15

The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

2/15

As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

3/15

From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

4/15

Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

5/15

Shuchi Nahar
@shuchi_nahar

To understand Financial Shenanigans & detect accounting manipulations from Annual Reports with checklist
In detail and lucid terms

Financial Shenanigans
(Part-1)
https://t.co/wa6HSElug0

(Part-2)
https://t.co/Vrva17GvgP

(Part-3)
https://t.co/XuziOCDHL2

@dmuthuk @ms89_meet

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Christian Reshoeft
@reshoftc

(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

The Cantillon Effect is the most important economic concept you’ve never heard of.

Here's a breakdown of what it is (and why you should care):

1/ Richard Cantillon was an Irish-French economist and philosopher born in the 1680s.

He achieved success as a banker—which he attributed to the formidable connections made through his family and employer.

At a young age, he had learned of the impact of proximity to power...

2/ Around 1730, Cantillon wrote a paper—Essay on the Nature of Commerce in General—which is considered a foundational work in the study of the political economy.

It was widely circulated in manuscript form, though it was not published until 1755, well after his death.

3/ In the paper, Cantillon posited that the early recipients of new money entering an economy will benefit more significantly than those it trickles down to.

In other words, the "flow path" of the new money matters!

4/ In 18th century terms, those closest to the King—the source of money/power—benefitted first when new money entered the economy.

Broadly, Cantillon observed that new money creates distributional effects based on where it enters the system.

The Cantillon Effect was born...

Brian Feroldi
@BrianFeroldi

My investing style: Buy and hold high-quality businesses

Here are 15 traits that tell me I've found a great business ⬇️

1/ Recurring Revenue

Types:

Business Services $MCO
Contracts $AMT
Consumables $MNST
Exchange $MKTX
Franchise $WINA
Membership $TDOC
Platform $ETSY
Razor/blade $DXCM
Real Estate $STOR
SaaS, PaaS, IaaS $TWLO, $NOW, $FSLY
Subscription $NFLX
Tollbooth $BIP

2/ Recession-Proof Demand

Great companies sell products/services that are in-demand in good times and bad

That allows them to grow regardless of what is happening in the broader economy

3/ Organic Growth

"Organic" growth: Growing by increasing sales of internally developed products/services

"Inorganic" growth: Growing from mergers & acquisitions

Organic Growth > Inorganic Growth

4/ High & Expanding Gross Margin

Indicates that the company’s products/services create a huge amount of value for the customer

Rising gross margin also indicates pricing power

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The '60s at 60
@the_60s_at_60

"The MAD Primer of Bigots, Extremists and Other Loose Ends," from September 1969.

Seen a couple of these panels make the rounds from time to time, so here's the complete set of 10 (something to amuse and/or offend almost everyone).

Chapter 1: The Super Patriot

Chapter 2: The Ku Klux Klansman

Chapter 3: The American Student

Chapter 4: The Right-Wing Extremist

The New York Times
@nytimes

Stan Lee’s fictional superheroes lived in the real New York. Here’s where they lived, and why. https://t.co/oV1IGGN8R6

Stan Lee, who died Monday at 95, was born in Manhattan and graduated from DeWitt Clinton High School in the Bronx. His pulp-fiction heroes have come to define much of popular culture in the early 21st century.

Tying Marvel’s stable of pulp-fiction heroes to a real place — New York — served a counterbalance to the sometimes gravity-challenged action and the improbability of the stories. That was just what Stan Lee wanted. https://t.co/rDosqzpP8i

The New York universe hooked readers. And the artists drew what they were familiar with, which made the Marvel universe authentic-looking, down to the water towers atop many of the buildings. https://t.co/rDosqzpP8i

The Avengers Mansion was a Beaux-Arts palace. Fans know it as 890 Fifth Avenue. The Frick Collection, which now occupies the place, uses the address of the front door: 1 East 70th Street.

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Chuck Wendig
@ChuckWendig

TRUMP: "I've decided to eat babies."

PEOPLE: "He can't eat babies, that's super illegal."

TRUMP, on TV, eating babies, not even cooking them first: "People are saying that I really am the best baby-eater, folks."

NYT: "Trump Vs. Babies: The Rhetoric On Both Sides Must Stop"

Jeff Flake tweets: "It is a sad day in America when this callous man can eat babies live on TV"

Jeff Flake, 10 seconds later, votes to help him install a series of 4,000 new judges that are very, very pro-babyphagia.

Judge Kavanaugh, found drunk in a Capitol Hill closet: "I LIKE BEER. OKAY? I LIKE BEER AND I LIKE BABIES AND THAT'S NOT SO WRONG. THAT'S RIGHT. I LIKE BABIES DIPPED IN BEER. I JUST DIP EM. IN THE BEER. THE BABIES. THE BABIES I EAT. OKAY? THAT'S AMERICA."

Mike Pence, wringing his hands about the baby-eating: "We must take care of our children. Our youngest must be protected on this troubling day."

Mike Pence then invites a Baby Chef to say a prayer.

Twitter Users: "It's a distraction technique! Trump eating babies is trying to DISTRACT YOU from ALL THE OTHER HORRORS, which are themselves distractions from the BABY-EATING. It's DISTRACTIONS ALL THE WAY DOWN."

Trump: *eats tons of babies at a rally*

*literal tons of babies*

WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan

LESSER KNOWN DETAILS ABOUT THE BATTLE OF PRATAPGAD - THIS YOU ALL SHOULD READ

In the 1659 Adilshah sent Afzalkhan with the army of 75000 soldiers to destroy Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj with his empire. He was the main soldier, warrior and minister in Adilshahi Sultanate.

He was the Subhedar of Wai province.

He was very powerful physically. His height was 7.3 ft. due to same he was very popular as a strong man from Adilshahi Sultanate.

Whole India was not daring to fight with Adilshahi due to Afzal Khan.

Badi Begum Sahiba sent him to kill Chhatrapati Shivaji on any cost.

Voluntary he decided to destroy Chhatrapati Shivaji’s empire with him. He started his operation against Chhatrapati Shivaji from "wai". He destroyed many temples like as Tulja Bhavani Temple.

He destroyed so many villages, killed villagers to torture Chhatrapati Shivaji.

DETAILED VIEW- Running commentary

1. Chhatrapati Shivaji chose Pantaji as a lawyer to communicate with Afzal Khan. Pantaji was very sharp minded, who did his job very nicely.

2. He presented Chhatrapati Shivaji is fearing Afzal Khan and he wanted to invite him in his kingdom near Pratapgad.

3. Pantaji succeed in the communication with Afzal Khan and he brought him as per the planning of Chhatrapati Shivaji.

dan spaceman
@ohlaika

I'm gonna do my other star wars thread tomorrow, which will primarily be me yelling at a @RowanKaiser-shaped strawman for calling the First Order and The Resistance "cosplayers who the rest of the galaxy has to deal with"

the deal w/the New Republic, the First Order, and the Resistance is very weird and complex and I actually take issue with how Story Group frames the actual conflict.

pre-TFA stuff is presented as a "cold war" between the New Republic and the remnants of the Empire that form the First Order, which 100% makes sense.

But they frame the First Order's attack on the Hosnian system and the subsequent battle that takes place across TFA and TLJ as a full on war when it's very clearly a coup. A war implies at least equal standing, but the First Order completely wrecks shop and takes over the galaxy.

ok never mind I'm fucking doing this now.

The First Order fleet we see in TLJ is *not* the entire fleet of the First Order (I don't even think Starkiller Base was their main base of operations honestly, it couldn't have been considering they were operating out of Wild Space)