1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

1/9

China is aging so rapidly that it urgently needs to address the problem of a rapidly declining work force in a slowly declining population. To give an idea of relative population changes among the three most populous countries, today

2/9

are 4.3 Chinese for every American and 4.7 Chinese of working age (ages 15-64), while there is just over 1 Chinese for every Indian and 1.1 Chinese of working age.

By the end of the century, however, there are expected to be 2.5 Chinese for every American and...

3/9

just 2.4 Chinese of working age, while there will be 1.4 Indians for every Chinese and 1.5 Indians of working age. Over the rest of this century, in other words, while China’s population declines quite rapidly relative to that of the two other most populous countries, it...

4/9

also switches from having a much better dependency ratio than either to having a worse one than either, with far more of its dependents being the elderly rather than children. In effect its working age population will drop by half relative to those of the other two.

5/9

This is going to be a very tough problem to resolve, although to the extent China succeeds, it will be very useful as an example for other countries. I am not sure they are going about it the right way, however. Making seniors make better use of smart technology sounds...

1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.

1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.

1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.

1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...

210126 KYUNGSOO V-LIVE

Kyungsoo: Hi, I've been discharged from the military. To thank EXO-Ls, I started a V-Live~ I was discharged safely! I think y'all would have a lot of things you're curious about in my 1.5 years in army, it's a little awkward (doing this) but I'll try!

Kyungsoo: There's really a lot of things that I want to eat, as there are fixed menus in the military. I had lots of food made by Mum, I ate lots! Although things are tough now, I don't know how to say this but let's gain strength together and defeat this difficult time!

Kyungsoo: As for activities, there is a production called 'The Moon', it would be good if you could anticipate! There's a lot of things I wanted to try while in the military, like Guitar, I'm in the midst of taking lessons too.

Kyungsoo: There is music that I wish to try, so I'm planning hard to bring them to everyone! I read all the letters while in the military and I spent a lot of time reading them all- thank you so much! I'm really proud, and while reading them I felt really happy <3

The Great Northern Forests of Canada, Russia and Scandinavia are doomed to destruction due to the most severe expected temperature increases from global warming anywhere on Earth which will turn them to savannah within decades with severe consequences for all life on Earth.

*An extensive review of studies published in the journal Science found that the boreal forest can't migrate north fast enough to outpace the impacts of a changing climate.*

"This forest will convert to a type of savannah."

'consequences..will be

'feedback loops created by permafrost melt and wildfire destruction represent just a few of the worrisome effects of climate change in the boreal. Boreal forest ecosystems are particularly at risk to the rising temperatures of climate change'.

'Worrisome'!https://t.co/zZNKrRnqoZ

'Boreal forests aren’t just important for the climate. They are also home to over 20,000 species and of these more than 300 species listed in the IUCN Red List.. from woodland caribou in North America, and Blakiston’s fish owl in Russia, to Siberian

'When you add up both the absorption and emission, Canada's forests haven't been a net carbon sink since 2001. Due largely to forest fires and insect infestations, the trees have actually added to..greenhouse gas emissions for each of the past 15

@atsumori5834 An Argentinian variant of Italian fascism with stuff from German National Socialism that took an unexpected turn and led to a globalist and progressive ideology. Menemism was a conservative variant but not faithful to the doctrine and from that new generation arose Kirchnerism.

The Kirchnerists are antifascists and "supercapitalists", which is a term used by Juan Perón to refer to a deformed, monstrous style of government, the result of the fusion between Marxism and Capitalism (Globalism).

The Kirchneristas dubbed themselves Peronism and little by little they are making the orthodox Peronists treated like outdated garbage and surely soon persecuted as if they were authentic NationalSocialists. A tragedy.

Peronism is full of progressives, globalists, left liberals, feminists, zionists...
Left: Juan Perón, creator of the Peronism movement.
Right: Alberto Fernandez, actual leader of the Peronist movement. Pathetic.

In addition, the Kirchnerists give our sovereignty to the Chinese, and they do not recognize the value of our Japanese brothers. But Perón admired the Japanese a lot. Carlos Menem also maintained excellent relations with Japan