First they came for the 🐟

And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust

OK, so it's a fortnight away - the "Digital Party Conference" of the CDU to decide who the next party leader will be

And whoever wins this is going to have a good chance of being Chancellor, succeeding Merkel after the election in September this year

There are three main candidates in the running - all middle aged men from Nordrhein Westfalen
- Friedrich Merz
- Armin Laschet
- Norbert Röttgen

So who's going to win?

For ages it looked like Laschet was the clear front runner. Prime Minister of Nordrhein Westfalen (NRW), and with a kind of folksy-beergarten manner, it looked good for him.

But then came COVID, and in the first wave it looked like NRW was pushing to open up too early, and questions started to be raised as to whether he would be up to the job...

Laschet's star is falling

The candidate profiting is Merz. The comeback kid at 65 years of age would take the CDU more to the right - which seems to be what a slew of the 1001 delegates (esp those from the states of eastern Germany) want. That despite the pragmatic line of Merkel being +popular than ever.

"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"

It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...

So let's dig a

The poll was done by @SavantaComRes and the PDF of the results is here:

P. 57
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?

+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%

P. 59

I don't actually know what these questions mean

"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?

"The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy" What is political alignment? And does CFSP work?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.

OK then.

So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.

This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.

1/20

At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches

That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail

2/20

Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing

Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future

3/20

1001 Delegates - these were the results

Round 1 🗳
Merz 385
Laschet 380
Röttgen 224

Round 2 🗳
Laschet 521
Merz 466

About 1/3 of Röttgen's vote went to Merz, 2/3 to Laschet

4/20

It's important to emphasise how absolutely *average* Laschet is in the CDU. If you were to imagine your archetypal CDU politician it would be him. Not to edgy, not too sharp, not too radical, not too conservative, not too dashing... it would be him

5/20

A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

1/15

The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

2/15

As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

3/15

From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

4/15

Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

5/15

NESARA is the most ground breaking reformation to sweep not only the United States of America but the whole planet (thus GESARA) in its entire history. The act does away with the Federal Reserve Bank, the IRS, the shadow government, and much more.

I devoured 50 years of Warren Buffett shareholder letters.

The result?

12 timeless principles from the greatest investor in the world.

Here are the golden nuggets🧵

The Orangutan Effect

"If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will exit thinking more clearly yourself."

Teaching others actually teaches yourself.

2022

The Faulty Premise Framework

“A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse - not a remarkable mathematician.”

Beware your comparison set.

Are you judging crappy relative performance or absolute results?

1985

Pick the Right Business Boat

The business boat you get into is more important than how effectively you row.

“When a brilliant management team tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, the reputation of the business usually stays intact.”

1985

A Rising Tide Doesn't Lift All Bonuses

"Good performance should be rewarded whether Berkshire stock rises or falls.
Average performance should earn no special rewards even if our stock soars."

Judge for individual performance or risk free riding on group success.

1986

🧵: The 10 Metrics for SaaS Startups (an Operator's Guide)

Focusing on the wrong things can kill your startup.

Based on founding and scaling @edenworkplace, here are the metrics that matter most:

Metric 1: ARR (Annualized Recurring Revenue)

You will need to know this number each day, so you'll focus on Contracted ARR in your CRM tool (as opposed to accounting ARR).

Big ARR milestones are $100K (Signal), $1 million (PMF), $10 million (Growth), $100 million (IPO Scale)

Metric 2: ARR Growth

Once you get past the Signal stage, your ARR growth is the primary determinant of future success (and valuation).

Strong annual growth rate from Signal to PMF is 4x+ and from PMF to Growth is 2.5x+.

@edenofficemagic grew 11x between Signal and PMF stages.

Metric 3: ACV (Average Customer Value)

ACV often starts low for a SaaS company (as your product is not featureful enough for large enterprises) and grows as the company moves upmarket.

ACV is calculated by taking total revenue and dividing it by your number of customer logos.

Metric 4: ACV Growth

Most SaaS companies will make ACV growth a focus.

It is fair to increase revenue per customer as you add more value to users in new features, integrations, and products.

@edenofficemagic grew ACV 2.3x last year, mostly through cross-selling new products.