BC FINANCE
Saved by @tradrdoc

I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

 6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT 4%.
https://t.co/9fYzeiImQz
2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with this:
https://t.co/LnsbkeBI8f
3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it well:
https://t.co/e7grxwrKkA
4. Reading earnings call transcripts

Here's my secret:

To understand a business in the shortest time...

Read the latest 6-8 earnings transcripts.

There's only one problem - It can get dry.

Ryan's process of blending audio with visual is a great hack:
https://t.co/ExdzI7tJ6a
5. Criteria of multi baggers

All good investing is pattern recognition.

But first, you need to know what patterns to look for.

Qualities like mindshare, optionality, pricing power.

Brian Feroldi breaks down the 10 traits of multi baggers here:
https://t.co/tJ7XF5Xe9q
6. Holding a multi bagger

To profit from a multi bagger...

you first need to HOLD a multi bagger.

Many investors forget that the big money is made from the holding.

Check out this sick thread of how Ram achieved a 100 bagger from Lululemon:
https://t.co/Skv2qLnudK
7. Economic Moats

This concept was made popular by Pat Dorsey.

He shared 4 main moats in his book "The Little Book That Builds Wealth".

Brand...
Network effects...
Switching costs...
Cost advantages...

Thomas does a good job explaining them:
https://t.co/Gg0pqJ3KPG
8. When to buy a stock

I first learnt this years ago from Tom Engle, aka TMF100.

It was in a private board on The Motley Fool.

It taught me how to buy stocks at good value points.

Brian took it a step further and elaborated with real examples:
https://t.co/BPfwr8raaA
9. Earnings vs cashflow

You need to know the difference.

Because many of the best growth companies have negative earnings.

They depress earnings on purpose. To invest in growth.

To value these companies well, you need to understand cash flow.
https://t.co/0nFpJeY7pN
10. Traits of quality companies

I leave the best for the last.

Remember, you're not buying a stock ticker.

You are owning companies.

So learn to spot the attributes of a high quality business.

Thank you Patrick for this gem.

My jaw dropped:
https://t.co/c04ccd683A
*BONUS:

If you enjoyed this and want more useful investing principles...

Here's a few more of my favourite Tweets.

Be sure to check out this thread:
https://t.co/ebbTfPXFVJ
If you found this helpful...

Follow me here at @heymaxkoh

I share about how I attained financial freedom, while still working at a 9-5 job.

Also...

If you'd like to find this thread easily later, you can hop back to the top and retweet this.

https://t.co/j2alJHM42w

More from Max Koh

Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
"The best investments comes from the best businesses"

One of the investors who's made a big impact on me:

@JohnHuber72 of Saber Capital

I spent days pouring thru his articles and interviews in my early days...

Even had a doc with 20 pages of notes!

Here's my top 15 lessons:

1. You don't need original or unique investing ideas

You can simply wait for great businesses to be mispriced.

And then pounce when that happens.

In the meanwhile, don't dilute your portfolio with simply "good ideas"

Only accept the "great" ones


2. John's investing criteria for idiots

• Easy to understand businesses

• Generate lots of FCF

• Partner with good management teams

And then...

Sit back and WAIT for the fat pitch


3. Distaste for strikeouts > Desire for homeruns

John is okay with not making 10x returns in a short time.

And he has come to accept that.

Every investment strategy comes with its own features.

The key is knowing what they are and making sure it fits your personality.


4. One years results don't mean much

This was taken from John's 2016 letter...

1 year results can be random.

Don't feel too sad if you underperform...

Or get too confident when you outperform.

Zoom out and look at your performance over multi year periods instead.
MENTAL MODELS
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
10 super simple steps to research a stock.

In just 3-4 hours:

Overview:

1. Find a sexy angle
2. Analyze the financials
3. Read the annual report
4. Get skin in the game
5. Read earnings calls
6. Understand the leader
7. Understand value prop
8. Read analysis by others
9. Monitor execution
10. Maintenance due diligence

Lets go!

1. Find a sexy story or angle

This is how I begin my research.

It starts with either:

• a product
• a story
• a founder

... that gets me curious.

I think stock screeners are helpful...

But I don’t use them.

I prefer to research companies that genuinely excite me.

2. Analyze the financials

I then proceed to analyze the numbers for the last 2-3 years.

Which is about 8-12 quarters.

Stuff like:

- Revenue growth
- Gross and EBIT margins
- Key customer metrics
- Free cash flow

Seeing the numbers tells me a story.

3. Read the annual report

If the numbers and story are exciting...

I dig deeper into the business through the 10K.

I want to understand the business model...

How they make money...

And the customers they serve.

A step by step guide for
ALL
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Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
One thing I'm always most excited about as an investor:

Watching CEO interviews.

Over the years, I’ve watched over 100s of them.

Here’s 25 traits I’ve seen in the very best leaders.

You can swipe these into your own framework to evaluate management teams:

1. They don’t rely on external motivation

Not status or money.

Instead, they seem to be driven an inner fire.

Sometimes it’s to make the world a better place.

Other times, it’s to prove themselves right.

And that's why they can keep going even after they're already rich AF.

2. They're not human

They don't see the world like 99% of us

Whether it’s creating a culture that’s a sports team vs a family...

Or thinking of everything from first principles…

They have a different modus operandi.

This helps them see solutions that 99% of us muggles miss.

3. They enjoy founder-company fit

The great leaders are great because:

They’re in a company that plays to their unique personality.

The stars have to align for a great leader to be made.

The product + business model + personality of the leader must match.

4. They give lots of freedom and autonomy

They know how to unleash the potential in their team

They know how to paint an exciting vision…

And then give their team the space to roam free.

They understand that people flourish when you give them room to explore and experiment.
STARTUP
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
2 weeks ago, I started reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb.

WOW, It's been mindblowing!

Thanks to @dvassallo 's recommendation.

Inside, there's a part he talks about how to deal with volatility.

Here’s 6 big lessons that are useful in the current market crash:


Lesson #1:
Negative emotions of seeing your stocks drop > Positive emotion from seeing your stocks rise.

"A negative pang is not offset by a positive one...

Some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one)...

... At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained.

If the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency."

Lesson #2:
When we zoom out and check the prices less frequently, we are less affected by negative emotions.

Because over a longer time horizon, the market tends to rise more than it goes down.
BOOKS
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
I'm 31 years old.

10 years ago when I was 21, I had less than $1,000 in my bank.

If you told me I would cross my first $1 mil at age 29, I wouldn't believe you.

But it's not all about $$.

Here's the top lessons I've learnt about habits, happiness, life and death:

1. Wake up early

I learnt this 4 years ago after listening to Jocko Willink.

I’m not a morning person. Until now I'm still not.

But I force myself to rise early most days.

Knowing you’ve accomplished more than others by the morning is a good feeling.

It sets you up right.

2. Lift weights

Everyone in a competitive field should engage in some form of intense physical activity.

For me I lift weights 5-6x a week. But it could be any sport.

It teaches you valuable lessons like:

- showing up consistently
- putting in the reps
- pushing past boredom

3. Have dreams

I recall watching Tony Robbins when I was 16 years old, and that left an impression on me.

Seeing him speak and inspire others from stage, that’s what I wanted to do.

It gave my life a new purpose beyond video games...

I told all my friends about it.

Anyone who would listen, I publicly declared it.

Probably annoyed many of them.

Looking back, I'm blessed to have found what I wanted to do at an early age.

It gave me clarity in choosing my career, and where I chose to invest my time.
SCREENSHOT

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NESARA is the most ground breaking reformation to sweep not only the United States of America but the whole planet (thus GESARA) in its entire history. The act does away with the Federal Reserve Bank, the IRS, the shadow government, and much more.
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10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, we'll cover *State Quantities* and *Flow Quantities*.

This mental model can help us analyze many different entities -- from complex engineering systems to publicly traded companies.


2/

A "State Quantity" is something that's associated with a *specific point in time*.

For example, the number of followers a Twitter account has is a state quantity. This number can go up and down over time. But at any one *specific* time point, it's fixed.

3/

Similarly, the amount of cash a company has is a state quantity.

This cash balance can also rise and fall over time.

But pick any one *specific* time point -- and the company can only have one *specific* cash balance at that time point.

4/

By contrast, a "Flow Quantity" is something that's associated with a time *interval* rather than a time *point*.

For example, the number of followers gained by a Twitter account is a flow quantity. It's meaningful only when we specify a time interval (eg, the last 30 days).

5/

A simple analogy is that a State Quantity is like a photo -- a snapshot at a particular *point* in time.

But a Flow Quantity is like a video -- a record of events that take place during a particular time *interval*.
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Ted Seides
Ted Seides
@tseides
Irresistible to leave this moment alone - a thread to share some investment lessons:

1/ Size matters.
Melvin entered 2021 circa $12 billion in AUM and runs a highly levered balance sheet. That’s a lot of short exposure to move around if needed.

2/ WSB/Reddit captured a market inefficiency.

Stocks are not supposed to have over 100% short interest. Naked short selling is illegal. This set-up should never happen. Kudos to those who took advantage.

How it happened and what it means has rampant ramifications, but in this moment the individuals captured the anomaly.

3/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Keynes said “markets can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.” I suspect this won't take down any significant hedge fund, but it definitely hurts.

3b/ Be careful dismissing “in theory” for those rare moments when it becomes “in practice.”

Academic finance teaches that “a short sale has unlimited downside and limited upside. Those events almost never play out, until they do.
FINANCE , INVESTMENT
Subhadip Nandy
Subhadip Nandy
@SubhadipNandy16
Two year back thread on MFI, someone liked this so came up in notifications . Rather than running around 100s of indicators, I have made this my go to indicator under any circumstances and have been using this for years


This thread actually had some great answers , one can learn a lot about the thought processes of different traders from the answers. Please go thru them
MFI , FINANCE
Thomas Chua
Thomas Chua
@SteadyCompound
Marathon Asset produced several iconic investors such as Nick Sleep and Jeremy Hosking.

Their letters from 2002 to 2015 provided a treasure trove of insights into their investment frameworks and how they look at the capital cycle.

Here are my main takeaways:


1/ Periods of high profitability leads to reckless investments.

When profits are high:

-Boost CAPEX with little regard for ROIC
-Competitors will follow suit to avoid losing market share
-CEO's incentives aren't aligned with shareholders

It's a race to the bottom.


2/ The capital cycle will swing down when investments are taken too far.

Forecasts that were reasonable will now look overly optimistic.

Profits collapse, management teams are changed, CAPEX is cut, and consolidation begins.

This will pave way for a recovery of profits.


3/ Asset growth matters

Consider both asset growth at the company and industry level.

Avoid industries where assets are growing rapidly.


4/ We tend to extrapolate

When overdone, investments that appear logical at first can become disastrous.

We have a tendency to forecast linearly when many things are cyclical.

Examples: trade cycles, credit cycles, etc
BOOKS , FINANCE

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