First they came for the 🐟

And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust

Then they came for the 🐖 farmers and 🐷 exports

And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
Next they came for the 🦪 exporters

And there the Minister wrote a letter saying 🇪🇺 was wrong, when his officials knew 🇪🇺 was right
Then the 🧪 industries worried about the 💷 of making a new database to replace REACH

They're still waiting
The 🚛🚚 operators fear that a load of vehicles are returning to 🇪🇺 empty, and volumes are down

We do not recognise the numbers, the 🇬🇧 Government says
This all hit the exporters of seed 🥔 so badly

They cannot even send the potatoes to Northern Ireland
🧀 producers and 👟 stores had problems in their supply chains

So they set up operations in 🇪🇺 countries, something 🇬🇧 Department for International Trade acknowledged was a good idea
🇮🇪 businesses feared the 📑 to get anything on a ⛴ at a 🇬🇧 port

So they put on half a dozen 🇮🇪-🇫🇷 ⛴ routes to avoid 🇬🇧 altogether
A mass of share trade has moved from 🇬🇧 to 🇳🇱

And so the boss of the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏦 "warns" 🇪🇺 they are being unfair, but has no solution
1.3 million 🇪🇺 citizens have 🇬🇧➡️ in the past 12 months

No one knows who will do the jobs these people did once the economy recovers somewhat post-COVID
⏰ WAKE UP UK! ⏰

However you look at it, this makes *no sense*

It's not if you're pro-Brexit or not. It's about having a sensible view of the economic future of the country. Where is it?

/ends
Continued...

And they forgot the 🎸🎤🎶 and their 🚛🔊 meaning they could not tour 🇪🇺 any more

But despite it being a major industry for 🇬🇧, the Government has not sought to solve the problem
And it was not just 🐖 but 🐷🍬 as well

Marks & Spencer might have to adjust its supply chain for Percy Pig sweets, and meanwhile its 🇫🇷 stores are running low on 🥪 too

More from Jon Worth

To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25

If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25

The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25

*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock -
https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.

Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.

4/25

The most obvious stumbling block is...

🥁🥁🥁

... the European Parliament!

Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.

Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this

More from Finance

I'm lucky to attain financial freedom before 30.

I credit Fintwit for my learnings.

Here's 10 key concepts every investor must know:

1. $$ needed to retire
2. Researching a business
3. Reading annual reports
4. Reading earnings calls
5. Criteria of a multi bagger

(Read on...)

6. Holding a multi bagger
7. Economic moats
8. When to buy a stock
9. Earnings vs cashflow
10. Traits of quality companies

Here's my 10 favourite threads on these concepts:

1. How much $$ do you need to retire

Before you start, you must know the end game.

To meet your retirement goals...

How much $$ do you need in your portfolio?

10-K Diver does a good job explaining what's a safe withdrawl rate.

Hint: It's NOT


2. Research a business

Your investment returns are a lagging indicator.

Instead, your research skills are the leading predictor of your results.

Conclusion?

To be a good investor, you must be a great business researcher.

Start with


3. Reading annual reports

This is the bread and butter of a good business analyst.

You cannot just listen to opinions from others.

You must learn to deep dive a business and make your own judgments.

Start with the 10k.

Ming Zhao explains it

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