BC POLITICS
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

So, deal or no-deal? I'm afraid it looks gloomy. Too many outstanding issues, a political context that is not conducive to compromise, and a tunnel leaking like mad. Quite possibly forming between them a vicious cycle. So, is this it? I suspect not... 1/n

 Recall, this UK-EU negotiation is attempting to put in place an agreement unusually extensive (haulage, aviation, security, as well as trade) in a record timescale (9 months start to implementation) at a time of pandemic. That was always optimistic. 2/
A process driven EU against a naive yet overconfident UK in a short timeframe was also never going to be easy. In particular the UK's sole evident negotiating strategy, to say we'll walk away, is still in overdrive, making compromise harder. 3/
On the up side the UK has been inching slowly away from the purist notions of sovereignty which would prevent any deal towards a more realistic haggle over details, but possibly too late to resolve them, barring unexpected deep late concessions from either side. 4/
Geography isn't changing, and trading more with neighbours isn't either. Virtually all countries in the world have deals with their neighbours. It is unrealistic for the UK to be the sole developed country exception. Even if it takes a while. 5/
Right now the politics is 'blame the French' on one side and 'don't trust the Brits' on the other. As I said, not conducive to deep compromises. The only real chance is to agree you don't trust each other, but would trust each other less without a deal. Which isn't great. 6/
But apart from petulance, why walk away? The EU don't, ever. However improbable a deal appears (hello India!). Why should the UK do so? As we've just seen, we need to talk with neighbours. And you can be not scared of no-deal and still prefer a deal. 7/
Time, as Brexit threadmeister @pmdfoster often says, for cool heads. A lot has been agreed. But negotiating teams are now tired and probably pretty grouchy. Member states, MEPs, MPs, all concerned about what might be agreed. No time to implement properly anyway. 8/
Yes, deal if we can today. But if we can't, far better for the two sides to take a pause, get ready for January 1, and come back with some renewed energy (and knowledge of why we need a deal). Yes it will be messy. But it will be anyway. Trying to be civil will really help. 9/
Throughout these talks we hoped for some kind of outside intervention to overcome fundamental differences. It hasn't happened and is probably still needed (hello Biden?). But the two sides have come through a lot. If they can't complete, at least don't throw it away. 10/10

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Delusional. And no way to run a country. Far higher barriers to trade with the EU from Friday. And still subject to EU influence on our laws. To deny this is also to deny the ability to tackle the problems we will face.

We ended up with particularly high level playing field conditions in the EU deal because the UK didn't take the subject seriously. We got a worse deal on fish than anyone thought possible, and got nothing in return. All because of cakeism. Or patriotism as they call it.

Now we face higher trade barriers to our nearest market, which means our businesses need to be even more competitive to overcome them and succeed. Is that acknowledged?

Our neighbours, the EU, use all manner of pressures to keep neighbours in line in terms of trade. That financial services equivalence, pity if you didn't get that. Data equivalence, have 6 months free if you don't change your laws while we make you sweat...

Northern Ireland, as we repeat endlessly, Johnson cakeism of no checks? Somehow no longer mentioned after the EU got what they wanted. See also, fish, level playing field. EU priorities, EU won. Johnson cake, all gone, not eaten.
GOVERNMENT
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Just bringing together my various bits and pieces on the UK-EU. The first reactions - a significant agreement...

Winners and losers of the UK-EU deal.

Why this was always going to be a problem - regulatory soverignty v free trade involves trade offs...

Going back to mid-2019, why the deal the UK wanted from the EU, the same benefits with none of the costs, couldn't be available.

More recently, why the Brexit dream is dying - because it wasn't designed to deal with a situation where we had to choose between trade with the EU and freedom.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has gone from being an irritating statement trotted out on a training course to a description of the UK government's modus operandi. And as well as on covid restrictions we're seeing it in EU negotiations - deal or no-deal. And here's why... 1/

The UK's goal in EU negotiations is to declare victory / sovereignty. Sounds good. But the problem is that there will always be winners and losers in a big trade deal, because it covers everything and involves compromising with the other side. An immediate problem. 2/

Take fish, on which apparently talks are stuck. No deal means we regain full control of our waters. Victory! And sell the fish where? EU tariffs and checks. Not victory. So share waters? But then, defeat! Point being, if you don't explain, the result will disappoint. 3/

We don't want the EU setting our rules and regulations. So minimal sovereignty provisions. No-deal and victory! But then what about the car manufacturers no longer viable? Ok, compromise. But then no win on sovereignty, or perhaps call it "freedom clauses"... 4/

Northern Ireland, customs checks, rules of origin, security cooperation and so on... all inevitably to require compromise. But if your game was all about victory and sovereignty, then what? Not make a decision perhaps? 5/
ECONOMY
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit. UK-EU talks. Let's try to explain why we're in such a state, of increased risk of no deal, moving away from the fish and playing fields which are the detail but not the answer, to differing philosophies and divorce parallels that might just help... 1/

First, with apologies to those concerned, we need to go beyond those saying this is the inevitable path to deal / no-deal. Half of them will be right and I'll definitely be wrong (don't worry, I'm hedged in wine bets), but it wasn't inevitable, typical, or necessary. 2/

I'll also ignore the content of any deal, which has been clear for months, the UK compromises on level playing field, the EU on fish. Something so obvious really isn't the fundamental issue. Could, as some not noted for their perspicacity have said, be done in an afternoon. 3/

Some truth in the idea that flounces and playing the tough cop are a part of trade negotiations. But equally as we're in about the 5th pass of these, I think it has ceased to be helpful. Either side could already have cut the deal having shown their toughness. 4/

Some fundamentals then, that we've forgotten. First, the trade deal that will lead to much less free trade than before. The incentive structures, the ability to create a win-win, are inevitably going to be different to a normal deal. 5/
BREXIT

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Henry Farrell
Henry Farrell
@henryfarrell
1. Short thread - on the various claims we're seeing from Republican politicians over the last few days that the Democratic push for accountability is "divisive." Damn right it's divisive - that is what it has to be.

2. It is intended to enforce a clear division between those who accept and are committed to democracy and those who are willing to turn to violence when the vote doesn't turn out the way that they want it to.

3. One of the basic implications of Adam Przeworski's theoretic work is that democracy is made out of mutually reinforcing expectations, and those expectations are fragile. If some actors think they would be better off defecting from the democratic bargain, they will.

4. In other words: democracy and armed factionalism are far closer than we think, or we would like them to be. This means that it is incredibly important to police the boundaries between them. Allowing some to turn to violence can lead to expectation collapse and cascading ruin.

5. When we allow the divisions to become blurred, that means that we are running the perpetual risk of things getting fucked up. If a major faction turns to violence, and no-one responds, things can get really fucked up really, really fast.
POLITICS
Mike Dunford
Mike Dunford
@questauthority
Good morning, electoral lunacy followers. Welcome to what I suspect will be the 2020 equivalent of the Orly Taitz litigation: Sidney Powell Sues Everoyen For LAL Of Teh ThInGs

This is the first of what will (hopefully) be a limited number of #Kraken-related threads.

That said, I doubt the number will be limited. I think Sidney Powell is the Orly Taitz of the Biden Administration.

And I doubt I've acquired enough maturity since my younger birther-watching days to ignore these. So, yes, at least for cases with public dockets, I'm here.

We've got two filings so far - a Michigan one (King v Whitmer) that has been filed, and a Georgia one (Pearson v Kemp) that cannot presently be located on PACER.

This may be because there are parallel Quorts not in the system but maybe it just didn't get filed.

Here's how I'm going to deal with that - I'll start livetweeting King (the filed one) in a little bit, after I do some turkey prep. I'll do that in this thread, but probably even slower and more interrupted than usual - so you might just want to bookmark and come back later.

Tonight, if there's interest, I might be both willing and able to stream a read of the (maybe unfiled) GA case on Twitch tonight.
POLITICS
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Met a Brazilian-American Lyft driver from San Diego who passionately attacked the racism of Republicans, then switched to passionately defending Bolsonaro.

If I were Thomas Friedman, I could tell you what this means.

Met a Haitian-American in a restaurant who said he'd always vote for Democrats because of the immigration issue, but that he has conservative beliefs too. "I don't want to pay for someone's abortion!", he declared.

Met a Latino Lyft driver from San Jose who said that while he was liberal, California was getting too liberal for him and he was considering moving to San Antonio.

Again, not being Tom Friedman, I am unable to offer any commentary on the political and policy implications of these conversations.

I guess my only thought is that political opinions are pretty complex and multidimensional, out there in the real world.

(end)
POLITICS
Pirate croco
Pirate croco
@pirate0991
Ok as a French Muslim, i think, i must to explain to EVERYONE what’s this exactly about the “Halal” ban slaughter (1/8)

Recently, many have seen some tweets saying that the slaughter of animals with the "halal" ritual will be banned in France. (2/8)

But, unfortunately, this is the problem of the networks, no one will go digging to know more, laziness trivialized in these modern times surely. (3/8)

Know what you must to know it’s they banned only those who use the electronarcosis then they slaughter the animal with the halal ritual.
Before it was permissible by the French law but not by the European rules. (4/8)

Also theses three mosques (Evry, Paris, Lyon) who’re mentioned on many articles about this, you must to know now, they already cheated with the whole French Muslim community. (5/8)
POLITICS
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𝙹𝚘𝚑𝚗 𝚆𝚎𝚜𝚕𝚎𝚢...
@thepalemoonlt
Here's why I bother to do the search, and even take the time to check.

This is part of a pattern that as detailed by Mueller, and has been proven by reputable studies since then. Here are parts of an Oxford report on the goals of the ongoing social media operations of Russia. https://t.co/qapD8Eh2SQ


https://t.co/nJPPOwF1MA

The full report can be found here.

https://t.co/1q525xWYZE

Excertps from the 2019 Senate Intelligence Committee Report on Russian Actove Measures Campaigns and Interference:


Also form the Senate Intelligence Committee report
POLITICS

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Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
Keep dwelling on this:
Further Examination of the Motif near PRRA Reveals Close Structural Similarity to the SEB Superantigen as well as Sequence Similarities to Neurotoxins and a Viral SAg.

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https://t.co/EwwJOSa8RK


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https://t.co/BsY8BAIzDa
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Similar to neurotoxins from Ophiophagus (cobra) & Bungarus genera & neurotoxin-like regions from three RABV strains
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Superantigenic core, consistently aligned against bacterial or viral SAgs
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Joey Tawadrous 🇮🇪...
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Lakshminarayan G
Lakshminarayan G
@narayanagl
The Chanting of following names of Bhagwan Vishnu, immensely helps us in overcoming the obstacles in our daily life.
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|. "Om Vashatkaaraaya Namaha" : For Success in Business.
||. "Om Aksharaaya Namaha" : For Success in Studies.


|||. "Om Bhuthabhavanaya Namaha" : For Good Health.
|V. "Om Paramaathmane Namaha" : For Self Confidence.

Src: VAK magazine from Chilkur Balaji Temple, Hyderabad - Sri @csranga
#SanatanaDharma #SanatanaSanskriti #Sattology

One needs to chant the following slokas 28 times to get rid of certain problems in life.
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Om vidhatre Namah - Pregnant Ladies to Chant for healthy babies.
Chant the following 108 times :
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