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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall 3 years, 6 months ago 493 views

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Overheard in a Newcastle cafe, two very despondent students, clearly not long arrived in the city: “I might as well just go home. What is the point in being here? I told my Mum last night, I just feel so lonely. Wish I’d taken a gap year.” The other nodded, in sad agreement.

More cafe conversations-a woman who has recently gone back to work and is now facing down the barrel of imminent unemployment again with the hospitality shutdown which is prob coming here: “I was so buzzing to get back to work. I can’t believe it’s back. Don’t know what I’ll do.”

A local bar owner who has popped in for a coffee: “up to now we’ve just about been making enough money on Saturday to survive and make it through the rest of the week. Depends what the government does. But we’re on the edge.”

And the cafe owner, been here 19 years: “things had been a bit better but this week trade has fallen off a cliff. I came in yesterday and the day before and I just closed because there was no point. Whatever they announce I’m praying it isn’t for long or they extend furlough.”

This cafe btw is a cracker, when I lived in Newcastle came all the time. If you’re ever in the area (restrictions permitting) @QuayIngredient is where you need to go.

More from Lewis Goodall

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

Trump’s doctor: “This morning, the President is doing very well.”

Conley: “the team and I are extremely pleased with how the President is doing.” Says that Trump’s symptoms are now improving.

Second doctor says that President’s kidney function, heart function are both normal. Says that he’s not on oxygen and in “exceptionally good spirits.” Says that Trump said “it feels I could walk out of this today.” Says he’s walking around the medical unit.

Doctor is repeatedly asked about whether Trump is on oxygen. Says he’s not on oxygen “now” or “today”. Sidesteps question about whether he’s received it up to now.

Doctor says “since Friday morning” Trump hasn’t had a fever

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

More study aids and generous grade boundaries for 2021's exams will be welcomed by many teachers and students. But doesn't address a fundamental problem of the next exam season: equity. Because there's great variation in how different schools have been affected by self-isolation.

Let's take the most recent attendance stats which I still don't think have really registered.

Most recent data- attendance rate across England of 83%

In secondary schools it's 78% (!)

So more than 1 in 5 secondary pupils are off school, largely for Covid related reasons.

But that’s just an average. Some schools’ attendance are at levels where they can’t really function, or certainly provide the quality of education they normally do.

Teachers’ are split between trying to run online lessons and those in schools.

Whole year groups are off.

Some students are in isolation, return to school and within days are in isolation again.

As I’ve reported before, IT provision is still patchy. Lots of reports of kids not doing work at home either because they get of the swing of it or they don’t have the IT resources.

And that’s before we get on to staff isolation, which is also proving a nightmare in many places.

In other words, you have to have everything go right for your education not to be impacted by Covid right now. And that’s affecting some places more than others.

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Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

Charles Walker, Vice Chair of the 1922 Tory backbench committee in the Commons tells TWTW that he thinks the government knew it intended to “cancel” Christmas on Wednesday or Thursday but waited for Parliament to rise to do it. Says many of his colleagues find this “egregious.”

When put to Walker that Matt Hancock said this morning that wasn’t the case, it was the briefing on Friday which prompted the decision, Walker says: “Hmm yeah...well I’d have to disagree with the SoS on that.” So he’s either saying Hancock isn’t being truthful or is misinformed.

Walker: “Surely at some stage a senior government minister has say I’ve offered my resignation to the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister has to say- very early I’ve had to accept this.”

Reminder- Charles Walker is Vice Chair of the Tory backbench committee.

Walker heavily implies it’s Matt Hancock he wants to see resign: “I’m not asking for the government to collapse. I’m asking for a Secretary of State to take some responsibility.”

The Charles Walker interview is extraordinary in what he is inferring. A senior Conservative MP is essentially accusing his govt and ministers of deceit about what they knew about the new strain and when and by implication the timing of the new lockdown.

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

BREAK: Joe Biden is inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States.

The Trump administration is over.

Technically another 9 mins to go for the official handover. But it’s a formality.

Biden: "This is America's day. This is democracy's day. A day of history and hope....Today we triumph not of a candidate but of a cause. The cause of democracy. The people, the will of the people has been heard. And the will of the people has been heeded."

"At this hour my friends, democracy has prevailed."

Biden thanks his predecessors from both parties "from the bottom of my heart."

With, perhaps, the exception of one.

Biden addresses the pandemic and its economic consequences: "Few people in our nation's history have found themselves in a moment as challenging as the one we're in now...but the dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer."

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall

Weird feeling. After 10.5 years and roughly £21,000 of debt- I finally paid off the last instalment of my student loan today.

Next month, for the first time- I’ll receive my full post tax salary, for the first time since I graduated.

Sharing as an example of how the system works in practice. In truth I only seriously started paying off the capital in the last few years, when I started to earn a good salary, paying roughly £400 a month off. I suspect many will never significantly eat into the capital.

That’s especially the case for those those under the new regime, who have over £50k of debt. I was lucky in a) lower fees (3k not 9k) and maintenance grant (not loan) still existed.

Indeed IFS forecasts that 83% of students from PST 2012 reforms won’t fully pay back their loan.

Of course those who don’t pay off their fees, the cost will eventually have to be absorbed by the Treasury. Having 17% pay back all and the rest some will still be cheaper for HMT than no loans at all. But we should recognise the a) odd conceit that we have a system of loans...

...which the vast maj will never pay back and that instead b) that graduates are paying in effect a topped up rate of income tax for many, many years.

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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion

Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)

$\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774$

신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea

What does Gold- Backed mean?
The Chinese Elders have been accumulating gold for hundreds of years. They are gold-rich. Some of their gold was loaned to the Central Banking System so that it could fund the rebuilding of Europe after the many war-torn years from World Wars I and II

BTW they never returned it but used it to start their financial empire to enslave humanity. This is the Central Bank Banking System./2

Maybe this is why one of the conditions to use their gold for the QFS is the demise and full disclosure of the Central Bank banking system before the RV can take place./3

The Elders have caves of hidden gold and are now using it to gold-back the currencies in the QFS for every country in the world. It is important to understand that the QFS and the money it is about to release is all brand-new currency./4

It was designed by the Alliance to fund the new financial system that will reset all Currencies of the world to Gold-Backed currency./5

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Kate Julian
@katejulian

1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi

2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.

4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.

Hemani Bhandari
@HemaniBhandari

Thread

"Main jab mar jaun to meri alag se pehchan likh dena,mere lahu se meri peshani pr Hindustan likh dena(After I die,write my identity differently,with blood,write India on my forehead)”- msg on wall in Brijpuri. It's faded.

A year on,we revisit where #DelhiRiots broke out.

Feb 2020 Vs Feb 2021
While the hustle and bustle of the area has returned in severely hit Shiv Vihar, some cracks in the walls, a black smoke patch on the door, a few burnt utensils and a pile of photographs remind the victims of the days and nights they lived in “terror”.

Khushnaz’s daughter Alfiza was six days old on February 25 when the riots broke out near her house. She recalled pressing her palm against the infant’s mouth to prevent her voice from being heard as she cried.

Shawra Begum’s single-storey residence near Medina Masjid has still not been repaired. Looking at the broken and burnt taps of her washroom, Shawra said, “That time reminds me of death.”

Sitting inside his house near Auliya Masjid, Nizamuddin had tears in his eyes thinking about the time. Over 5,000 men were walking and running amok on the streets destroying everything and everyone, he said.

Somya Lakhani
@somyalakhani

Thread:
A year ago, at this hour exactly I was in Maujpur in northeast Delhi. For days, weeks & months, I -- like several other reporters -- filed multiple stories on the #DelhiRiots. On the violence, the perpetrators, the victims, the burnt homes & shops, the fear.

I remember every minute of Feb 23, 2020 -- from the speeches to smoke billowing from afar. What I can't ever forget is the face of a man who sat alone in front of a shop, his kurta dusty and torn, blood on his forehead, unable to answer who he was & where he wanted to go.

I've his photo, I never posted it anywhere, and I won't either. He was in such shock, and there was no help around. I tried talking to him but he didn't say a word. He was numb.

It'll take me years before I can fully write down what happened that afternoon -- a stampede, stones flying all around me, a colleague who held nu hand & ran, another who lost her slipper for a minute, tear gas, my inhaler, salt.

I sent my mother messages, my hands trembling. At 1 am, I was home -- my head buried inside a pillow between my parents.

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Kab
@Kabamur_Taygeta

#NEIOH

1. Friends Of The Great Planet Earth!

Everything You Seek Is Already Within You! Each Waking Dream Has False Teachings That Say There Is A Special Place 'Out There' In The Skies Where People Go That Follow A Certain Doctrine.

2. And Those Same Teachers Explain There Is A Place Of Torment For Others That Arrived On A Different Part Of The Planet And Were Taught A Different Doctrine.

There Is ONE Creator That Has Been Named By Many. It Would Be Loving To Honor And Respect Another's Beliefs,

3. As In Truth, Many Have Lived In Multiple Cultures With Many Beliefs That Now Are Judged! Incarnating Over And Over Is The Joy Of The Soul Experiencing Life! The Soul Fully Understands This Is A Human Experience.

4. Wouldn't It Be Much More Relaxing And Fun To Allow Others Their Freedom, Just As You Want Yours? Yes Indeed! Relax And Flow!

Since The Very Beginning Of Your Self-Awareness As An Incarnate Being, You Have Probed Your World For Clues To The Meaning Of Your Existence.

5. You Have Looked In Every Conceivable Crevice And Pondered The Vastness Of The Infinite Cosmos. You Have Scrutinized The Spiritual Wisdom That Was Forthcoming From Those Who Believed Themselves To Be Knowledgeable About Such Matters.

Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

LACHIT BORPHUKAN : AN UNSUNG WARRIOR OF THE AHOM KINGDOM & THE GREAT BATTLE OF SARAIGHAT

Originally named as Lachit Deca, Lachit Borphukan, the fierce and invincible Ahom Commander, was born during the early 17th century at Betioni in the Golaghat district of modern Assam.

His father, Momai Tamuli Borbarua was the ‘Governor’ of the kingdom and also ‘Commander-in-Chief’ of Ahom army under King Pratap Singha during his reign starting from 1603 to 1639. Lachit received military training from an early age and joined the Ahom King Jayadhvaj Singha...

...(1648-1663) as a scarf-bearer. The post ‘scarf-bearer’ or ‘Soladhara Barua’ is considered as a part of the incumbent king’s personal staff. Owing to his military training Lechit was appointed "Ghora Barua", Supdt. of the Royal horses. When Chakradhwaj Singha became king..

..of Ahom dynasty in 1663,he appointed him Suptd. of The Royal Guards &finally he was appointed as Borphukan by the king.Then onwards,he was known as Lachit Borphukan.Borphukan used to be top councillor in Ahom Kingdom. This position was embedded with executive & judicial powers.

Assam was facing incessant Islamic invasion since Jan1662, when Mughal General Mir Jumla II attacked Ahom capital Gargaon. He never defeated Ahom king Jayadhwaja Singha as king retreated to hill &continued Guerrilla warfare.Prolonged fight &prospect of stalemate disturbed Jumla.

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$Michael T Spooky \U0001f383$

Michael T Spooky 🎃...
@mtsw

(THREAD)

1. There's been a lot of news lately about people in the Autonomous Vehicle industry realizing the problem they're trying to solve is much trickier than they initially hoped.

I think there’s a good analogy in a similar technology: self-checkouts.

2. Self-checkouts have been around a while. Companies have been working on them since 1984, and they’ve been in stores around the country for nearly two decades. As you well know if you’ve used one, they also still kinda suck.

3. This is not for a lack of financial incentives! A company that could figure the technology out would be able to replace billions a year in labor. Even a marginal improvement on the tech would be incredibly valuable as current systems feature staggering losses to shoplifters

4. It’s not as if “scanning items at a checkout” is an especially daunting task. It’s considered unskilled labor. Teenagers do it.

5. Turns out that making an automated system that’s 95% as good as a human is relatively easy and one that’s 100% as good as a human is very hard. I think it’s becoming clear that autonomous vehicles are going to turn out like this

Pran Katariya
@KatariyaPran

The Straddle is my favorite trade these days. But more often than not, one needs to adjust to make a good return from it. There are many ways to do this depending on your view, psychology and imagination. Will discuss a few that I use

The Straddle is a delta neutral strategy and it is important to keep deltas in check during the course of the Trade and not let them run away from you. Of course Volatility is the elephant in the room- but not going there as that will require a separate discussion

The first and most common method is to go 'inverted.' That is to say to shift the untested side to generate additional Premium and increase the runway to Breakeven. So if you start with a Straddle at 700 and price goes to 740, you can move the PE up to say 720.

How much should you move the untested side? While again this is a matter of skill, experience and artistry, the rule of thumb is to cut deltas by half. Remember, prices will move and you have to allow sufficient room for them to fluctuate

The second method is to shift the entire Straddle in the direction of the move. So if you have a 700 Straddle and Price goes to 740, you can shift the Straddle to 720. If you time this right, it can generally be done at virtually no cost or minimal cost.

Patrick Byrne
@PatrickByrne

READ AND RETWEET AS THOUGH THE LIFE OF YOUR NATION DEPENDS ON IT. WHICH IT DOES. Citizens, I am going to add to the picture with more information. I am not going to let this pass while keeping information to myself. I am going to walk you through 2 narratives.

A printing shop in Michigan prints ballots for Delaware County, Pennsylvania and as Lancashire County, Pennsylvania (this is normal). But along with the ballots it prints on contract and delivers to those counties, it prints some ballots that get diverted to Bethpage, New York.

There, a boiler room of folks fill in "Biden" (often without even voting downballot). The ballots (which are forensically legitimate, given that they come from the same print shop as the good ballots, ) then get trucked into Pennsylvania and mailed. Hundreds of thousands.

We have all of that documented. Texts, statements, affidavits, everything.

We also know that this same ballot printing company (and other firms in the same family) also print for Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.