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Ahh fuckit part of my @threadapalooza thread had a clear subtopic and wanted to be its own thread.

Here's the thread about "membranes" as a metaphor for groups of people.


15a/ Membranes. Monists go on about how everything is one, which is true in a sense but also have you noticed that some things are inside and some things are outside? The role of skin, or the walls of a house, or a windshield on a car, is it keeps inside in & outside out.

15b/ Membranes can be applied to groups, and we can talk about a few different kinds of membranes that you might see around a particular group of people:
- closed membrane
- closed web
- semipermeable membrane
- open network

15c/ Closed Membrane: eg a company, family or country. Maybe a way to join it, but you need an active & explicit invitation by the members, whether that’s a job application or a marriage or an immigration process. Lots of intentional community houses are also like this.

15d/ Closed Web: consider a friend group. You don't exactly need an invitation from everyone in the group to join, but you do need to make friends with *someone* in the group. Polycules (except polyfidelity) work similarly, usually.
As bloody as the world wars were, they weren’t particularly bad by historical standards. The 17th century was uniquely bad for 2nd millennium AD, with Little Ice Age & glut of specie leading to state collapses & population decline across Eurasia.

Falls of Rome & Tang in 1st millennium were worse, but at least they were recorded. Records of the even worse Bronze Age Collapse around 1200 BC barely survived for some areas, & for other regions all we have are archaeological indications that they regressed to the stone age.


Further back in the 3rd millennium BC, an even worse series of catastrophes occurred - the Indo-European invasions - ending the Megalith Builder Civilization with their urban settlements & leaving much of Europe depopulated for 600 years.


By the time of their destruction the Megalith Builders themselves had been in a centuries long decline from their Golden Age in late 5th & early 4th millennium. Their great realms had likely disintegrated around 3500 BC into smaller chiefdoms engaging in endemic warfare.


The Megalith Builders themselves were the result of WHG chieftains overthrowing the decadent EEF chiefs like those of the Linear Ceramics around 4400 BC & subjugating an 1800 year old neolithic civilization. Possibly related to spread of copper-working.
The anatomy of a scenario...

A š˜š—µš—æš—²š—®š—± on how mitigation works, why we probably need some level of carbon capture & storage (CCS) & carbon dioxide removal (CDR) - just not as much as in scenarios.

Based on my presentation ↦ https://t.co/j5uLxUi0xF


2. We start with a baseline or reference scenario, that assumes no or limited mitigation. If we want to stay "well below 2°C" we need to get rid of the dark grey & be net-zero!

We can argue about the baseline, but for the purposes here, it doesn't matter
https://t.co/C0dAdj65tl


3. The heavy lifting is done by conventional mitigation: behavioural change, energy efficiency, fuel switching (fossils to non-fossils), changed transport, dematerialisation, etc, etc...

But, scenarios suggest this is not enough to get rid of all greenhouse gases.


4. In some sectors, particularly some industrial sectors, perhaps the cheapest or only way to mitigate is with carbon capture & storage (CCS), eg, cement, steel, chemicals, etc

This is one reason we need CCS...


5. We can't forget about non-COā‚‚ emissions. We can probably get most non-COā‚‚ out of industry, but what about agriculture? Even if we change diet, reduce food waste, etc, we may not be able to eliminate CHā‚„ or Nā‚‚O from agriculture.

Some COā‚‚ & non-COā‚‚ remains (dark grey)...
1/18 Further thread on Air Policing in peacetime and implications for Irish foreign policy: there are so many different options available for air policing on the market that to go into all of them is unrealistic and ends up in a 'top trumps' style contest. @BerryCathal @donlav


2/18 That’s before you get to the whole argument about twin engine vs single engine safety overwater argument. For now, it’s enough to put forward the options in broad outline.

Option 1: Surface-to-Air missiles only

This option is included because there’s always someone...

3/18 ...who will say ā€˜just get missiles’, because they think that this will be somehow cheaper. Modern long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, however, are not significantly less expensive than fighter jets. They also have an issue in how many times you can use them.

4/18 They have an even bigger issue in that your solution to what may only be an airliner with a broken transponder is to blow it out of the sky.
@ConorHogarty @mupper2 @kevpipps

5/18 While there are many good reasons why the @defenceforces should upgrade its SAM capability, these are largely related to the blended warfare now being rolled out globally with the increasing use of basic drones and larger unmanned aerial systems. @conormlally @RuthMCasey
The solution to this problem is to figure out credible reasons to justify the number of indian military personnel, and the expenses of maintaining this relationship. Once you do that, reveal the details, and they lose leverage to push through this issue. /1


And that means owning up to why Indian military assistance is needed. This requires large national conversation about the threat of Islamic extremists in the Maldives, explain the dangers and the opportunity cost of an attack etc. /2

People will except we'll reasoned decision making. And the public already has a frame of reference to indian military assistance from November 3rd 1988. So none of this is new or a surprise. /3

What is being weaponised is this imagined spectre of loss of autonomy for the country by collaborating with indian military on national security issues. This is an easy problem to solve. /4

The solution is merely laying out how national autonomy is maintained in such a national security collaboration. It's not like the Maldives can defend itself from any foreign military invasion anyways. /5