November Jobs Report Thread
There is both good news and bad news buried in the report.
Most often, too much attention is paid to the headline month on month numbers.
1)
As @R_Perli highlighted, if the LFPR does not increase back to pre-COVID levels, we're going to struggle with weaker trend potential growth.
https://t.co/zw7fCZ2gfY
The worst part of the employment report is the stall in the labor force participation rate (-0.2% today and about 2% lower than pre-#COVID19).
— Roberto Perli (@R_Perli) December 4, 2020
The longer participation stays depressed, the harder it will be to bring those workers back, and the lower potential growth will be. pic.twitter.com/7u966oxBME
This is a structural issue and not totally related to demographics either.
https://t.co/Lxn4g7VyLh
The first year after a recession the snap back is pretty strong vs the decline. Macro tourists get excited and confuse it with a new paradigm. It\u2019s not. After the first year the economy changes gears and settles into its structural growth trend, people confuse that shift too
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) December 4, 2020
We have a growth upturn at the moment so we can ignore the LT trend, but only temporarily.
End.
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