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Weird feeling. After 10.5 years and roughly £21,000 of debt- I finally paid off the last instalment of my student loan today.

Next month, for the first time- I’ll receive my full post tax salary, for the first time since I graduated.

 Sharing as an example of how the system works in practice. In truth I only seriously started paying off the capital in the last few years, when I started to earn a good salary, paying roughly £400 a month off. I suspect many will never significantly eat into the capital.
That’s especially the case for those those under the new regime, who have over £50k of debt. I was lucky in a) lower fees (3k not 9k) and maintenance grant (not loan) still existed.

Indeed IFS forecasts that 83% of students from PST 2012 reforms won’t fully pay back their loan.
Of course those who don’t pay off their fees, the cost will eventually have to be absorbed by the Treasury. Having 17% pay back all and the rest some will still be cheaper for HMT than no loans at all. But we should recognise the a) odd conceit that we have a system of loans...
...which the vast maj will never pay back and that instead b) that graduates are paying in effect a topped up rate of income tax for many, many years.
There are two other things to say about the system 1) the fact of this topped up income tax is another burden for graduates trying to accumulate capital for buying a house/save for a pension etc 2) there is an inequity issue. Wealthier students often receive support...
...from family to reduce (or eliminate) their loans. With George Osborne’s abolition of the maintenance grant (and replacement with another loan) that inequity has become greater. Poorer students start working life as poorer graduates...
...taking home less of their salary than their more privileged counterparts.

Of course, HE has to be paid for and graduates pay according to their ability to do so (as their salary goes up). But as I say, important to see the system for what it is and how it works in practice.
Graduates graduating today will often have over £50k of debt. An enormous figure especially when one considers their experiences of late and labour market they’re graduating into.
Even when things get better and *some* get good salaries it will take them many, many years- paying a big chunk of their post tax salaries to get into any position of paying it off.

The rest will likely have it hovering over them, in one form or another, until their 50s.
I have no complaints. I have a good job and benefitted hugely from my degree. That said, for the present cohort and that of the last few years there remain questions about a) intergenerational equity b) equity within their generation (for reason identified above)...
...c) sustainability of the student loan book long term. Truth is many politicians have in effect simply deferred the long term cost to the public purse to the decades hence, when many fail to repay. And who will have to deal with that? Ah yes- the grown up students.
To expand on this point for those asking- effectively we have created a system where the same two graduates, earning the same salary, in the same job might have quite substantially different take home pay. And that will most likely be as a result of their family background. https://t.co/nArHkMdQl0
And I should mention something about interest. I paid a lower rate of interest than current students. For those starting in 2020 in England and Wales their rate of interest is 5.6%. So a third year student who owes £30,000 will have £1,680 added to their debt this year.
Therefore, many students will find the capital they owe, even when in work, going up, not down.
You might ask whether that on top of the de facto graduate tax the Plan 2 students are paying, the very large capital sums they must repay, whether an interest rate of 5.6% makes any prospect of repayment, for all those outside the very top jobs, remotely credible.
As a result of the interest, many graduates work for years while their stock of debt goes *up*

So let’s take a graduate on Plan 2 with a debt of £50k and a v respectable starting salary of £28,500.

Despite a good, rising salary their debt *never goes down*. Rises to £113k.
The system I was on (Plan 1) I think can (just) accurately be called a student loan system. The fees were much lower, the maintenance grant still exist to leaven some inequalities and the interest was lower.

For Plan 2 (since 2012) those things are no longer the case.
I’m not saying whether the contributory principle is right or wrong, that’s for others to argue about: what I’m saying is that in particular, post-2012, we in fact have a de facto graduate tax. There’s no realistic prospect of many graduates paying back the stock of debt...
...and so it is, in effect, an extra income tax levy which will exist on graduates for 30 years. The debt will simply escape them and payments continue. I suspect older generations are ignorant of how the system operates in reality simply because they’ve never experienced it.
The fact that it is a de facto graduate tax generates all sorts of policy questions and it’d be better for the graduates and for policy makers to recognise it and treat it as such.

End.

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More study aids and generous grade boundaries for 2021's exams will be welcomed by many teachers and students. But doesn't address a fundamental problem of the next exam season: equity. Because there's great variation in how different schools have been affected by self-isolation.

Let's take the most recent attendance stats which I still don't think have really registered.

Most recent data- attendance rate across England of 83%

In secondary schools it's 78% (!)

So more than 1 in 5 secondary pupils are off school, largely for Covid related reasons.

But that’s just an average. Some schools’ attendance are at levels where they can’t really function, or certainly provide the quality of education they normally do.

Teachers’ are split between trying to run online lessons and those in schools.

Whole year groups are off.

Some students are in isolation, return to school and within days are in isolation again.

As I’ve reported before, IT provision is still patchy. Lots of reports of kids not doing work at home either because they get of the swing of it or they don’t have the IT resources.

And that’s before we get on to staff isolation, which is also proving a nightmare in many places.

In other words, you have to have everything go right for your education not to be impacted by Covid right now. And that’s affecting some places more than others.
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Lewis Goodall
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@lewis_goodall
Overheard in a Newcastle cafe, two very despondent students, clearly not long arrived in the city: “I might as well just go home. What is the point in being here? I told my Mum last night, I just feel so lonely. Wish I’d taken a gap year.” The other nodded, in sad agreement.

More cafe conversations-a woman who has recently gone back to work and is now facing down the barrel of imminent unemployment again with the hospitality shutdown which is prob coming here: “I was so buzzing to get back to work. I can’t believe it’s back. Don’t know what I’ll do.”

A local bar owner who has popped in for a coffee: “up to now we’ve just about been making enough money on Saturday to survive and make it through the rest of the week. Depends what the government does. But we’re on the edge.”

And the cafe owner, been here 19 years: “things had been a bit better but this week trade has fallen off a cliff. I came in yesterday and the day before and I just closed because there was no point. Whatever they announce I’m praying it isn’t for long or they extend furlough.”

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Lewis Goodall
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Some quick thoughts on what we just saw

Firstly hardly a unique insight but hard to overstimate the difference between the two last inaugurals. America has meandered sharply along its political arc.

Biden's rhetoric reached high. Every sentence seemed purposefully...


...constructed to negate every political and personal characteristic of his predecessor.

And insofar as he's not Trump, that he does accept, cherish and understand democratic norms, institutions and conventions in a way that Trump never could, Biden will make a real difference.

He will change the tone and tenor of politics, not only in America but across the West. As I've said before, just replacing Trump is a substantial victory for him and will earn him praise from historians.

But that aura will disappear quickly. A governing project it will not make

But how much praise he receives and stature conferred by posterity will depend on what happens next.

Because the big overarching question for me, watching this, is which of those two inaugurals, Trump or Biden's, is going to seem unusual in the future.

The relief that many are feeling is predicated on a type of politics ending. But it is at least as possible that it is Biden ..not Trump who is the last gasp of something. Is it Trump who is the dying embers of a dying, increasingly powerless old white America...
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Lewis Goodall
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@lewis_goodall
Keir Starmer giving his most important speech yet-laying out his vision for the future.

“The Conservatives say they want to build back. But I don’t want to go back. You can’t return to business as usual. And certainly not back to an economy rooted in insecurity and inequality.”


"The foundations of our society have been weakened over a decade...even before the pandemic life expectancy had stalled for the first time in a century. Child poverty had shot up to over 4 million. A child growing up in a deprived areas of the North East can expect to live for.."

"...five fewer years than a deprived child brought up in a deprived area of London. What sort of legacy is that for a party which has been in govt for a decade? That life itself got cheaper. And shorter."

"During the last year my thoughts have returned time and time again to the wartime generation. Those who suffered the horrors of WW2, who rebuilt Britain from the rubble of the Blitz, created the NHS and built millions of homes fit for heroes. And I contrast that...

"...to those exposed to Covid in underfunded care homes, unable to say goodbye to families and to loved ones. How can the PM look those families in the eye and say 'we did everything we could'? When the truth is the Tories failed to fix social care for a decade?"
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Lewis Goodall
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@lewis_goodall
BREAK: Joe Biden is inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States.

The Trump administration is over.

Technically another 9 mins to go for the official handover. But it’s a formality.

Biden: "This is America's day. This is democracy's day. A day of history and hope....Today we triumph not of a candidate but of a cause. The cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people has been heard. And the will of the people has been heeded."

"At this hour my friends, democracy has prevailed."

Biden thanks his predecessors from both parties "from the bottom of my heart."

With, perhaps, the exception of one.

Biden addresses the pandemic and its economic consequences: "Few people in our nation's history have found themselves in a moment as challenging as the one we're in now...but the dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer."
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