BC CHINA
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

 2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...
3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...
4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.
5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...
6/9

very exciting and high tech, and might even help a little, as will lifting the retirement age, but the former is likely to have little effect on the overall economy or on the underlying imbalances, and the latter mostly catches China up to other urban economies.
7/9

What is more, the idea that getting seniors jobs will boost consumption and help rebalance the economy is, of course, not true. While it might raise per capita GDP (slightly), it only increases consumption indirectly, by increasing production more. Without seriously...
8/9

reforming the way income is distributed, this would only make the imbalances worse. The best way to rebalance the economy in this case would be to increase pensions and social benefits for the elderly. It would also be politically popular, and while at first it might be...
9/9

opposed by local governments, who would be forced to foot the bill, it would eventually allow them to reduce spending on non-productive investment as it is replaced by an increase in productive business investment encouraged by higher direct and indirect consumption.

More from Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...
GOVERNMENT
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

2/10

spending) is projected to rise to 18.2% of GDP in 2020 from 12.6% in 2019. The authors correctly note the worrying surge in debt and warn that Beijing must continue to try to contain financial stability risks, but I notice that they are projecting average GDP...

3/10

growth of just over 6% between 2012 and 2025, including a downward revision of their 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9% (which I still think is a little high).

As I’ve long argued, it will be impossible for China both to control the surge in debt and to achieve growth...

4/10

targets above the real underlying growth rate of the economy, which I suspect is 2-3% at best. I know the IMF is constrained in what it is able to say about the Chinese economy if it wants to remain part of the advisory process, but I do think that after 10 years...

5/10

of watching this game we should be a lot more explicit about the relationship between unreasonably high GDP growth targets and high credit growth. There really is no point in advising Beijing to get financial risks under control while at the same time approving...
WORLD
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Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.
ECONOMY
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...
GOVERNMENT
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.
ECONOMY

More from China

Ryan Fedasiuk
Ryan Fedasiuk
@RyanFedasiuk
Who goes to work for China’s defense industry? In our latest, @emily_sw1 and I mapped talent flows between 🇨🇳 universities and defense SOEs.

🚨 We found that U.S. tech companies are indirectly aiding China's military.

Thread: (1/10)

2/10 In our report for @CSETGeorgetown, we measured the relationships between elite 🇨🇳 universities and China's defense industry by looking at their Graduate Employment Quality Reports.

Kudos to @alexjoske @ASPI_org for highlighting these sources:

3/10 We looked at disaggregated employment data for 29 of 45 leading universities—China’s Double First Class universities + those administered by MIIT.

Our dataset reflects the career moves of 140,000 Chinese university graduates in 2019.

6,000 took jobs at defense SOEs.


4/10 We confirmed that 🇨🇳 defense giants like CASC, CETC, and CSIC disproportionately recruit from seven universities: the Seven Sons of National Defense (国防七子).

The Seven Sons produced just 16% of graduates in our dataset, but 72% of those who took jobs at defense SOEs.


5/10 Then we started looking into the resources available to Chinese universities, investigating documents from the Ministry of Education.

MOE frequently "asks" foreign companies to help Chinese universities in research & curriculum development—the price of doing business in 🇨🇳.
CHINA
ShanghaiPanda
ShanghaiPanda
@thinking_panda
The CCTV's program is discussing China's eliminating poverty.
Today's theme is that govt should provide more sports facilities for remote areas and advocate healthier lifestyle.
China's experience is that eliminating poverty ≠ giving money, but providing sustainable solutions.


By the end of December 2019, China's rural poor people's participation in medical insurance rate has reached 99.99%.
More than 16 million poor people in China have received basic treatment services.

The China govt has formulated a three-year action plan to achieve the overall goal of ensuring basic medical care for the rural poor.
There are three main goals, six special actions and ten working standards.
It's called "health poverty alleviation plan".


Since 2016, China's Health Commission, poverty alleviation Bureau and other govt departments have organized nearly one million staff to investigate the prevalence of poverty people in all rural areas, and establish data platform to achieve accurate management.


China has constructed a mechanism of basic medical insurance, serious illness medical insurance and medical assistance linkage system.
All the insurance level has been improved.
Within three years, the govt has subsidized more than 10 billion yuan.
CHINA
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The Stellar Cygnus
The Stellar Cygnus
@Cygnus_022
@dhruv_rajnish @TheKidneyDocto1 See i m trying to keep here my point of view on Democracy in China.. okay.. China isn't a dictatorship if u exclude this Xi Jinping and Mao era.. They conduct fair elections where every candidate is supported by CCP.. They represent people.. (1/2)

@TheKidneyDocto1 China says, they have their own way of Democracy and they don't copy the west.. See "Stability" is most important in a country, especially in economic factors.. what happens in India is, if tomorrow a new govt of a different party comes, (2/3)

@TheKidneyDocto1 it will scrap the economic policies formed by the previous govts and again start a new different policy..It don't benefit anyone.See how Vietnam made most of the profit of Chinese boycott..Vietnam is not a democracy..See now everything comes now to the definition of Democracy 3/4

@TheKidneyDocto1 China and Chinese proudly say that they have Democracy.. Try asking one of them..
Now ethnic minorities..Okay..You do know that bhutan is the happiest country of the world..Many say that one of its reason is, they sent back the Nepalese ethinic groups back to Nepal and India..4/5

@TheKidneyDocto1 Now they live as a single ethinic community..China also doing the same.. They want Han Chinese to be one ethnic group and an atheist nation.. You may not agree with me, but i feel they are doing good.. See if all citezens will be Atheists and one single race, 5/6
CHINA
Carl Zha
Carl Zha
@CarlZha
As someone who actually grew up in China in 1980s, I can actually talked abt how commemoration of Nanjing Massacre changed inside China. I will make a thread


I was born in Oct 1976. 1 month after Mao died. I went to elementary school in China in 1982. my 1st to 4th grade was during honeymoon period btw Japan and China. We learn abt horrors of Hiroshima bombing and how Japan was a victim of US Imperialism


1985 was a pivotal year in Sino-Japanese relations. On the 40the year of Japanese surrender, Japanese PM Yasuhiro Nakasone visited Yasukuni shrine for the 1st time after WW2 Japanese war criminals had been enshrined there in 1978.


Another development was discovery in 1980s of 1 the most notorious Japanese war crime: Unit 731, biological and chemical weapon research unit of Imperial Japanese Army that performed lethal live human experiments on Chinese and Allied prisoners in China


In 1986, the 1st mainland China film on KMT fighting Japan, 血战台儿庄abt Battle of Tai'erzhuang, 1st major Chinese victory over Japan immediately aft Nanjiang Massacre came out. I learn abt Nanjing Massacre that year, I was 10.
CHINA
John Hayward
John Hayward
@Doc_0
Xi Jinping's speech at Davos boiled down to: The world has no choice but to do business with China, and if you want to do business with China, you need to stop criticizing our tyranny and questioning our lies about the

Xi's address to the World Economic Forum will serve as well as any other moment for historians to mark the beginning of the Authoritarian Era. He said nothing new, but he restated the narratives and demands of Chinese fascism from a post-pandemic position of aggressive strength.

For the first time, Xi spoke to a world that is beginning to accept the tenets of authoritarianism, thanks to the incredible political and economic damage from China's coronavirus. China's ideals have become as viral as Covid-19.

Thanks to the pandemic, the political elites of the world now universally see their citizens as dangerous mobs that must be tightly controlled for their own good. Most of them always thought that way, but now they can say it openly and act aggressively on their prejudices.

Xi clearly stated that China will not be contained, censured, or judged for its actions. He denounced Western ideals of human rights as "arrogance" and imperialism. After Covid and Biden's inauguration, he sees no nation with the strength or will to thwart China's ambitions.
WORLD , CHINA

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Mo Rajabifard
Mo Rajabifard
@morajabi
👨‍💻 Last resume I sent to a startup one year ago, sharing with you to get ideas:

- Forget what you don't have, make your strength bold
- Pick one work experience and explain what you did in detail w/ bullet points
- Write it towards the role you apply
- Give social proof

/thread


"But I got no work experience..."

Make a open source lib, make a small side project for yourself, do freelance work, ask friends to work with them, no friends? Find friends on Github, and Twitter.

Bonus points:

- Show you care about the company: I used the company's brand font and gradient for in the resume for my name and "Thank You" note.
- Don't list 15 things and libraries you worked with, pick the most related ones to the role you're applying.
-🙅‍♂️"copy cover letter"

"I got no firends, no work"

One practical way is to reach out to conferences and offer to make their website for free. But make sure to do it good. You'll get:

- a project for portfolio
- new friends
- work experience
- learnt new stuff
- new thing for Twitter bio

If you don't even have the skills yet, why not try your chance for @LambdaSchool? No? @freeCodeCamp. Still not? Pick something from here and learn https://t.co/7NPS1zbLTi
You'll feel very overwhelmed, no escape, just acknowledge it and keep pushing.
LIFE
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
LACHIT BORPHUKAN : AN UNSUNG WARRIOR OF THE AHOM KINGDOM & THE GREAT BATTLE OF SARAIGHAT

Originally named as Lachit Deca, Lachit Borphukan, the fierce and invincible Ahom Commander, was born during the early 17th century at Betioni in the Golaghat district of modern Assam.


His father, Momai Tamuli Borbarua was the ‘Governor’ of the kingdom and also ‘Commander-in-Chief’ of Ahom army under King Pratap Singha during his reign starting from 1603 to 1639. Lachit received military training from an early age and joined the Ahom King Jayadhvaj Singha...


...(1648-1663) as a scarf-bearer.  The post ‘scarf-bearer’ or ‘Soladhara Barua’ is considered as a part of the incumbent king’s personal staff. Owing to his military training Lechit was appointed "Ghora Barua", Supdt. of the Royal horses. When Chakradhwaj Singha became king..


..of Ahom dynasty in 1663,he appointed him Suptd. of The Royal Guards &finally he was appointed as Borphukan by the king.Then onwards,he was known as Lachit Borphukan.Borphukan used to be top councillor in Ahom Kingdom. This position was embedded with executive & judicial powers.


Assam was facing incessant Islamic invasion since Jan1662, when Mughal General Mir Jumla II attacked Ahom capital Gargaon. He never defeated Ahom king Jayadhwaja Singha as king retreated to hill &continued Guerrilla warfare.Prolonged fight &prospect of stalemate disturbed Jumla.
ALL
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Jim O'Shaughnessy
Jim O'Shaughnessy
@jposhaughnessy
I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.
ALL
Karol296
Karol296
@Karol296
Wracając do sedna dzisiejszego zamieszania z artykułem autosportu / motorsportu. Kubica mówi w nim, że podejmie swoją decyzję w ciągu kilku dni. Rozważa opcję z Williamsem lub posadę kierowcy symulatora w Ferrari. Więc za kilka dni dowiemy się co go czeka za rok. #F1PL

Autosport / motorsport zmienił nagłówek swoje tekstu, bo pierwotnie sugerował on że Kubica jest numerem jeden na liście Williamsa na tytuł mówiący tylko tym, że nadal jest na liście kandydatów. Zrobili to po interwencji zespołu. Same wypowiedzi Kubicy z wywiadu się nie zmieniły.

Trudno powiedzieć czy autor się pośpieszył i wyciągnął inne wnioski niż powinien, a może wie coś więcej, ale nie mógł tego otwarcie napisać. Słowa Kubicy brzmią jednak jednoznacznie: decyzję podejmie w ciągu kilku dni.
SPORT
Ranvijay Singh\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Ranvijay Singh🇮🇳...
@ranvijayT90
#Thread Two divine forms of Khatu Shyam ji...


On the day of Amavasya, devotees get the darshan of Shyam Baba in Shyam varan (black color). In ordinary days, the form of Baba is saffron. The reason for this is a custom. The real head of Shyam Baba which had appeared from Shyam Kund is of Shyam varan.


Every day Shyam Baba's grand Shringar is done by Pujaris. The main part of Shyam Baba's shringar is Tilak. This Shringar is done by the members of Nij Mandir sevaks. The sevaks of the Nij Mandir do sandalwood tilak to Baba everyday in the auspicious time.


This Divine Tilak is applied from the forehead to the nose. When Baba is given a bath by sevaks, this tilak comes off. Then in the auspicious time, the sevaks again apply tilak to Baba.


There is no auspicious time on the Amavasya. Because of this, tilak is not done on that day. That's why devotees have darshan of Shyam Baba on the Amavasya only in the actual real form (Shyam Swaroop). Baba's tilak is done on Amavasya only on the day of Deepawali.
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