BC FINANCE
Saved by @tradrdoc

I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

 6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:
1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT 4%.
https://t.co/9fYzeiImQz
2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with this:
https://t.co/LnsbkeBI8f
3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it well:
https://t.co/e7grxwrKkA
4. Reading earnings call transcripts

Here's my secret:

To understand a business in the shortest time...

Read the latest 6-8 earnings transcripts.

There's only one problem - It can get dry.

Ryan's process of blending audio with visual is a great hack:
https://t.co/ExdzI7tJ6a
5. Criteria of multi baggers

All good investing is pattern recognition.

But first, you need to know what patterns to look for.

Qualities like mindshare, optionality, pricing power.

Brian Feroldi breaks down the 10 traits of multi baggers here:
https://t.co/tJ7XF5Xe9q
6. Holding a multi bagger

To profit from a multi bagger...

you first need to HOLD a multi bagger.

Many investors forget that the big money is made from the holding.

Check out this sick thread of how Ram achieved a 100 bagger from Lululemon:
https://t.co/Skv2qLnudK
7. Economic Moats

This concept was made popular by Pat Dorsey.

He shared 4 main moats in his book "The Little Book That Builds Wealth".

Brand...
Network effects...
Switching costs...
Cost advantages...

Thomas does a good job explaining them:
https://t.co/Gg0pqJ3KPG
8. When to buy a stock

I first learnt this years ago from Tom Engle, aka TMF100.

It was in a private board on The Motley Fool.

It taught me how to buy stocks at good value points.

Brian took it a step further and elaborated with real examples:
https://t.co/BPfwr8raaA
9. Earnings vs cashflow

You need to know the difference.

Because many of the best growth companies have negative earnings.

They depress earnings on purpose. To invest in growth.

To value these companies well, you need to understand cash flow.
https://t.co/0nFpJeY7pN
10. Traits of quality companies

I leave the best for the last.

Remember, you're not buying a stock ticker.

You are owning companies.

So learn to spot the attributes of a high quality business.

Thank you Patrick for this gem.

My jaw dropped:
https://t.co/c04ccd683A
*BONUS:

If you enjoyed this and want more useful investing principles...

Here's a few more of my favourite Tweets.

Be sure to check out this thread:
https://t.co/ebbTfPXFVJ
If you found this helpful...

Follow me here at @heymaxkoh

I share about how I attained financial freedom, while still working at a 9-5 job.

Also...

If you'd like to find this thread easily later, you can hop back to the top and retweet this.

https://t.co/j2alJHM42w

More from Max Koh

Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
"The best investments comes from the best businesses"

One of the investors who's made a big impact on me:

@JohnHuber72 of Saber Capital

I spent days pouring thru his articles and interviews in my early days...

Even had a doc with 20 pages of notes!

Here's my top 15 lessons:

1. You don't need original or unique investing ideas

You can simply wait for great businesses to be mispriced.

And then pounce when that happens.

In the meanwhile, don't dilute your portfolio with simply "good ideas"

Only accept the "great" ones


2. John's investing criteria for idiots

• Easy to understand businesses

• Generate lots of FCF

• Partner with good management teams

And then...

Sit back and WAIT for the fat pitch


3. Distaste for strikeouts > Desire for homeruns

John is okay with not making 10x returns in a short time.

And he has come to accept that.

Every investment strategy comes with its own features.

The key is knowing what they are and making sure it fits your personality.


4. One years results don't mean much

This was taken from John's 2016 letter...

1 year results can be random.

Don't feel too sad if you underperform...

Or get too confident when you outperform.

Zoom out and look at your performance over multi year periods instead.
MENTAL MODELS
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
I'm 31 years old.

10 years ago when I was 21, I had less than $1,000 in my bank.

If you told me I would cross my first $1 mil at age 29, I wouldn't believe you.

But it's not all about $$.

Here's the top lessons I've learnt about habits, happiness, life and death:

1. Wake up early

I learnt this 4 years ago after listening to Jocko Willink.

I’m not a morning person. Until now I'm still not.

But I force myself to rise early most days.

Knowing you’ve accomplished more than others by the morning is a good feeling.

It sets you up right.

2. Lift weights

Everyone in a competitive field should engage in some form of intense physical activity.

For me I lift weights 5-6x a week. But it could be any sport.

It teaches you valuable lessons like:

- showing up consistently
- putting in the reps
- pushing past boredom

3. Have dreams

I recall watching Tony Robbins when I was 16 years old, and that left an impression on me.

Seeing him speak and inspire others from stage, that’s what I wanted to do.

It gave my life a new purpose beyond video games...

I told all my friends about it.

Anyone who would listen, I publicly declared it.

Probably annoyed many of them.

Looking back, I'm blessed to have found what I wanted to do at an early age.

It gave me clarity in choosing my career, and where I chose to invest my time.
SCREENSHOT
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Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
10 super simple steps to research a stock.

In just 3-4 hours:

Overview:

1. Find a sexy angle
2. Analyze the financials
3. Read the annual report
4. Get skin in the game
5. Read earnings calls
6. Understand the leader
7. Understand value prop
8. Read analysis by others
9. Monitor execution
10. Maintenance due diligence

Lets go!

1. Find a sexy story or angle

This is how I begin my research.

It starts with either:

• a product
• a story
• a founder

... that gets me curious.

I think stock screeners are helpful...

But I don’t use them.

I prefer to research companies that genuinely excite me.

2. Analyze the financials

I then proceed to analyze the numbers for the last 2-3 years.

Which is about 8-12 quarters.

Stuff like:

- Revenue growth
- Gross and EBIT margins
- Key customer metrics
- Free cash flow

Seeing the numbers tells me a story.

3. Read the annual report

If the numbers and story are exciting...

I dig deeper into the business through the 10K.

I want to understand the business model...

How they make money...

And the customers they serve.

A step by step guide for
ALL
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
2 weeks ago, I started reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb.

WOW, It's been mindblowing!

Thanks to @dvassallo 's recommendation.

Inside, there's a part he talks about how to deal with volatility.

Here’s 6 big lessons that are useful in the current market crash:


Lesson #1:
Negative emotions of seeing your stocks drop > Positive emotion from seeing your stocks rise.

"A negative pang is not offset by a positive one...

Some psychologists estimate the negative effect for an average loss to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one)...

... At the end of every day the dentist will be emotionally drained.

If the unpleasurable minute is worse in reverse pleasure than the pleasurable minute is in pleasure terms, then the dentist incurs a large deficit when examining his performance at a high frequency."

Lesson #2:
When we zoom out and check the prices less frequently, we are less affected by negative emotions.

Because over a longer time horizon, the market tends to rise more than it goes down.
BOOKS
Max Koh
Max Koh
@heymaxkoh
This is value investor, Allan Mecham.

He dropped out of college at age 22 to start his fund, Arlington Value.

From 2008-2016, they did a CAGR of 30% over 8.5 years!

And in his fund letters, he shared his best frameworks for investing in companies.

Here's a breakdown of each:


1. Adopt a mindset for longevity

He focuses on variables that affect a business' durability.

Stuff like valuation doesn't matter if the business quality is misjudged.

Since a company's value is determined by its future cash flows...

Hence evaluating its future is key


2. Stay within your circle of competence

Allan is aware that his CoC is tiny!

Thus, he rarely buys companies that he:

• Hasn't researched
• Hasn't followed for at least a few years.

Because the best way to study a business is to observe its execution overtime.


3. Embrace volatility as a gift

Public markets offer you amazing deals you will never get in the private markets!

It's all about being patient.

The underlying value of a business is much more stable than the stock.

So you can buy great businesses that are mispriced!


4. Avoid noise and news

More information can give you a false sense of confidence.

It can create an illusion of "knowledge", and make you think many things are important.

The key is to know what are the 3-5 main variables in the company, and focus on those.

Ignore the rest.
FINANCE

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Private Chad
Private Chad
@Privatechad_
My Chads, institutions and retail are entering the DeFi space at unprecedented volume. One of the key primitives in DeFi will be the securitization and tranching of DeFi and is still massively undervalued. Enter https://t.co/Gx4H3hIzNg ( $SFI ).

Don't worry, let me ELI5.

1/ Alright so securitization and tranching, that's a mouthful. 👅💦

Let's take a step back. If you look at any financial activity within DeFi, whether it is yield farming, lending or liquidity providing, there are risks involved.

2/ As an honest farmer / liquidity provider, the rewards are yield, and the risk is losing your funds due to e.g. smart contract risk and (potentially) IL.

As an honest lender, the rewards are interest, and risk is default of the borrower.

3/ 99% of the current retail participants don't use portfolio risk management in their DeFi activities. We farm a bit, IL a bit, loan and borrow a bit and hope we make gains at the end of the day. For institutions, portfolio management is much different.

4/ The problem for institutions to enter such DeFi activities as yield farming, liquidity providing and lending/borrowing, is that it's inherently risky and not quantifiable with variable rewards. We early adopters don't mind this risk, but this prevents adoption by institutions.
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Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
ATROCIOUS big pharma price gouging of insulin:

This crying mother can’t afford the $1000 for her son’s insulin.

📌yet, it only costs pharma $5 to produce.

📌Insulin was invented 100 years ago by Fred Banting—who donated patent for $1 to make it free for all.

Let that sink in.


2) Insulin is one of the most disgusting cases of price gouging ever.

America has long taken a free market approach to pharmaceuticals.
Drug companies haggle separately over drug prices with a variety of private insurers across the

3) “Meanwhile, Medicare, the government health program for those over age 65 — it’s also the nation’s largest buyer of drugs—is barred from negotiating drug prices. That gives pharma more leverage, and it leads to the kind of price surges of EpiPens, opioid antidotes, & insulin.”

4) In 2018:
Johnson & Johnson CEO made $30M
Pfizer CEO made $28M
Merck CEO made $18M
Eli Lilly CEO made $16M
Gilead CEO made $16M

Meanwhile:

📌Americans spent $535B on Rx drugs

📌1/4 of diabetics rationed insulin to survive

📌500K Americans went bankrupt from medical bills.

5) What’s the right price patients should pay for medications? ZERO dollars, because no copay ==> more patients get their medicine ==> saves lives and saves money. Copays decrease adherence, and copays hurt patients who actually need them.
FINANCE
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Gurgavin Chandhoke
Gurgavin Chandhoke
@gurgavin
WHY $CCIV CAN TRIPLE SOON.

What is $CCIV ?

CCIV is the fourth SPAC by Michael Klein who already has multiple multi-billion dollar SPAC mergers including $CCC valued at over 19 Billion. CCIV is in TALKS to take @LucidMotors public valuing the merger at over 15 BILLION.


What is LUCID MOTORS?

Lucid Motors is one of the worlds leading EV car "Startups" founded in 2007 in California they were previously known as Atieva. Most of their 1400 employees come from well know car companies such as TESLA and Mazda.

The Lucid motor core team

Peter Rawlinson ( CEO & CTO)

Originally from wales, peter was the Chief Engineer for the TESLA MODEL S. Peter was also the Principal Engineer at @Jaguar Chief Engineer at @lotuscars

Derek Jenkins ( Vice President of Design)

Derek started his journey with 8 years at @Audi working on the Audi A2 & A8 among others. After Audi, he moved to VW where he spent nine years. He is also credited for the design of the CX-5, Mazda6, Mazda3, and the CX-9 among others.

Lucid Air

Lucid Air is the first car by @LucidMotors which is set to release in the summer of this year. Air will have four different variants starting from 69,900 USD which will have up to a 503 MILE RANGE.
FINANCE
Simon Barnett
Simon Barnett
@sbarnettARK
Anyone have any opinions on how self-insured employers consider innovative healthcare offerings to pass on to their employees?

As I understand it, by shouldering the financial risk, self-insured employers can curate a list of more relevant benefits ... (1/10)

... thereby avoiding paying out lofty insurance premiums for services that its employees don't use or want. There seems to be a long list of intangible benefits having to do with talent acquisition and retention, but I'd like to understand the cost equations more fully. (2/10)

In the context of multi-cancer screening, I'm skeptical that it could be cost-saving for small or medium-sized employers (<500 employees). Assuming a representative sample of the population, there are simply too few cancers and too many false positives w/ expensive ... (3/10)

... diagnostic follow-ups to bend the unit-economics in the right direction. Indeed, for larger self-insured employers, maybe on the order of thousands of employees, the dynamics may change. Each true positive is a chance to save on treatment cost and (possibly) to ... (4/10)

... extend life. However, employers won't likely be able to distinguish between true life-extension and lead-time bias without prospective, randomized studies, which are due out in the 2024-25 timeframe. Still, these likely will include interim endpoints only. (5/10)
FINANCE
Trung Phan \U0001f1e8\U0001f1e6
Trung Phan 🇨🇦...
@TrungTPhan
Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.


The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.


Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).


Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.
FINANCE , COUNTERINTUITIVE

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श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
Sri Maha Bhairavar Rudhra alayam, Chengalpet, Tamilnadu

This temple is being constructed merely on the instructions from Bhairava by his devotee Shri Bhairava Siddhantham Swamy. The Temple is fully enshrinedin a transparent glass enclosure..1/n


with Rudrakshas on both the sides of the entrance This temple has a circular Sanctum Sanctorum which has twelve stepseach representing a sign of zodiac and after that twelve steps we find the supreme deity of this temple Sri Kshetra Paata Bhairava. 2/n


Beneath the Bhairava, in the lower level are installed the Ashta Bhairavas, SapthaRishis in the form of stones, and Saptha Kannis in the form of brass lamps. Thereare a number of little blue and white lights in the ceiling that is shaped like a dome.. 3/n


which give an ethereal atmosphere when switched on. The steps representthe twelve signs of the zodiac and when one steps over them to reach thesanctum sanctorum all the doshas pertaining to the horoscope are cleared onceand for all..4/n


The Sthala Vriksham ”Peepal Tree” which is grown on a pedestal, a trident which is considered as Bhairavi, Pancha Mukha Anjaneya, Prathyankara Devi, Subramanya, Rudra Vinayaga, Vaishnavi Devi, Naga Rudra, Eswara, Vana Durga etc. 5/5

#IncredibleBharat
#DekhoApnaDesh
ALL
Daoyu
Daoyu
@Daoyu15
@franciscodeasis https://t.co/OuQaBRFPu7
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the


chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project

starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".

P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!

https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?
ALL
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Ramsay Rippers \U0001f354
Ramsay Rippers 🍔...
@RamsayRippers
🧵EMA + VWAP STRATEGY

Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.

Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

👇

What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.

Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
- 21
- 50

While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)
STRATEGY
Sam
Sam
@SamKhan999
This day was inevitable. Indian Muslims always lived in La La Land. They bad mouthed real well wishers & slept with the enemy who never considered them as part of them. In Gulf, Indian Muslims were busy with Javed Akhtar & Sonu Nigam. Never interacted with South Asian diaspora

Now when Indian Muslims are thrown to wolves it’s Pakistani & Bangladeshi Muslims with whom they kept distance are the only ones feeling their pain. None of the people who they invited for Eid Milan. Qawali & Mushaira are there for them. Such people invoke wrath upon themselves

Indian Muslims never spoke for Kashmiri Muslims. Distancing from separatist was understandable but we never even bothered to highlight their human rights violation & rapes carried out by forces. We could have sent them humanitarian help we didn’t. Our silence made us complicit.

When Sania Mirza married Shoaib Malik it was something legal. A Muslim married another Muslim. Entire Hindutva media went after her. They launched a witch-hunt for months. No Indian Muslim stood by her. All were silent. Now days come when Muslims are arrested for marrying a Hindu

Indian Muslims particularly the elite downplayed communalism in India by saying it will pass or Hindu majority is good. Fringe are bad. They misguiding others. Muslims were always others. Indians were happy to see Muslims sing & dance & eat their food but never considered as own
INDIA
Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
👇 Thread. New deck getting published this week: "Consumer startups are awesome, and here's what I'm looking to invest in at Andreessen Horowitz." If you want to read it, subscribe to my newsletter here: https://t.co/262t8eh0wf


1/ A lot of new consumer technologies have been introduced to US households in the last 100 years. But it's taken many of them - like the telephone - more than 50 years to get to the majority of the US. Why is that?


2/ We had to literally teach people how to use phone. Which end goes to your mouth, which goes to your ear. Say "hello" when people call. The motivation of consumers to talk to their friends has always been there, but we had to teach the behavior


3/ If you compare phones to the latest technologies, there's been a huge shift. Things are being picked up much faster.


4/ Even while there's been all this innovation recently, physically speaking, we are still the same human beings from 100,000 years ago.
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