BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @ThomassRichards

OK then.

So the new CDU Party Leader #CDUvorsitz is known - it's Armin Laschet.

This 🧵 will explain why he won, explain what he means, and outline what happens next.

1/20

 At the CDU's party congress today, the three candidates - Laschet, Friedrich Merz & Norbert Röttgen - gave 15 min speeches

That was the first signal of what was to come... Today we saw the very best of Laschet - playing the reliable, careful person, not heavy on detail

2/20
Merz by contrast gave an ill focused speech, and did not make a single reference to Merkel or AKK, the outgoing party leader. He seems to have learned nothing

Röttgen, long the outsider, gave a speech with a lot more detail - especially on green issues and the future

3/20
1001 Delegates - these were the results

Round 1 🗳
Merz 385
Laschet 380
Röttgen 224

Round 2 🗳
Laschet 521
Merz 466

About 1/3 of Röttgen's vote went to Merz, 2/3 to Laschet

4/20
It's important to emphasise how absolutely *average* Laschet is in the CDU. If you were to imagine your archetypal CDU politician it would be him. Not to edgy, not too sharp, not too radical, not too conservative, not too dashing... it would be him

5/20
The course Laschet will pursue will be continuity-Merkel, but without Merkel's *skill* to know when to triangulate or wilfully not take clear positions

He'll not take clear positions because he does not have any

But with his speech today: he's well advised and not stupid

6/20
A word about the futures of the defeated candidates...

Merz's comparatively strong showing underlines there is a good chunk of the CDU more conservative than centrist, and they're not going away. Laschet is going to have to find some way to keep them onside

7/20
The way Röttgen carefully built his campaign, and the themes he emphasised throughout, won him more support than was expected at the start. I'm told there's animosity between him and Laschet, but if that's overcome he ought to be a future Foreign Minister

8/20
But now what for Laschet?

He's still Prime Minister of Nordrhein-Westfalen, and will stay in that role at least a while longer

His first party political test is the Land elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz 14 March

9/20
How does the CDU do in those elections?

At the moment in looks like the Greens will still win BaWü, but the CDU might be the largest party in RLP - more because the SPD are suffering than because of any strength of the CDU

10/20
More widely, how is the CDU going to do in the national polls? 35% is the sort of baseline for the party - were the numbers to nosedive below that, Laschet has a problem. Stick with those numbers and he is going to be fine

11/20
Why does this matter?

The CDU Party Leader does not necessarily become the CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate for the Bundestag election scheduled for 26 Sept - that person can come from the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the CSU

12/20
And the CSU leader, Markus Söder, might be just the person to step up should it look like Laschet is struggling...

A decision on who the candidate will be is expected *after* the BaWü and RLP elections - in April probably

13/20
To put it bluntly: if by April the CDU looks to still be in good health, Laschet will likely be the Chancellor Candidate

If it's not, the CDU might realise hauling Söder from Munich would be a better call. Söder has a higher national standing than Laschet does just now

14/20
If Laschet were to suffer, *and* Söder does not make the step from Bavaria to the federal level, then current health minister Jens Spahn could step in instead - but this is an outside chance in my view

15/20
Some people asked me if Merz could be Chancellor Candidate still - even though he narrowly lost to Laschet - but I think this is impossible

Merz has higher support among the CDU rank and file than among MdBs and the leadership - they'd not take Merz for the top job

16/20
That leaves us then with 3 possible Chancellor Candidates for CDU-CSU - Laschet, Söder and Spahn

17/20
What about the election and possible coalitions?

Laschet is in a CDU-FDP coalition in Nordrhein-Westfalen, and a coalition with the FDP would not bother Söder or Spahn either, but CDU-CSU + FDP is unlikely to be enough for a majority...

18/20
A CDU-CSU + Green coalition is more likely route, and while it'd not be a walk in the park for the Greens to work with any of the 3 likely candidates (Laschet is the son of a coal miner for example!) it'd not be impossible either

Merz is out, so the path to ⚫️🟢 is open

19/xx
There's a long way to go in the process to find Merkel's successor yet, but one thing is clear after today: there is not going to be a sharp turn to the right, because Friedrich Merz is not going to be the next Chancellor

20/20

More from Jon Worth

Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
HEALTH
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
A quick thread about night trains

The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...

This slide summarises what they'd agreed


Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.

I personally will be very happy to take these trains.

But so much for the good news.

Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX

Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see

That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)

In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day

In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.

All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
NIGHT TRAINS
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Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"

It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...

So let's dig a

The poll was done by @SavantaComRes and the PDF of the results is here:

P. 57
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?

+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%

P. 59

I don't actually know what these questions mean

"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?


"The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy" What is political alignment? And does CFSP work?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.
POLITICS
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25

If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25

The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25

*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.

Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.

4/25

The most obvious stumbling block is...

🥁🥁🥁

... the European Parliament!

Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.

Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
BREXIT
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, so it's a fortnight away - the "Digital Party Conference" of the CDU to decide who the next party leader will be

And whoever wins this is going to have a good chance of being Chancellor, succeeding Merkel after the election in September this year

There are three main candidates in the running - all middle aged men from Nordrhein Westfalen
- Friedrich Merz
- Armin Laschet
- Norbert Röttgen

So who's going to win?

For ages it looked like Laschet was the clear front runner. Prime Minister of Nordrhein Westfalen (NRW), and with a kind of folksy-beergarten manner, it looked good for him.

But then came COVID, and in the first wave it looked like NRW was pushing to open up too early, and questions started to be raised as to whether he would be up to the job...

Laschet's star is falling

The candidate profiting is Merz. The comeback kid at 65 years of age would take the CDU more to the right - which seems to be what a slew of the 1001 delegates (esp those from the states of eastern Germany) want. That despite the pragmatic line of Merkel being +popular than ever.
POLITICS

More from Government

Cleveland Documenters
Cleveland Documenters
@cledocumenters
Last week, @CleCityCouncil started reviewing Mayor Frank Jackson’s proposed city budget for 2021. There was robust discussion, and Documenters were there to cover it. Here’s a thread of what we learned last week about the #CLEBudget

First, it helps to know where we are in the budget process. From today through Feb. 24, the council will meet about the General Fund budget. The council will then agree on a budget with their changes (if any); 15 days after doing so, they can vote to make the budget official.


In other words, there’s still time to use your voice! The #refundcleveland tool can help. Create the #CLEBudget you want and send it to your council member. Click “Change the Budget” on the homepage and follow the on-screen instructions from there.

Want to know the budget basics? Our #CLEBudget primer details the timeline, different types of budgets and the funds involved, and defines budget-related terms. It can be a helpful guide during City Council’s discussions.

And don’t forget: all these meetings are livestreamed on City Council’s YouTube channel. They’re slated to start at 9 a.m. every business day from today through the 24th. You can also follow along with #CLEDocumenters live-tweet threads and
GOVERNMENT
Louisette Lanteigne \U0001f30e\u270c\ufe0f\u2696\ufe0f\u2665\ufe0f
Louisette Lanteigne 🌎✌...
@lulex
Canada is failing to act on Climate Change. @wef @WorldBank @IMFNews @IPCC_CH @UNDPGAIN @AntiCorruptIntl @Pontifex @JustinWelby @OCCRP @StopCorpAbuse @TaxJusticeNet @FairTaxCanada @ecojustice_ca @WCELaw @CanEnvLawAssn @envirodefence @IBA_Canada #cdnpoli


Covid recovery money is going to the oligarchy.

Ottawa and the provinces have put very little on the table to help clean-tech companies directly during Covid 19 while targeting fossil-fuel producers with more than $16 billion in aid.

Coast to coast people have demanded treaties be honored. We demanded climate action, divestment and land back but Canada is not listening. This video shows 10 years of rallies in Waterloo Ontario. City & regional council declared a climate emergency. 🚨

The Bank of China (BOC), SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity were recipients of taxpayer-funded the Covid 19 Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS)
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Advertisement
HStvNews
HStvNews
@HStvNews
#Justin A day before the @MyMDC_T EOC, the party Treasurer General says he is unable to fund travel costs for delegates to congress because the money was allegedly stolen. We share contents of the letter from #ChiefNdlovu


“My office has been inundated with calls from concerned EOC delegates who by now should have received their Provincial transport allocation.
It has come to my attention that some of our members may not be able to travel to the EOC due to lack of funding.”


Equally I have received allegations that the Treasury is refusing to make payments for EOC, nothing could be further from the truth. I would like to take this opportunity as your Deputy Treasurer to inform you that as treasury we are not able to pay due to the fact that...


that funds were withdrawn from the party account on the 18th December 2020, we are still pursuing and trying to get some Standing Committee members who were involved in the unapproved transfer to return the money to the Party.
I was left a bit shocked to learn that the SG expects


Treasury to release money when he is the one who transferred all the money out of the account without my explicit approval. Perhaps the SG must inform members where the money is. I certainly do not have any knowledge of who he sent the money to or what has happened to those funds
GOVERNMENT
Phil Burg \U0001f380
Phil Burg 🎀
@phil_sec_mel
Talking with Georgie about the horrible crime committed against Brittany Higgins.

I hope Brittany finds some justice, somehow.

Here's the thing: nothing that matters will change.

A thread:

Two side notes:
* Content warning for trauma and sexual assault
* I initially drafted this and was going to delete it because it's too cynical and very bleak, but it's also the truth and Georgie asked me to be brave and post it.

A Royal Commission has changed nothing.
Paris Street's revelation about St Kevin's changed nothing.
Grace Tame's bravery has changed nothing.
The Pell case has changed nothing.
The Wilson case has changed nothing.
The Redress Scheme has changed nothing.

Georgie burning two careers to jail a serial child rapist has changed nothing.
The National Apology has changed nothing.
The hundreds, if not thousands, of people who report sexual assaults each year have changed nothing.

Because the rules don't apply to the people at the top.

If you're at the top, it doesn't really matter if you're a politician, a political staffer, a journalist, a senior police officer, an ADF officer, a bishop, a business tycoon, or anything else.
If you're in the club, you're in the club.
GOVERNMENT
Ben Wikler
Ben Wikler
@benwikler
Today, if Johnson bothers to show up for the impeachment trial, he’ll hear a flimsy defense of the indefensible. Then he faces an existential, character-defining choice: Country and Constitution, or party and personal power. We have a guess. But first, let’s review some clues.

Just a couple of days before the impeachment trial began, Ron Johnson said that there was “no reason” to hold the trial—and that barring Trump from ever holding federal public office again would “pre-emptively” disenfranchise people.

Ron Johnson knows something about disenfranchisement. In fact, he’s a big fan of it. He sought to disenfranchise millions of voters who chose Biden, spreading lies and fueling the fire of the January 6th insurrection.

He went on Fox News to claim there was voter fraud, that “millions of Americans have suspicions,” and made accusations about the validity of absentee

Johnson went on in that same interview to explicitly call for Congress to “delay accepting a particular state’s electors.” He announced that he was going to vote against accepting Arizona’s electors, feeding the fury of the Jan 6th insurrectionists.
GOVERNMENT

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Hey, for people interested in this stuff, here's a thread about a change we made to running our facebook account:

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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
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• Positional Strangles
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Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in


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• Kept rolling up profitable leg
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• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
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