Other question:
āIs revenue growing?
āAre margins stable/expanding?
āProfits?
āBalance sheet?
āNew opportunities?
āNew threats?
1/ How to review quarterly earnings š§µ
A step by step guide using $DXCM as an example
ā¬ļø
Other question:
āIs revenue growing?
āAre margins stable/expanding?
āProfits?
āBalance sheet?
āNew opportunities?
āNew threats?
Tab 1 - Current company earnings report / shareholder letter
Tab 2 - Previous company earnings report / shareholder letter (check guidance)
Tab 3 - Analyst estimates
Tab 4 - Call Transcript
I search "Dexcom Investor Relations"
I click on "press release"
Open the newest quarterly earnings report and last quarter
It can also be a shareholder letter/presentation
Open up $DXCM in yahoo finance
The "news" section usually has a link to reports on whether the company beat/met estimates
The "analysis" tab is a good source, but sometimes it updates to the next quarter too quickly
@themotleyfool transcripts are best
Sometimes links are on Yahoo Finance news
Search "Fool DXCM Transcript" if not
Seekingalpha / NASDAQ are two other free sources
Revenue growth: 23% to $569 million
Revenue vs. Wall Street expectations (beat by 1.88%)ā
non-gaap EPS growth: -21% to $0.91
EPS vs. Wall Street expectations (meet expectation)ā
Management issued yearly guidance for 2020 in Q3 2020
Revenue +29% to $1.9 billion (actual +31% to $1.93 billion)ā
Non-GAAP Gross margin 66% (actual 66.7%)ā
Non-GAAP Operating margin 16% (actual 16.5%)ā
Margins
Use transcript / press release / or calculate yourself
Gross 70.2% vs. 66.8% (gross profit grew faster than revenue)
Non-gaap Operating: 18.3% vs. 22.5% (investigate!)
non-gaap Net: 15.8% vs. 22.9% (investigate!)
News from press release?
ā Building out salesforce (explains operating margin & net margin drop)
ā Reimbursement in France
Read through transcript:
ā Gross margin ā¬ļø from new manufacturing facility
ā Super bowl commerical
ā New service center in Lithuania
ā New manufacturing site in Malaysia
ā New sensor launching in 2nd half 2021
ā Enter VC space
ā 50% of sales now coming through pharmacy
ā International sales 35% of revenue
ā International DTC campaign launching
2021 Guidance:
Revenue:
Management expects 15% to 20% growth
Wall Street expects 21%
Margins:
Gross ā¬ļø to 65%
Operating ā¬ļø 13%
Management has a long history of under-promising & over-delivering, so I view these numbers as the floor, not the ceiling
More from Brian Feroldi
More from Trading
Thread on Short straddle with adjustments:
Short straddle is non-directional strategy
Selling same strike price CALL/PUT option same underlying with same expiry.
Nifty Spot at 14353, So you can sell 14350 CE as well 14350 PE of 14 Jan. Expiry.
(1/n)
*RETWEET for max response
Bullish short straddle: Selling 14400 CE and 14400 PE of same expiry.
Bearish short straddle: Selling 14250 CE and 14250 PE of same expiry.
You can sell straddle as per your market view.
If you are natural view sell CE and PE at ATM strike.
(2/n)
Short straddle has limited profit potential (only premium) and unlimited risk without adjustment.
In Example, Short straddle of 14350, Breakeven is (14131.0-14569.0), need 1.7Lac Margin to sell straddle.
Maximum profit: 16k and Loss: Unlimited, Winning probability: 50%
(3/n)
If market staying near at 14350 then win. Probability increase slowly. Rewards also increase slowly.
Volatility(IV) is also play important role in selling straddle, Like If IV increase so straddle premium increase and IV cool off so premium casually comes down.
(4/n)
Short straddle adjustment:
https://t.co/59Lr64kEtK way to limit the overnight risk.
Convert short straddle in Ironfly, its nothing we have to add long strangle in short straddle it become Ironfly. It gives the good Risk Rewards.
(5/n)
Short straddle is non-directional strategy
Selling same strike price CALL/PUT option same underlying with same expiry.
Nifty Spot at 14353, So you can sell 14350 CE as well 14350 PE of 14 Jan. Expiry.
(1/n)
*RETWEET for max response
Bullish short straddle: Selling 14400 CE and 14400 PE of same expiry.
Bearish short straddle: Selling 14250 CE and 14250 PE of same expiry.
You can sell straddle as per your market view.
If you are natural view sell CE and PE at ATM strike.
(2/n)
Short straddle has limited profit potential (only premium) and unlimited risk without adjustment.
In Example, Short straddle of 14350, Breakeven is (14131.0-14569.0), need 1.7Lac Margin to sell straddle.
Maximum profit: 16k and Loss: Unlimited, Winning probability: 50%
(3/n)
If market staying near at 14350 then win. Probability increase slowly. Rewards also increase slowly.
Volatility(IV) is also play important role in selling straddle, Like If IV increase so straddle premium increase and IV cool off so premium casually comes down.
(4/n)
Short straddle adjustment:
https://t.co/59Lr64kEtK way to limit the overnight risk.
Convert short straddle in Ironfly, its nothing we have to add long strangle in short straddle it become Ironfly. It gives the good Risk Rewards.
(5/n)
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1/ š Excited to share what weāve been building at https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t + we are going to tweetstorm our progress every week!
Week 1 highlights: getting shortlisted for YC W2019š¤, acquiring a premium domainš°, meeting Substack's @hamishmckenzie and Stripe CEO @patrickc š¤©
2/ So what is Brew?
brew / bru : / to make (beer, coffee etc.) / verb: begin to develop š±
A place for you to enjoy premium content while supporting your favorite creators. Sort of like a āConsumer-facing Patreonā cc @jackconte
(weāre still working on the pitch)
3/ So, why be so transparent? Two words: launch strategy.
jk š a) I loooove doing something consistently for a long period of time b) limited downside and infinite upside (feedback, accountability, reach).
cc @altimor, @pmarca
4/ https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t domain š»
It started with a cold email. Guess what? He was using BuyMeACoffee on his blog, and was excited to hear about what we're building next. Within 2w, we signed the deal at @Escrowcom's SF office. Youāre a pleasure to work with @MichaelCyger!
5/ @ycombinator's invite for the in-person interview arrived that evening. Quite a day!
Thanks @patio11 for the thoughtful feedback on our YC application, and @gabhubert for your directions on positioning the product ā set the tone for our pitch!
Week 1 highlights: getting shortlisted for YC W2019š¤, acquiring a premium domainš°, meeting Substack's @hamishmckenzie and Stripe CEO @patrickc š¤©
2/ So what is Brew?
brew / bru : / to make (beer, coffee etc.) / verb: begin to develop š±
A place for you to enjoy premium content while supporting your favorite creators. Sort of like a āConsumer-facing Patreonā cc @jackconte
(weāre still working on the pitch)
3/ So, why be so transparent? Two words: launch strategy.
jk š a) I loooove doing something consistently for a long period of time b) limited downside and infinite upside (feedback, accountability, reach).
cc @altimor, @pmarca
4/ https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t domain š»
It started with a cold email. Guess what? He was using BuyMeACoffee on his blog, and was excited to hear about what we're building next. Within 2w, we signed the deal at @Escrowcom's SF office. Youāre a pleasure to work with @MichaelCyger!
5/ @ycombinator's invite for the in-person interview arrived that evening. Quite a day!
Thanks @patio11 for the thoughtful feedback on our YC application, and @gabhubert for your directions on positioning the product ā set the tone for our pitch!
MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.
Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.
ā¢ Positional Strangles
ā¢ Intraday Strangles
ā¢ Position Sizing
ā¢ How to do Adjustments
ā¢ Plenty of Examples
ā¢ When to avoid
ā¢ Exit Criteria
How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr
ā¢ When to sell
ā¢ How to do Adjustments
ā¢ Exit
Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in
1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr
ā¢ Sold Strangles 20% cap used
ā¢ Added 20% cap more when in profit
ā¢ Booked profitable leg and rolled up
ā¢ Kept rolling up profitable leg
ā¢ Booked loss in calls
ā¢ Sold only
2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.
ā¢ Identified a reversal and sold puts
ā¢ Puts decayed a lot
ā¢ When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.
ā¢ Positional Strangles
ā¢ Intraday Strangles
ā¢ Position Sizing
ā¢ How to do Adjustments
ā¢ Plenty of Examples
ā¢ When to avoid
ā¢ Exit Criteria
How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr
ā¢ When to sell
ā¢ How to do Adjustments
ā¢ Exit
1. Let's start option selling learning.
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) February 10, 2019
Strangle selling. ( I am doing mostly in weekly Bank Nifty)
When to sell? When VIX is below 15
Assume spot is at 27500
Sell 27100 PE & 27900 CE
say premium for both 50-50
If bank nifty will move in narrow range u will get profit from both.
Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in
Few are selling 20-25 Rs positional option selling course.
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) November 3, 2019
Nothing big deal in that.
For selling weekly option just identify last week low and high.
Now from that low and high keep 1-1.5% distance from strike.
And sell option on both side.
1/n
1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr
ā¢ Sold Strangles 20% cap used
ā¢ Added 20% cap more when in profit
ā¢ Booked profitable leg and rolled up
ā¢ Kept rolling up profitable leg
ā¢ Booked loss in calls
ā¢ Sold only
Sold 29200 put and 30500 call
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) April 12, 2019
Used 20% capital@44 each
2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.
ā¢ Identified a reversal and sold puts
ā¢ Puts decayed a lot
ā¢ When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
Already giving more than 2% return in a week. Now I will prefer to sell 32500 call at 74 to make it strangle in equal ratio.
— Mitesh Patel (@Mitesh_Engr) February 7, 2020
To all. This is free learning for you. How to play option to make consistent return.
Stay tuned and learn it here free of cost. https://t.co/7J7LC86oW0
