We still have 10 million fewer jobs than we did in February. Clawing the rest back at +245k per month will take basically forever. If this is the second half of the recovery, it's going to be grim
Payrolls in November rose a mere +245k. That's the sort of number you might see in a "normal" month, and definitely not what you're hoping for in the snapback from a covid-induced shutdown.
THE RECOVERY IS STALLING.
We still have 10 million fewer jobs than we did in February. Clawing the rest back at +245k per month will take basically forever. If this is the second half of the recovery, it's going to be grim
The virus is back, which hobbles the service sector, and stimulus has basically petered out, leaving the economy with little help. It doesn't have to be this way.
- State governments cut -243k jobs in March-May, and now an additional 134k since September.
- Local governments cut -1255k jobs March-May, and -187k since Sept.
And more cuts are ahead.
https://t.co/4RHutW5Q4E
Put another way: I don\u2019t think we should interpret jobs numbers or other economic data now the way we did in the 08-10 recession and recovery. Jobs (at least some jobs) going up when COVID is out of control is a failure of public health policy, not a success of economic policy.
— Dan Hirschman (@asociologist) December 4, 2020
The first act was firms re-opening and recalling furloughed workers.
The second act is harder: Millions lost their jobs permanently & there aren't many new opportunities opening up for them.
The second act is a grim slog.
https://t.co/tLb6uYhe9f
The unemployment rate fell from 6.9% to 6.7% in November. BUT... labor force participation fell so the employment rate fell.
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) December 4, 2020
My measure of the "realistic" unemployment rate actually rose.
And the "full recall" unemployment rate rose.
Blog coming, a little on this now. pic.twitter.com/SbgA9VQorB
As people lose contact with the labor market, they lose connections, skills, and hope.
How many job reports like this will it take before the people arguing there is a trade off between health and the economy admit that getting control of the virus is critical for fixing the economy?
— Austan Goolsbee (@Austan_Goolsbee) December 4, 2020
[*Narrator: he already knew the answer to this question*]