BC SOCIETY
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Some quick thoughts on what we just saw

Firstly hardly a unique insight but hard to overstimate the difference between the two last inaugurals. America has meandered sharply along its political arc.

Biden's rhetoric reached high. Every sentence seemed purposefully...

 ...constructed to negate every political and personal characteristic of his predecessor.

And insofar as he's not Trump, that he does accept, cherish and understand democratic norms, institutions and conventions in a way that Trump never could, Biden will make a real difference.
He will change the tone and tenor of politics, not only in America but across the West. As I've said before, just replacing Trump is a substantial victory for him and will earn him praise from historians.

But that aura will disappear quickly. A governing project it will not make
But how much praise he receives and stature conferred by posterity will depend on what happens next.

Because the big overarching question for me, watching this, is which of those two inaugurals, Trump or Biden's, is going to seem unusual in the future.
The relief that many are feeling is predicated on a type of politics ending. But it is at least as possible that it is Biden ..not Trump who is the last gasp of something. Is it Trump who is the dying embers of a dying, increasingly powerless old white America...
...or is it Biden, in so many ways a 20th century figure, the last of a dying school of presidential and political behaviour?

Right now, we can't know the answer to that question, which man will be the blip.
t goes to the heart of the Trump phenomenon, questions never truly answered. How much is unique to Trump and his personality and how much of it is structural, how much has he transformed how politics is done and changed the way we expected....
...democracies to behave.

After all a future Trump may be a tougher opponent. Because though he may have been a wannabe authortitarian, he wasn't especially skilful at it. Someone with more political skill, who has learnt some of the lessons Trump has inadvertently taught...
...may have more success.

So though today feels like an ending, it might not be. It may just be an interregnum-a brief restoration. Ensuring that it's not is perhaps Biden's biggest task.
Biden's litmus of success is therefore not only going to removing his predecessor from office but also what comes after, not only the person, but the sort of person and the politics they practice. His or something closer to Trump's?
We know the institutions (in the main) managed to contain Trump. But his type of politics appears to have infused deeply into the body politic. If he’s to live up to the rhetoric of that speech Biden has to find a way to drain it. Given huge numbers on the opposite side believe..
...his election was fraudulent, given Trump was an apotheosis (as much as a driver) of long standing forces, given his Congressional majorities are so slender, given the power of misinformation is likely to continue to proliferate, that is going to be exceptionally difficult.
But the task to do so is urgent- because though the institutions contained Trump, he was only a few election officials and possible Congressional majorities away from plunging the country into a very profound constitutional crisis. It all came very close.
In other words, Biden is going to need all the “luck”, Trump wished him. Save for Lincoln in 1861, or FDR in 1933 I can’t think of a more difficult inheritance.
Oh screw it, I know you’re only really here for Mum’s take

More from Lewis Goodall

Lewis Goodall
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Keir Starmer giving his most important speech yet-laying out his vision for the future.

“The Conservatives say they want to build back. But I don’t want to go back. You can’t return to business as usual. And certainly not back to an economy rooted in insecurity and inequality.”


"The foundations of our society have been weakened over a decade...even before the pandemic life expectancy had stalled for the first time in a century. Child poverty had shot up to over 4 million. A child growing up in a deprived areas of the North East can expect to live for.."

"...five fewer years than a deprived child brought up in a deprived area of London. What sort of legacy is that for a party which has been in govt for a decade? That life itself got cheaper. And shorter."

"During the last year my thoughts have returned time and time again to the wartime generation. Those who suffered the horrors of WW2, who rebuilt Britain from the rubble of the Blitz, created the NHS and built millions of homes fit for heroes. And I contrast that...

"...to those exposed to Covid in underfunded care homes, unable to say goodbye to families and to loved ones. How can the PM look those families in the eye and say 'we did everything we could'? When the truth is the Tories failed to fix social care for a decade?"
GOVERNMENT
Lewis Goodall
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Charles Walker, Vice Chair of the 1922 Tory backbench committee in the Commons tells TWTW that he thinks the government knew it intended to “cancel” Christmas on Wednesday or Thursday but waited for Parliament to rise to do it. Says many of his colleagues find this “egregious.”

When put to Walker that Matt Hancock said this morning that wasn’t the case, it was the briefing on Friday which prompted the decision, Walker says: “Hmm yeah...well I’d have to disagree with the SoS on that.” So he’s either saying Hancock isn’t being truthful or is misinformed.

Walker: “Surely at some stage a senior government minister has say I’ve offered my resignation to the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister has to say- very early I’ve had to accept this.”

Reminder- Charles Walker is Vice Chair of the Tory backbench committee.

Walker heavily implies it’s Matt Hancock he wants to see resign: “I’m not asking for the government to collapse. I’m asking for a Secretary of State to take some responsibility.”

The Charles Walker interview is extraordinary in what he is inferring. A senior Conservative MP is essentially accusing his govt and ministers of deceit about what they knew about the new strain and when and by implication the timing of the new lockdown.
GOVERNMENT
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Lewis Goodall
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
BREAK: Joe Biden is inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States.

The Trump administration is over.

Technically another 9 mins to go for the official handover. But it’s a formality.

Biden: "This is America's day. This is democracy's day. A day of history and hope....Today we triumph not of a candidate but of a cause. The cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people has been heard. And the will of the people has been heeded."

"At this hour my friends, democracy has prevailed."

Biden thanks his predecessors from both parties "from the bottom of my heart."

With, perhaps, the exception of one.

Biden addresses the pandemic and its economic consequences: "Few people in our nation's history have found themselves in a moment as challenging as the one we're in now...but the dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer."
BIDEN
Lewis Goodall
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Overheard in a Newcastle cafe, two very despondent students, clearly not long arrived in the city: “I might as well just go home. What is the point in being here? I told my Mum last night, I just feel so lonely. Wish I’d taken a gap year.” The other nodded, in sad agreement.

More cafe conversations-a woman who has recently gone back to work and is now facing down the barrel of imminent unemployment again with the hospitality shutdown which is prob coming here: “I was so buzzing to get back to work. I can’t believe it’s back. Don’t know what I’ll do.”

A local bar owner who has popped in for a coffee: “up to now we’ve just about been making enough money on Saturday to survive and make it through the rest of the week. Depends what the government does. But we’re on the edge.”

And the cafe owner, been here 19 years: “things had been a bit better but this week trade has fallen off a cliff. I came in yesterday and the day before and I just closed because there was no point. Whatever they announce I’m praying it isn’t for long or they extend furlough.”

This cafe btw is a cracker, when I lived in Newcastle came all the time. If you’re ever in the area (restrictions permitting) @QuayIngredient is where you need to go.
SOCIETY
Lewis Goodall
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Weird feeling. After 10.5 years and roughly £21,000 of debt- I finally paid off the last instalment of my student loan today.

Next month, for the first time- I’ll receive my full post tax salary, for the first time since I graduated.

Sharing as an example of how the system works in practice. In truth I only seriously started paying off the capital in the last few years, when I started to earn a good salary, paying roughly £400 a month off. I suspect many will never significantly eat into the capital.

That’s especially the case for those those under the new regime, who have over £50k of debt. I was lucky in a) lower fees (3k not 9k) and maintenance grant (not loan) still existed.

Indeed IFS forecasts that 83% of students from PST 2012 reforms won’t fully pay back their loan.

Of course those who don’t pay off their fees, the cost will eventually have to be absorbed by the Treasury. Having 17% pay back all and the rest some will still be cheaper for HMT than no loans at all. But we should recognise the a) odd conceit that we have a system of loans...

...which the vast maj will never pay back and that instead b) that graduates are paying in effect a topped up rate of income tax for many, many years.
FINANCE

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@Noahpinion
Krugman is, of course, right about this. BUT, note that universities can do a lot to revitalize declining and rural regions.


See this thing that @lymanstoneky wrote:

And see this thing that I wrote:

And see this book that @JamesFallows wrote:

And see this other thing that I wrote:
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Kab
Kab
@Kabamur_Taygeta
#NEIOH

1. Beloved Ones!

We Have Important Matters To Discuss With You!  If You Believe This Is A Joke, You Should Leave Now. We Do Not Joke When It Comes To This Planet. AKATU Will Lighten Things To Cheer You. What We Share Now Will Inform You.
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)
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Priyashmita
Priyashmita
@priyashmita
What did failure and going broke teach me?
Here are some of the top few things I learnt.
1. You rarely learn things overnight.Honestly I learnt things over a period of time.I failed 6 years back and today I feel,yes I have learnt a few things.There is no hurry. No exam happening

2. MOST IMPORTANTLY. Failure isn't the end and it's ok to fail. It is not your desired state of affairs but it won't end. Learn to pick up the pieces and try for another day. As Scarelett O'Hara "After all Tomorrow is another day"

3. Don't romanticise failure. It is not something you want people to go through. While it's important to remind people, world won't end, don't make it look like its some romantic notion that every successful person should go through. It isn't

4. It's absolutely fine not to be able to talk about your failure. There is no greatness in speaking about it. I do, cause I came out of it.And yet it took me time. I know how much I struggled to deal with the blow. How ashamed I felt of letting all down. It's part of the process

5. Go for therapy. If you a start up person, reach out to people. Today's start up world is different. People help each other. Reach out. There is a world out there willing to help you. There will be people who will shun you (but you will find more of them when you successful)
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Kavita Krishnan
Kavita Krishnan
@kavita_krishnan
Recently heard the podcast by @sikhyaent on Saravana Bhavan founder P Rajagopal, who stalked the young daughter of an employee & had her husband killed. Observations: the podcast's title ('Dosa King') glorifies PR, the script trivialises his crime, calling it a mere "scandal"

It refers to the whole stalking and murder episode as something that led to Rajagopal's "fall" - i.e a story of crime against a woman is turned into a story about the impact of the said crime on its perpetrator, not its victim.

It refers to the stalking victim as a fit antagonist for the protagonist Rajagopal, as Rajagopal's nemesis. But the point is, she set out to be neither. She didn't make him part of her life story. He forcibly, violently disrupted her life.

The podcast ends by telling us how Rajagopal's employees and friends and many others abuse the woman he stalked, for pursuing the case of her husband's murder and bringing Rajagopal to justice. It also tells us that some admire her. And it "asks us to decide" where we stand

I find it disturbing that a story of a powerful man feeling entitled to ruin a woman's life & trying to get away with murder, is turned into a story of HIS "rise, popularity, and fall".
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Oh are we talking about Sheryl Sandberg again? Well, your reminder that disabled feminists, LGBQT feminists, and feminists of color criticised her ‘lean in’ deal from day one. Don’t let anyone retcon that out of existence.

Like, a pretty narrow slice of feminists actually endorse and support corporate feminism, they’re just white, nondisabled, straight, cis, and noisy so their voices have a bigger reach.

So if your impression is that ‘feminism’ gave her a ‘free pass’ maybe you should question your overall impression of feminism rather than continuing to centre a handful of people as ‘thought leaders’ or whatever.

Critics within feminism have been doing this work for a long time and have been getting shat on it for about as long and I'm tired of seeing them erased. But what do I know — I am, after all, not a feminist.

But I WILL say, from my not-a-feminist perspective, that people who aren’t feminists who are criticising feminism should maybe understand the movement more deeply beyond a handful of high profile celebrity feminists.
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So, on the subject of bonkers hyperbolic pretzeling over the Bell judgement, Grace 'destroy books I don't like & make inappropriate jokes about sterilising teenage girls' Lavery has some thoughts.

Tell me why my feminism is wrong Grace.

Oh

Well, if anyone thought the Bell judgment was going to make TRAs reconsider making massively overblown claims with no evidence backed up with nothing but a thick wadge of emotional blackmail.... HAHAHA, no one thought that.


A high court in the UK made a delimited judgment about teenager's ability to consent to puberty blockers. This puts all trans people everywhere in the world at risk.

Because if any human anywhere has any thoughts that deviate in any way from the rote line dictated by

the trans rights movement, this puts all trans people everywhere in mortal danger.

Let's be honest Grace. It doesn't put trans people at risk. It puts trans ideology at risk. Because trans ideology depends on the idea of innate gender identity, and the trans child is the

necessary material evidence of the ontology of gender identity.

That is, children are being medicalised to provide evidence to underwrite adults identities.

Nothing to see here.
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