2/14
A brief update to the focal S:N501 builds to start your Friday off right! This one includes data from 7 Jan 21.
We have about 20 new sequences each in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7 #b117) & 501Y.V2.
Let's take a look at the new sequences, starting with 501Y.V1
1/14
https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0
2/14
3/14
Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 2 new sequences are identical (possible local transmission), & 2 differ by 2 mutations (1 each).
4/14
5/14
6/14
Zooming in (divergence view), we can see it is identical to 2 older sequences, which may indicate local transmission or a common exposure.
7/14
(UK data may be affected by subsampling due to large sequence numbers.)
8/14
These are a mix of separate introductions & local transmission.
Connections to French sequences are in the next tweet...
9/14
They are related to seqs from England, but whether this is European transmission or exposure to common diversity in S Africa can't be distinguished clearly.
10/14
The other 5 cluster together, but are separated by a 1-3 mutations. This could indicate local transmission or transmission from unsampled South African diversity.
11/14
Remember: many countries are currently focusing sequencing efforts on S:N501 variants, so frequencies are often not true representations of the 501Y variants.
13/14
https://t.co/c7wlQOLRiq
More from Dr Emma Hodcroft
🎉Happy New Year!🎉
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)
1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23
The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23
In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23
To kick off 2021, here's an update on:
- S:N501 variants (501Y.V1/V2) with data from 31 Dec 2020
- 69/70del variants
- 20A.EU1 variant (most prevalent variant in Europe)
(Here are some fireworks that look a bit like phylogenies! 🎆)
1/23
The latest sequences from 31 Dec show new sequences in the S:N501Y.V1 variant (originating from SE England) from Netherlands, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Canada, the USA, Germany, Switzerland, & India.
2/23
S:N501 link
https://t.co/TfHfPgBEBS
Image link
https://t.co/3aCKv1pAcI
Canada, Germany, & Switzerland all have sequences that fall in 501Y.V1 for the first time, scattered across the tree.
3/23
The USA also has its first 2 sequences that fall in 501Y.V1, from Colorado & California. India also had its first 3 sequences, also from different regions.
In both cases, the sequences are not connected, indicating separate introductions.
4/23
In countries with previous sequences:
6 new sequences from Netherlands, in orange/yellow (green are older).
1 is clearly separate - zooming in (& in divergence view, coloured by country) it is harder to determine the relationship between the others.
5/23
Each day brings new challenges, but here's an update to the dedicated S.N501 build, using data from 6 Jan 2021 to keep you going.
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.
1/14
https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.
https://t.co/XA8VR8HiEq
2/14
Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:
3/14
Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.
4/14
Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.
5/14
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) & 7 new non-South-African sequences in 501Y.V2.
1/14
https://t.co/kT1gFsSZn0
There are 42 new non-UK sequences in 501Y.V1 from the Netherlands, Italy, Hong Kong, Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, Switzerland, Brazil, and the first sequence from 501Y.V1 in Oman.
https://t.co/XA8VR8HiEq
2/14
Oman has their first sequence which falls into 501Y.V1:
3/14
Finland has 12 new sequences (orange), which mostly represent separate introductions. Zooming in (divergence view), we can see 3 of the new sequences are identical (red), which may indicate the cases are connected.
4/14
Sweden has 8 new sequences (orange), which indicate separate introductions.
5/14
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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
Ironies of Luck https://t.co/5BPWGbAxFi
— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) March 14, 2018
"Luck is the flip side of risk. They are mirrored cousins, driven by the same thing: You are one person in a 7 billion player game, and the accidental impact of other people\u2019s actions can be more consequential than your own."
I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.
In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.
So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.
Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
