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X : Do you think cloud will decentralise?
Me : Already has - started with regions and AZs and is now rapidly expanding into outpost, greengrass, EKS anwhere.
X : No, I mean many providers.
Me : There are two forms of decentralisation - provision and control (i.e. authorities) ...

 ... what is happening is decentralisation of provision (i.e. cloud everywhere, at the edge) but under centralised authorities (Amazon, Alibaba, MSFT, Google etc).
X : What about decentralisation of control?
Me : Many companies working to a common standard ...
... that was the dream of OpenStack but they blew that on day one creating a collective prisoner dilemma. They are trying to recorrect this with K8s but the cloud has moved on, higher up the stack ...
... so, the idea of a marketplace of many different companies each having authority is ... wishful thinking by past vendors and clients they've hoodwinked. Maybe in 15-20 years we will get another go ... open source is a long game ...
... more likely is many points of provision i.e. companies offering EKS anywhere on a utility basis but under centralised authority e.g. AWS.

So, yes, the cloud is going to edge, has been for sometime but it'll be AWS / Alibaba / MSFT cloud that is everywhere.
X : Open source as a long game?
Me : When it comes to unseating a commodity, it's not easy. ASF has the long term view and the community players to make this sort of stuff happen. You won't get there with a "quick rush, grab some VC money and profit" approach.
X : I thought you said 10-15 years?
Me : That was back in 2015. A lot of damage has been done to Open Source since then. You can barely move without some new Open Source Foundation dropping on you. A lot of rebuilding is needed - https://t.co/cOLhmywQdE
... it might well be that the Open Source challenge comes from China. There is some good community work happening there, well worth keeping an eye on.
X : Alternatives?
Me : Amazon et al continue their open source approach and it'll all be open sourced anyway. You'll be able to build your entire stack but you'll still use those centralised authorities because whilst it'll be distributed, it'll be "on chip".
X : "On chip"
Me : Yep. EC2 on chip is already happening, in the near future it'll be Lambda on chip.
X : A Lambda chip in your laptop?
Me : I would guess it'll eventually be in your home router, connected via project kuiper and sidewalk to a world wide mesh. You don't get much more distributed than that.
X : An Amazon router for every home with a Lambda chip?
Me : Well, yes ... I'd imagine that some future combination of Echo and Eero would have this covered. But we're not there yet.
X : What about the telcos?
Me : Well, they should have provided a standardised IoT gateway / hub about a decade ago. Not my problem, they created this mess for themselves with all their fighting over traffic shaping and trying to profit from pipes. Tough luck.
X : Tough luck?
Me : Well, for the future generation of executives who take over. The current crop have plenty of time to comfortably retire and claim that "it was all fine when I was in charge" whilst writing a few memoirs on their marvellous leadership etc.
X : Chambers?
Me : Lol. I normally look at a company seven years after the executive has finally left to determine how successful they were. In the case of Cisco, I'll take a look in 2024 and tell you what I think.
X : Seven years?
Me : Yep. Some of my past research indicates that seven years is the right timeframe. Ideally executive compensation (stock, options etc) should vest seven years after they've left. It would certainly give a longer term perspective.
Me : Such an approach would benefit both shareholders and employees. It would also end sweat and acquire games along with a host of other short term measures. The focus would be much more on the legacy created.
X : Does anyone do this?
Me : Not that I'm aware of.
X : But doesn't they create an incentive to leave?
Me : Well, an incentive to leave with a bright future and the right people and plans in place ... yes ... that's the point.
X : Immediate needs?
Me : Loans against future expected earnings. There'll be market contracts for that.
X : So will this happen?
Me : No.
X : Why?
Me : The problem is the shareholders. It's of benefit to long term holders but not to short term holders. The current system suits those looking for that quick return. You'd have to change the market to start thinking about long term.
X : How?
Me : Minimum terms i.e. if you're investing in a company then you'd have to hold the stock for at least a decade. Back to the old ways of long term investing.
X : Will that happen?
Me : Not in my lifetime. Too many financial instruments are built on the short term.
X : And that's bad?
Me : Well, it encourages certain behaviour i.e. when we detect a change is happening (like a shift from product to utility) then we invest in the long term (i.e. the utility) but still invest in the past world as long as it plays sweat and acquire.
X : ?
Me : The old world needs to squeeze assets, purchase equivalent distressed companies, squeeze more and return value until there is nothing left to squeeze in which case it goes over the cliff. We double up by shorting at that point. So ...
... short term return from old players plus chance of shorting plus long term return from utility players. Rinse and repeat.
X : Long term holdings would stop that?
Me : Yep. We'd have to encourage companies to evolve / adapt. Adds more risk to shareholders. Not going to happen.
X : Given modern political and economic history, I’ve learned not to immediately rule out possibilities.
Me : Fair point. Ok, "not going to happen without a fight" ... too many vested interests.

More from Simon Wardley

Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
To gauge the maturity of an organisation, use the doctrine table


To gauge how evolved a component is within the value chain, use the cheat sheet


Obviously, the cheat sheet isn't relevant to organisations that haven't matured enough to understand their users, user needs, the details (value chain) nor understand what is being considered (how evolved the components are) i.e. all those phase I basics of doctrine.

Likewise, those basic economic patterns used for anticipation of change are fairly pointless without phase I to II of doctrine in place


and there is no point in talking strategic gameplay or organisational change until you've got most of the doctrine (phase I to III) up and working
ALL
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Can you apply pace layers to maps?
Me : You can but what is where evolves. However, same rules apply to things, practices, data, knowledge and ethical values. All are forms of evolving capital. In the mapping world, we refer to this with pioneers, settlers and town planners.


X : What's the robot for?
Me : Image from an older presentation slide, don't worry it has no relevance.
X : Is this linked to diffusion?
Me : Not simply. Evolution of a single component can consist of many hundreds of diffusion curves i.e. a virus diffuses but it also evolves.

X : Why have you got DevOps in legacy? We haven't even started yet.
Me : That's not my problem. I would take a look at serverless.
X : DevOps is serverless.
Me : Some of the practices maybe co-opted (see ITIL vs DevOps) but the new faction will decide what it is or isn't.

X : I also disagree with your methods graphic.
Me : Do you mean this? As applied to the following map?
X : Yes. Lean is suitable for innovation.
Me : Ah, that depends upon what you mean by innovation. If you mean Genesis then lightweight XP has it beat.


X : I disagree.
Me : Well, I've had 15 years of people telling me that Agile works everywhere or Lean works everywhere or Six Sigma works everywhere and why all the competing methods don't. I have no interest in the conversation. Use appropriate methods based upon context.
INTERNET
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Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : Thoughts on private companies being on the boards of ICS (integrated care systems).
Me : Conflict of interest question? Supplier determining needs?
X : Yes
Me : It's ok, as long as
a) you have effective spend control
b) those private companies are JVs which Gov owns 51% of.

X : What if they are not 51% owned JVs?
Me : Ah, that's a bad idea. You really want your boards to have your interests at heart.
X : What about experience, partnership?
Me : Those are advisors and you take it with a pinch of salt and as much as possible use critical friends.

Suppliers will always tell you that they want to be your partners, to build a relationship, to be your friends, to find the win/win in much the same way a second hand car salesperson wants to be your buddy ... but their interests are not yours and never can be.

X : Critical friends?
Me : Occassionaly you can find critical friends. People that we willing to tell you the truth as they see it regardless of the consequences. They are not very common and it normally requires a deep sense of duty that exceeds any loyalty to others.

X : Can the relationship be symbiotic?
Me : Rarely but that depends. If the organisation has a core overiding principle of focusing on the customer need and I don't mean lip service to this but absolutely embedded into its very core then yes i.e. places like Amazon, Alibaba etc.
GOVERNMENT
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
X : When is #mapcamp happening this year?
Me : Wed, Oct 13th.
X : What's the plan?
Me : Right now? Find some funding.

X : How much do you need?
Me : For a 1500 - 3000 person online event? Back of envelope calculation ... about £50k to make it happen. LEF has kindly sponsored it for the last few years but we now need to stand it up on its own two feet.

X : What does that mean?
Me : Like all events, it's a risk profile. So, today the chance of #mapcamp happening is 0%, as we raise some funds, identify costs and find ways of reducing costs etc then that chance increases to a point that we can say ... yep, we can do this.

X : What about ticket sales?
Me : Nothing can ever be guaranteed, so you have to position it to the point that if everything goes wrong the liability is acceptable. Ask me in a month then I'll have a better idea.

X : If it's all about cost, reducing liability etc ... why does anyone run an event?
Me : For the same reason we speak at events. We love the subject. If you didn't then you'd be mad.
SOCIETY
Simon Wardley
Simon Wardley
@swardley
"Fifty-nine percent of those polled said they believed China will become more powerful than the U.S. within 10 years" - https://t.co/3vN4I1TjwP ... I hate to break it to you but it already is in many areas.

When I published this work (originally from 2015) - https://t.co/GYOItA3StZ - I did tend to get a lot of pushback from US folk when presenting it.

Six years later, less so.


I expect China to start to tackle inequality this year. It's the Achilles heel of the West. We have no response, nor Governments with the required skill, strategy or practice to respond.

We will ultimately face a more advanced, more wealthy and more equal society ...

... as that example of what "is possible" / "good looks like" shift to the East, we will face a painful shift as we question our own values including our kind of democracy. But in reality, the problem is not with our values but our shockingly poor standards of leadership.

X : Is this because of Trump?
Me : No, this has been going on since the 1990s. There has been no effective counterplay to the long game that Deng Xiaoping started. Just hubris, arrogance and exceptionalism with annual Economist articles on "How China will fall".
POLITICS

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jeevan patwa
jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa
#Suven – Journey of my first 50 bagger…

I bought #Suven first in Apr 2013 around Rs 20…today after almost 7.5 years, its Rs 1000 (Suven pharma 920 adjusted for bonus + Suven Life 80)..CAGR of almost 68% for 7.5 years. I am fortunate to hold it throughout the journey and

1/n

add on multiple occasions on way up. Like to share my experience in this thread for everyone’s benefit..

First time I bought because I like the management focus on R&D. It had chosen the most difficult therapeutic area in pharma which is CNS and it was investing the cash

2/n

flow it used to earn from CRAMS. It also used to write off all the R&D expenses in the P&L instead of capitalizing it in BS. That gave me lot of comfort about management quality.

I kept on adding as funds keep coming. I remember giving a public presentation on Suven in

3/n

Mumbai at one analyst meet in Nov 2017 when it was trading at Rs 160. There was a huge call option embedded at that time in the form of SUVN-502. That would have been the blockbuster molecule if succeeded with market potential of $10 Bn plus..result was due in Dec 2019,

4/n

I loaded around 250-300 knowing the value of CRAMS business itself is more than 300.

SUVN-502 failed in phase-II trials, stock was down 15% from 300 to 250 in a single day, I added heavily. it was largest allocation in my portfolio because I knew the value of CRAMS business

5/n
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Vanessa Wills
Vanessa Wills
@vcwills
We need to stop imagining the Jan 6 fascists are purely "brainwashed," misguided, etc. Neither are they guided by white supremacy *only*.

They are largely a vanguard of principled petty bourgeois reactionaries who oppose democracy whether in its mass/working-class or liberal bourgeois form. They have allies in the most conservative and reactionary corners of the "big" bourgeoisie.

They see through a funhouse mirror the hypocrisy of liberal bourgeois democracy (no, the electoral college is not "sacred" 🙄). They also vehemently abhor the capacity of true democracy—socialism—to liberate oppressed, exploited workers upon whom their precarious fortunes depend.

To the extent liberal bourgeois democracy engages mass politics and gives even a highly attenuated and mostly suppressed voice to the working masses, that section of the petty bourgeoisie which turns to fascism regards liberal democracy as a betrayal. Only capital should speak.

The woman who died attacking the Capitol Building was a small business owner from San Diego. Yes, her head was full of conspiracist nonsense but she didn't just invent that lockdowns and worker protections might save lives but hurt her bottom line.
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Johnny Silverhand
Johnny Silverhand
@SparesofWar
@ImPranav_M @GunduHuDuGa That's a good qsn, if not a bit nuanced. Avataras are of many varieties and frankly, most of the classification is only for our understanding and not really binding on Paramatma Himself. We can take several approaches to understanding this. If you go by a Vedantic approach,+

@GunduHuDuGa Avatara means that which descends from an exalted state (Taara). Going by Upanishadic observaton of Purnam adham purnam idham, every manifestation of Bhagavan is indeed wholesome. In fact, Avataras usually happen when Iswara is propitiated with certain qualities already+

@GunduHuDuGa described in the Vedas by other Devatas. So, in order to please them, He assumes the form that best envisages the said Vaidika tatvam. For example, Varaha and Nrusimha avatars, though they have sthoola prayojanas, also exemplify the Tejovanna tatvam propounded by Upanishads.+

@GunduHuDuGa All these tatvams ultimately emanate from Him so whatever form He takes is indeed Purna. Now, one may ask then if that's the case, why such a distinction had to be made in the first place. That is because of upasana vidhis and understanding of how Bhagavad tatvam shines+

@GunduHuDuGa with each Leela being performed. Let's take Nrusimha avatar. The purpose of the avatar is neither to save Hiranyakasipu nor rescue Prahlada. For that He need not descend down as H's boons are applicable only for Brahman's creation and not Paramatma Himself.+
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Angelo Carusone
Angelo Carusone
@GoAngelo
1/ All I keep thinking about in this moment are all the horrible things that Rush Limbaugh did and said. Just flashes of them.

Like how following Trayvon Martin's death, he tried to convince people it was okay to say "n word" now as long as you ended with an "a" (and said it).

2/ Or how, one of his "undeniable truths" was that "Feminism was established so as to allow unattractive women easier access to the mainstream of pop culture."

3/ Or how if a prominent woman would publicly defend another woman, he would refer to it as "solidarity of the vaginas."

4/ How he absolutely hated Michelle Obama...and used to refer to has as "moo-chelle." He really liked this because it both attacked her for mooching off system as he claimed and because it was his way of calling her a cow (he thought she was fat).

5/ He had this one song called "Barack the Magic Negro." The lyrics were even more racist than the name. And he played it all the time. He was still playing that song during his show a few months ago.
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Lunar Whale Rider
Lunar Whale Rider
@mistermegative
Ok. I’ve organized my thoughts about the revival of Six Days in Fallujah. I want to approach this through the lens of someone who was IN Fallujah during 2004-2005, during some of the worst urban combat US Forces have ever experienced.

Let’s get a few things out of the way: the invasion of Iraq was a war crime. Period. Argue otherwise and I’ll block you. Does that make myself and others who fought war criminals? No, of course not. Did individual soldiers and Marines commit war crimes? Absolutely.

I’m someone who is deeply proud of my service. I tried my hardest to conduct myself as humanely as possible. I’m also someone who was forced to do things I’m not proud of to survive. Taking lives should never be a point of pride.

Iraq was a failure of our own making. Not only did we invade illegally, we did it without a plan. The vast majority of the insurgency were disaffected Iraqi soldiers without a job after we broke apart their military, not religious fanatics.

Yes, groups like AQI showed up to fight, but they came after we handed them a major propaganda victory by showing up in the first place and turning PMCs like Blackwater loose. There was little to no cultural sensitivity training.
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Damodar Hegde
Damodar Hegde
@DamodarHegde4
MUST READ TILL END:
FB POST BY MR PRABEER BASU,
IAS-1976(BIHAR)
" Received a hurtful post from an old friend and colleague. He was on my daily Broadcast list of WhatsApp. He requested that I do not send him any of my posts on 'political' issues. I gave him a long explaination
>2

2/29
on why I write and what I write. But he was not convinced.

Being alerted by him thus, I felt I should clarify to all who read my posts on what exactly I think and do.

The charge against me is that I wrongly support our current Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi..
>3

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and that it establishes I am not rational and impartial anymore.
Let me try and explain.First and foremost,I do not write on 'political' issues. I write on 'national' issues. For example, I have no opinion on whether Rahul Gandhi should be President of his party or not.
>4

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Similarly, I have no views whether BJP is a better party than Congress or vice versa.
Even after 36 years in the IAS I have no MLA, MP or anyone involved in politics whom I can classify as my friend or even acquaintance.
>5

5/29
So, naturally I don't care which party wins or loses as long as the winning party runs an honest government doing good to my nation.
Now, why I speak in favour of Shri Modi:

1. Ever since the beginning of my service I realised that Planning Commission was not serving..

>6
INDIA
Angad Singh
Angad Singh
@Singh7575
𝙎𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙢𝙮 𝙬𝙞𝙨𝙙𝙤𝙢 𝑾𝒐𝒏'𝒕 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒇 𝒕𝒐𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒘 𝒖 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒖𝒇𝒇 𝒊𝒏 50𝒌 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒌𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒑 𝒐𝒓 𝒔𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒚 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒈𝒊𝒄
Simple and effective way 2 make Money


Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1

After closing below S1 if it closes above S1 next day or any day enter the same position again vice versa for R1

Idea2:- Use R1 and S1 corresponding strikes multiple
Incase of R1 15337 take 15300ce
N in case of S1 14221 use 14200pe
Sell both and hold till expiry or exit if nifty closes below S1 or above R1 around closing
If the same bounces above S1 and falls below R1 re-enfer same strikes

Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty

(This is must)Use this margin rule for 1lot banknifty pair keep 4Lax margin
For nifty one lot keep 3Lax
For usdinr 100lots keep 4Lax

I bet you if you do this on consistent basis your ROI will be more than 70% on yearly basis.

Couldn't explain easier than this

Criticisms are most welcomed.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , MONTHLY OPTIONS SELLING , OPTIONS LEARNING
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Will Buxton
Will Buxton
@wbuxtonofficial
The Haas / Force India argument is fascinating, and the decision of the stewards may still have consequences. The first key finding is that the stewards ruled Racing Point Force India to be a valid constructor. That means that it builds its own cars.

Haas had argued that the cars had been designed by Force India, but as Haas knows only too well, "outsourcing" is legal. The stewards decided that "there is no regulatory support for the argument that Outsourcing of Listed Parts cannot come from a former or excluded team."

In determining this, the stewards also came to the following conclusion: "In relation to the submission by the Racing Point Force India F1 Team that it is not a new team, the Stewards decide that the Racing Point Force India F1 Team is indeed a new team."

This will have a big knock on effect for Haas in its continued arguments over the rights of RPFI as relates to its eligibility and rights under the complex payments structure. Haas has argued all along that RPFI should be treated as a new team and tread the same path that it did.

TLDR? Haas lost the fight but may have won the war. In having its argument that Racing Point hadn't designed their own car thrown out, they gained clarification that RPFI was a new team.
SPORT
Simon DeDeo
Simon DeDeo
@SimonDeDeo
One thing that goes unremarked about Wikipedia: the vast majority of the content was written over 12 years ago—which means (given turnover) that the editors dominant today were not directly involved in that creation.

Put another way, the editors who built the dominant nodes in this network...


...have little overlap with the ones who made this much more recent managerial flowchart.


Internet time runs at hundred-fold speed—the difference between the people who painted what's in the Uffizi, and the people in charge of keeping those paintings from deteriorating. Very different tasks, and (one presumes) very personalities as well. @PaulSkallas?
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Egypedia
Egypedia
@Egypediax
Ancient Egypt was the most advanced civilization in the ancient world. Why was Egypt so special?

There are so many firsts in Egypt that we all know about, and that makes Egypt unique. For example, the Sumerians did not build the pyramids of Egypt.


Save as history
HISTORY