1/ My most popular tweets of 2020 by month (thread)

January:

A reminder of @morganhousel cash strategy.

For every $1,000 in cash:

More: ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

I have an MBA in finance

But I’ve learned 10x more about investing from listening to podcasts than I did in school

Here are 24 podcasts that I regularly listen to that will make you a better investor⬇️

1/ Acquired -- @AcquiredFM

This podcast "tells the stories of great companies"

Ben Gilbert & David Rosenthal do a great job of talking through acquisitions & have a stellar list of guests

2/ Animal Spirits

@awealthofcs & @michaelbatnick break down financial news, share insights that they are thinking about, and recommend TV shows & movies

3/ The Business Brew

@BillBrewsterSCG does long-form, in-depth, discussions about capital allocation and the psychology of investing/business

4/ Capital Allocators

@tseides has an amazing series of guests that discuss all facets of investing

His recent book -- Capital Allocators -- takes all of the top learners from his interviews and condenses them into a book

Accounting is the language of business.

If you buy stocks, you MUST learn how to read a balance sheet.

Here’s everything you need to know:

The balance sheet is one of the 3 major financial statements.

It shows company’s:

▪️Assets: What it owns
▪️Liabilities: What it owes
▪️Shareholders Equity: It's net worth attributable to its owners

At a fixed point in time

That “at a point in time” part is key!

A balance sheet is a SNAPSHOT of a company’s net worth.

It is usually measured at the end of a quarter/year.

That’s different from an income statement or cash flow statement, both of which are measured over periods of time

All balance sheets follow the same formula:

Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders Equity

This formula must be in balance at all times

(Hence the term “balance sheet”)

Side Note:

This formula can be easily re-arranged into the “net worth” formula that you are already familiar with

Assets - Liabilities = Shareholders Equity (Net worth)

My investing style: Buy and hold high-quality businesses

Here are 15 traits that tell me I've found a great business ⬇️

1/ Recurring Revenue

Types:

Business Services $MCO
Contracts $AMT
Consumables $MNST
Exchange $MKTX
Franchise $WINA
Membership $TDOC
Platform $ETSY
Razor/blade $DXCM
Real Estate $STOR
SaaS, PaaS, IaaS $TWLO, $NOW, $FSLY
Subscription $NFLX
Tollbooth $BIP

2/ Recession-Proof Demand

Great companies sell products/services that are in-demand in good times and bad

That allows them to grow regardless of what is happening in the broader economy

3/ Organic Growth

"Organic" growth: Growing by increasing sales of internally developed products/services

"Inorganic" growth: Growing from mergers & acquisitions

Organic Growth > Inorganic Growth

4/ High & Expanding Gross Margin

Indicates that the company’s products/services create a huge amount of value for the customer

Rising gross margin also indicates pricing power

My 🔟 Biggest Investing Mistakes 🧵

1⃣Only looking at the share price

I bought penny stocks at the start

My logic: 100 shares of $1 stock > 1 share of $100 stock

WRONG!

The price of 1 share is meaningless!

What matters is how great the company is!

2⃣Only looking at dividend yield

I bought stocks with 10%+ yields

My logic: 10% yield > 1% yield

WRONG!

The dividend got cut and the share price dropped -- a double-whammy!

A high yield is Wall Street's way of saying "this yield is not sustainable, watch out"

3⃣Selling a great stock early

I bought $DXCM in 2007 for ~$6

I sold it 1 month later after a 15% gain

Current price: $412.58

I was in a rush to take profits, so I missed out on HUGE upside

If the opportunity is huge, hold!

4⃣Not buying a great stock due to valuation

I've made this mistake over and over again

I didn't buy $ZM at $80 because the valuation was "insane"

Current price: $455

If you like everything about the company except the valuation, but some

Even if it's just a little bit

How to analyze a:

▪️Balance Sheet
▪️Income Statement
▪️Cash Flow Statement

In less than 5 minutes:

Every company has 3 financial statements.

Each answers a unique question:

1. Balance Sheet: What’s your net worth?

2. Income Statement: Are you profitable?

3. Cash Flow Statement: Are you generating cash?

The financial statements are interrelated.

Each views a company’s financials from a different angle.

When combined, they provide a more complete view of a company’s true financial position.

1A: Balance Sheet

This tells you a company’s net worth at a specific point in time.

Layout:

1B: What I focus on first:

1⃣ Cash & Equivalents: How much?
2⃣ Debt: How much vs. cash?
3⃣ Goodwill: How much?
4⃣ Retained Earnings (+ T.S.): Positive?
5⃣ Receivables & Inventory: How much?

It's been more than 60 years since Philip Fisher wrote the investment classic in "Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits".

The book is famous for the 15 questions which one must ask before investing in any company.

THREAD

These are the questions which help us in determining the "quality" of a business.

Warren Buffett has time and again said that he is 85% Graham and 15% Fisher.

Let's have a look at these 15 questions.

P.S.: Stocks listed in this thread are not to be taken as recos.

1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

The important point which you must note here is that you must not just look at the size of the company.

You must also look at the opportunity size of the market in which the company exists.

Let's take the case of HDFC Bank. Although it is a huge bank, but it controls just 9% of the total credit market in India, suggesting an enormous opportunity for it to capture.

2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?

1/ A lot of people ask me how Bleacher Report found our first writers when we were tiny and had no funding.

So here's a thread on all the things we tried, what worked best, and lessons on growing a community from scratch:

2/ When we first started B/R, all the articles were written by my co-founders, our friends, and me.

This led to some hilariously bad takes. Like this article where I panned the SF Giants for drafting future World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner.

3/ When we were ready to start building our community, we started with word of mouth. We drafted an email pitching our concept. It went out to everyone we knew, asking them to share it with anyone who would be interested.

This got us maybe a few dozen signups.

From the email:

4/ With only a handful of members, we needed to make the community feel more active.

So we faked it til we made it.

Our team created multiple accounts and posted using different fake names. This created the sense of more activity and encouraged new members to join in.

5/ Later, I learned that the founders of Reddit did the same thing early on.

Sometimes the solution to the "chicken and the egg" problem of building community is to create the illusion of more chickens (or

Terry Smith is often referred to as "the English Warren Buffett".

He runs Fundsmith which has a fund size of £27.9bn.

Despite the size, Fundsmith did a CAGR of 18.4%.

In his book Investing for Growth, he explains his investing philosophy.

Here's a breakdown:

1. Fundsmith's winning formula

Find companies that focus on delivering value.

Not those who are looking to pacify Wall Street with short-term results.

2. Avoiding "cheap" companies?

Low multiples are not a reason to buy a company.

A ship will continue to sink if it has a hole in it.

"A stock may have a low valuation but an even lower intrinsic value. Buying such a stock is not a recipe for investment success."

3. Getting quality right

For long-term investors, getting the quality of the business is more important than the valuation.

“An investor could have paid 281 times earnings for L’Oréal, 156 times for Colgate, and 147 times for Brown-Forman and still beat the market.”

4. "Unprofitable" companies could be good investments

Many of the best companies don't show earnings today.

But that's because they're heavily reinvesting for the future.

It's just that the earnings hasn't show up.

A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12

It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/

For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/

The major one-off base effect will come from oil prices that decreased abysmally in March 2020 and have recovered. Some estimates put US inflation in April reaching 4%! After vaccinations, later in the year, pent-up consumer demand will also increase prices.4/

Despite the increased spending of accumulated savings, the savings rate will remain higher than before Covid for precautionary reasons (Fig 1). No permanent spending spree will materialise. Wages will remain subdued for a while (Fig2). Higher but not high inflation is coming.5/

One reason the Left hates Rush so much is that he was so effective at skewering their pretensions to moral and intellectual superiority. He made it okay to laugh at them, to judge the failure of their policies without ritually celebrating their alleged good intentions.