As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...
1/9
Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.
As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...
knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.
This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...
Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.
The impression I get from Chinese friends involved in the lending process is that the real shock for Beijing occurred in 2014-15, when cratering oil prices left Venezuela in tatters, and China was forced reluctantly to provide first $4 billion in 2014 and then another $5...
billion in 2015 in cash-for-oil deals.
These and all its previous Venezuelan loans were then restructured for 3 years (and restructured again 3 years later). A friend of mine working on the deal told me at the time that all Latin American lending was now coming under...
much tighter scrutiny, and that there would be no new lending to Venezuela.
It is not surprising to me at all that this is when BRI lending peaked and began subsequently to fall. I don’t think Venezuela was the first loan...
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1. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY" https://t.co/BXdtcNxrVf
2. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"
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The great replacement isn't a conspiracy theory, it is the inevitable outcome of non-stop immigration of populations whom do not wish to assimilate and have way higher birth rates than the native population... It's purely a mathematical reality.
— Angelo John Gage (@AngeloJohnGage) December 30, 2020
2. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"
3. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"
4. "ThE gReAt rEplAcEMeNt iS A cOnSpiRaCy tHEorY"
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Does raising the minimum wage reduce the number of low-wage jobs?
No.
"We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages."
https://t.co/vlgagEHeyy
Minimum wage increases reduce crime.
https://t.co/1G1clXqF9t
When you increase the minimum wage, you decrease infant mortality among poor families.
https://t.co/iwW1FDsLYG
Increasing the minimum wage improves kids' health.
https://t.co/66DLHERpOJ
The minimum wage reduces racial income inequality.
https://t.co/wkn9Ajotlx
No.
"We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages."
https://t.co/vlgagEHeyy
Minimum wage increases reduce crime.
https://t.co/1G1clXqF9t
When you increase the minimum wage, you decrease infant mortality among poor families.
https://t.co/iwW1FDsLYG
Increasing the minimum wage improves kids' health.
https://t.co/66DLHERpOJ
The minimum wage reduces racial income inequality.
https://t.co/wkn9Ajotlx
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Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate
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