4/x keepers are calling in the Fed(s) (Fed/sec) for some help getting the animals back under control, so they can feed Gary & get the zoo back under control. As they are likely giving guidance to the brokers to get this under control, as every major retail broker seems to be

5/x restricting trading in the short squeeze names to closing only. The Wheel of Fortune has a taping on Fri & w/out Gary at his best the show will be overrun by the animals. If they can make it to the EOM & keep Gary above the 20 day, calm him down & start feeding him,vanna will
6/x be back & should be able to nurse him back to his usual self & save the show. But there’s a lot of time between now & then & holding the animals @ bay until then seems like a colossal task. Given the pop in Ivols & backwardation of the curve, when vanna gets back she will be
7/x refreshed & in preelection form. The only question is will the animals be so out of control so as to not even be managed by Vanna in her best shape.. This decline fits into a narrative that I’ve had brewing for 4 months, that after a monster run since Sep this is a healthy &
8/x reasonable time to expect the animals to be tired of being caged up & want to blow off some steam. All the biggest wall of worry narratives have been solved 1 by 1. Sentiment & bullish positioning was at all time highs. Hedging activity was low. Breadth was deteriorating. W/
9/x HF stress recently increased and Vanna still on vacay, as we have discussed it makes sense that the zoo keepers were ripe for a disaster. That said, if the zoo keepers can restore order, this is very positive for the LT health of the market. As it has just been a 2 week
10/x Correction in time. & another upside move from this base could serve for a real thrust higher in the WoF Fortune ratings. Vanna paired w/ slowly improving Spring seasonality & continued NDX countertrend strength post earnings (for the reasons I have previously tweeted) could
11/x piece together a relief rally into 2/15-17. W/ the curve now in backwardation, calendar call spreads are still the play. Continue to pair them w/ skew & convexity funded w/ local IVol for tail protection, aware that if it rolls over the animals could spill into the streets.
12/x until we see 2 closed blow the 1 stddev down of the 20 day this will be a dip K will try and buy and w/VRP at 💯%ile, I will be writing index calls against the tail hedges as well. Remember the best trades are almost always the hardest. Stick to your rules.
13/13 Stay Disciplined to YOUR process, NO emotion will serve you best @ this juncture. It’s a ZOO out there...Good luck!🍀

More from Cem Karsan 🥐

1/x Vanna joined the wheel of fortune on this day in 1982,& 38 years later she’s stronger than ever...Friday’s into the Mon of qrtrly OpEx in particular aren’t a time to trifle w/her...As called for, the market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning


2/x by both HF & Retail, but ultimately these moves are no match for our fair lady’s charming flows during this window, & should continue to support this market through 12/16 w/ qrtrly Vixperation & the Fed upon us....As I highlighted Fri, the minor correction in price/time that

3/x we got down to the 20 day, w/precise technical support at that level, paired w/ increasingly positive Dark Pool (DIX) demand was a textbook buy signal, given the timing...Despite all of this, the real story is not these positive flows nearly as much as the continued reflexive

4/x IVol compression...This is the holiday gift that keeps on giving. Along w/ continued targeted short Vol, massive calendar expansion & dispersion opportunities continue to print $ with VRP >94th % of occurrences & post 1/8 Vol still at a floor... This $ train doesn’t show any

5/x sign of stopping yet, as I expect Ivol oversupply should continue to be the dominant force through at least 12/16 & once we get through 12/21 without incident, likely beyond...W/ lots of imbedded potential energy still in the VRP to fuel more vanna/charm flows in the month to

More from Society

It is simply not correct to point fingers at wind & solar energy as we try to understand the situation in TX. The system (almost) had a plan for weather (almost) like this. 1/x


It relied on very little wind energy - that was the plan. It relied on a lot of natural gas - that was the plan. It relied on all of its nuclear energy - that was the plan. 2/x

There was enough natural gas, coal and nuclear capacity installed to survive this event - it was NOT "forced out" by the wind energy expansion. It was there. 3/x

Wind, natural gas, coal and nuclear plants all failed to deliver on their expectations for long periods of time. The biggest gap was in natural gas! The generators were there, but they were not able to deliver. 4/x

It may be fair to ask why there is so much wind energy in ERCOT if we do NOT expect it to deliver during weather events like this, but that is an entirely different question - and one with a lot of great answers!! 5/x

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हिमालय पर्वत की एक बड़ी पवित्र गुफा थी।उस गुफा के निकट ही गंगा जी बहती थी।एक बार देवर्षि नारद विचरण करते हुए वहां आ पहुंचे।वह परम पवित्र गुफा नारद जी को अत्यंत सुहावनी लगी।वहां का मनोरम प्राकृतिक दृश्य,पर्वत,नदी और वन देख उनके हृदय में श्रीहरि विष्णु की भक्ति अत्यंत बलवती हो उठी।


और देवर्षि नारद वहीं बैठकर तपस्या में लीन हो गए।इन्द्र नारद की तपस्या से घबरा गए।उन्हें हमेशा की तरह अपना सिंहासन व स्वर्ग खोने का डर सताने लगा।इसलिए इन्द्र ने नारद की तपस्या भंग करने के लिए कामदेव को उनके पास भेज दिया।वहां पहुंच कामदेव ने अपनी माया से वसंतऋतु को उत्पन्न कर दिया।


पेड़ और पौधों पर रंग बिरंगे फूल खिल गए और कोयलें कूकने लगी,पक्षी चहकने लगे।शीतल,मंद,सुगंधित और सुहावनी हवा चलने लगी।रंभा आदि अप्सराएं नाचने लगीं ।किन्तु कामदेव की किसी भी माया का नारद पे कोई प्रभाव नहीं पड़ा।तब कामदेव को डर सताने लगा कि कहीं नारद क्रोध में आकर मुझे श्राप न देदें।

जैसे ही नारद ने अपनी आंखें खोली, उसी क्षण कामदेव ने उनसे क्षमा मांगी।नारद मुनि को तनिक भी क्रोध नहीं आया और उन्होने शीघ्र ही कामदेव को क्षमा कर दिया।कामदेव प्रसन्न होकर वहां से चले गए।कामदेव के चले जाने पर देवर्षि के मन में अहंकार आ गया कि मैने कामदेव को हरा दिया।

नारद फिर कैलाश जा पहुंचे और शिवजी को अपनी विजयगाथा सुनाई।शिव समझ गए कि नारद अहंकारी हो गए हैं और अगर ये बात विष्णु जी जान गए तो नारद के लिए अच्छा नहीं होगा।ये सोचकर शिवजी ने नारद को भगवन विष्णु को ये बात बताने के लीए मना किया। परंतु नारद जी को ये बात उचित नहीं लगी।
1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:

Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.

Characteristics of a personal moat below:


2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.

As Andrew Chen noted:


3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized

Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than


4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.

After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.

5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.

In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.