1/x The window we have been targeting for 2 months has officially opened... i Can not imagine a more textbook display of the power of Vanna at expiration as we saw on Friday. The capital building was overrun by an insurrection, but all that that meant was a bigger late day rally.

2/x that ended at ATH on the close. Between Gary the 🦍 & his RVol suppression & his hand off to late day Ivol compression & the Vanna index bid, the 🐻’s never had a chance... but Gary’s getting tired after 2 months battling complacency & Vanna’s 2 week vacation, 1 of her only
3/x 2 week departures of the year (a 5 week OpEx) is quickly approaching on 1/15 morning. That means she’ll be increasingly absent as she prepares for her trip. W/ a $59 1 week straddle & $50 1 day range on Friday, & another $30 overnight drop, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t
4/x want to take a chance on a little long gamma at this juncture. Especially given the obvious warning signs coming from the steepening of the yield curve, underperformance of the Growth complex, complacency in sentiment & positioning, anecdotal signs of bubbles in BTC & TSLA,
5/x NTM the growing exuberance surrounding a fiscal stimulus deal near $2 Trillion. The wall of worry of 3 months ago is gone. The vaccine is being deployed, the election is resolved, fiscal stimulus was passed & w/2 Georgia 🍑 🍑, ever moar 🚁💰is on the way. But what happened
6/x to antitrust fears, tax fears, & the fear of higher rates? 🦗 🦗 🦗... ‘The best lack conviction, while the worst R full of passionate intensity’ right now...Intraday Rvol is increasing as we break, The Generals are fading, & the market is increasingly kicking & trying to
7/x break free of what seems an impossible battle w/Gary the 🦍. Yet there is no fear... It almost always seems like the party will never end at the end. But I have exited from the back door. It’s never easy. It takes conviction and a willingness to miss the last hour of fun.
8/x But no one wants to be there when the 👮‍♀️ 👮‍♀️ show up. As we drag along a well defined floor in the VIX & approach an important inflection point. The Risk Reward is unmistakable. It is time to pull back on those incredibly successful dispersion trades & concentrate on the
9/x indices . It is time to opportunistically take a shot on a decline in the market at our levels...Our long held 3811 🎯has been met & though it’s possible for us to still see 3837 ***as the market attempts to shake the grip of IVol amidst a pain trade. Tremendous idiosyncratic
10/x risk sits around the corner, increasingly w/out the structural support it once enjoyed... A Classic correction this week would involve stair steps down with regular charm support flows struggling to underpin the increasingly negative flows. By Friday EOD, if we are to see
11/x anything more than a correction in time, we should at a minimum see a close below the 20 day. & by 1/22 we should see a close below the 1std dev of the 20 day, if we can’t manage a move at least close to this by then, the window will begin to close... look for narratives
12/x surrounding more domestic political unrest, potential geopolitical challenges in Asia, & the Middle East amidst political transition to percolate as the market inexplicably trembles. Keep an 👁 on p/c equity ratios on any rally, as well as NDX, TSLA & BTC weakness. Rising
13/13 Fixed strike vols, in the back will also be a canary in the coal mine. Vanna flows’ll continue to be concentrated around 1-3pm CST & increasingly in the mornings until 9am. It won’t be easy... Scalp from the short side & Take profits @ levels along the way. Good luck! 🍀

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Should we go into the details of these 125 years?


SA is built on the exploitation of labour. That labour has functioned on alcohol unfortunately. Very few people consume liquor purely for enjoyment unfortunately. When SAB opened its doors 1895 workers were paid in alcohol- the dop/tot system. 2 years into SAB's establishment

The Prohibition Act is introduced. This means black people are barred from buying your wines, beer etc. So SAB's products are exclusively for white people. But during this period beer brewing by Black women is the norm. Ayinxilisi ncam ke this type of beer. Apparently it had some

Nutritious elements to it. Now some of the context around drinking culture during this time is migrant labour to the mines, further land dispossession, the Anglo-Boer Wars, Rhodes corruption (our first state capture commission if you will) which leads to his resignation.

This context plays a role in how our cities and small towns are constructed, how they lead to the confinement and surveillance yabantu. Traditional beer brewing is identified as a threat because buy now mining bosses have identified that there's money to be made here.

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