1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
OK, it can be avoided no more.
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
3/25
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
🥁🥁🥁
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this year.
https://t.co/m2GvroyskE
5/25
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
But what about 2️⃣ - that there even is a text to ratify?
Here is where it gets interesting.
6/25
But the EP says it won't be bounced into doing that. It takes scrutiny seriously.
7/25
PROVISIONAL APPLICATION of the Treaty is an option - i.e. meaning that the approval of the European Parliament would come after 1 January. The Council (i.e. the Member States) can decide whether to take that route.
https://t.co/zBoRrlzG7V
8/25
15/ It's understood that the Council legal service intervened this morning to say that the Lisbon Treaty makes it clear that the sole right of deciding whether or not to provisionally apply a treaty belongs to the Council (ie member states) at the moment of signature.
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) December 14, 2020
The EP might, after some howling, do it, but its MEPs are not happy.
https://t.co/Z0eJ6OtwWr
9/25
Irresponsible and bitter. How can citizens and businesses 18 days before end of the transition period be subjected to this uncertainty?Furthermore secret negotiations far from any democratic control.Serious ratification is becoming increasingly impossible.Unworthy game #BREXIT https://t.co/TVsPZuSDp0
— Bernd Lange (@berndlange) December 13, 2020
This aspect has been a bit murky - it looks like Member States have OKed the idea a Deal would be an EU-only agreement, not a Mixed Agreement needing 27+ national ratifications.
https://t.co/vLfoQshDbn
10/25
NEW: am told European Union is looking into way of fast-tracking any Brexit deal. Senior sources say it's now very likely to be an "EU-only" rather than "mixed" deal.
— Adam Parsons (@adamparsons) November 16, 2020
Which, crucially, would mean it would NOT need ratification by all the member state parliaments
Count yourself lucky, 🇬🇧, that Wallonia has no coastline!
https://t.co/sMKJqK8tOM
Basically: PROVISIONAL APPLICATION is a headache.
11/25
PROVISIONAL APPLICATION only works if you have a text ready to ratify. And currently we do not... and we know that the Deal will be 600+ pages long.
12/25
If there is no agreement by end of this week, perhaps start of next week at the *very latest*, forget this route as well.
13/25
Steve Peers has mused whether RETROACTIVE APPLICATION could work - essentially a Deal after 1 Jan, but the costs incurred (e.g. tariffs) in the interim reimbursed.
https://t.co/u8V5fq4ihy
14/25
Retroactive application is a different issue though.
— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) December 14, 2020
15/25
Confused yet?
Or, perhaps more importantly, do you think Boris Johnson understands this?
16/25
But...
🥁🥁🥁
... trade nerds to the rescue!
17/25
https://t.co/VU2lPCkK5o
18/25
I hate to be that guy, but what if, following signature, tariff-free trade continued on January 1st prior to ratification as an interim measure justified on the basis of ... GATT Article XXIV 5(c).
— Sam Lowe (@SamuelMarcLowe) December 14, 2020
*flees* https://t.co/UgDMEgEfbZ
https://t.co/V12xdXbnH8
But both sides would still have to want to do it...
19/25
Right - deal done; just not gone through internal EU-pre council sign off process
— Sam Lowe (@SamuelMarcLowe) December 14, 2020
They cover 🚛🛫🛬 & 🎣
https://t.co/5LUBrWkAds
20/25
Detail scarce on this so far
https://t.co/H4N4eNTKLs
21/25
So a new treaty between the EU-UK allowing for some sort of extension of current arrangements will be drawn up until the deal is ratified by the parliament.
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
FIRST, time still matters - getting an agreement ASAP would keep the PROVISIONAL APPLICATION route open. Waiting until 🌲 to agree closes that route.
22/25
More from Jon Worth
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector
A short 🧵
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
A short 🧵
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
More from Brexit
1/ A challenge in parsing Brexit news is that businesses are facing overlapping types of challenges that can be difficult to separate.
The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?
2/ To put those another way:
"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"
The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.
3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).
That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.
4/ Examples include:
1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;
2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;
3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.
5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.
There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.
The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?
#Brexit & #fishing: True to their word, it looks like British #seafood exporters are taking their concerns around #trade to the streets of London #Brexality pic.twitter.com/CIqmDQR69d
— Bryce Stewart (@BD_Stew) January 18, 2021
2/ To put those another way:
"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"
The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.
3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).
That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.
4/ Examples include:
1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;
2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;
3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.
5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.
There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.
Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26
— Daniel Lambert (Wines). \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0077\U000e006c\U000e0073\U000e007f\U0001f347\U0001f942 (@DanielLambert29) January 16, 2021
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BREAKING: @CommonsCMS @DamianCollins just released previously sealed #Six4Three @Facebook documents:
Some random interesting tidbits:
1) Zuck approves shutting down platform API access for Twitter's when Vine is released #competition
2) Facebook engineered ways to access user's call history w/o alerting users:
Team considered access to call history considered 'high PR risk' but 'growth team will charge ahead'. @Facebook created upgrade path to access data w/o subjecting users to Android permissions dialogue.
3) The above also confirms @kashhill and other's suspicion that call history was used to improve PYMK (People You May Know) suggestions and newsfeed rankings.
4) Docs also shed more light into @dseetharaman's story on @Facebook monitoring users' @Onavo VPN activity to determine what competitors to mimic or acquire in 2013.
https://t.co/PwiRIL3v9x
Some random interesting tidbits:
1) Zuck approves shutting down platform API access for Twitter's when Vine is released #competition
2) Facebook engineered ways to access user's call history w/o alerting users:
Team considered access to call history considered 'high PR risk' but 'growth team will charge ahead'. @Facebook created upgrade path to access data w/o subjecting users to Android permissions dialogue.
3) The above also confirms @kashhill and other's suspicion that call history was used to improve PYMK (People You May Know) suggestions and newsfeed rankings.
4) Docs also shed more light into @dseetharaman's story on @Facebook monitoring users' @Onavo VPN activity to determine what competitors to mimic or acquire in 2013.
https://t.co/PwiRIL3v9x
So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018
The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.
This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.
The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."
This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.
