BC BUSINESS
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The Mother of All Squeezes

How Volkswagen went from being on the brink of bankruptcy to the most valuable company in the world in two days

/THREAD/

 1/ At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Volkswagen was considered a very likely candidate for bankruptcy.

Heavily indebted and already financially struggling before 2008, with car sales expected to plummet due to the ongoing global crisis.
2/ With GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy in 2009, shorting the VW stock would seem a safe bet.

If you are not familiar with stock shorts and short squeezes check my thread below.

https://t.co/ABGshetm9x
3/ On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced it had increased its stake at VW from 30% to 74%.

This was a surprise to many who were led to believe that Porsche wasn't planning a takeover of VW, based on the company's announcements.
4/ Before the announcement, the short interest was approximately 13% of the outstanding shares, a number considered relatively low.

Porsche had a 30% stake, the Lower Saxony government fund held 20% of the shares, and another 5% was held by index funds.
5/ Due to VW's high weighting in the German index (DAX), the VW stock comprised 17% of the total index at the time.

This left 45% of the available shares to cover for the 13% of short shares.

However, with Porsche acquiring an additional 44% the outstanding shares were only 1%.
6/ Porsche in their statement said that they “decided to make this announcement after it became clear that there are by far more short positions in the market than expected.”
7/ They added that “the disclosure should give so-called short-sellers, meaning financial institutions which have betted or are still betting on a falling share price in Volkswagen, the opportunity to settle their relevant positions without rush and without facing major risks.”.
8/ This triggered a panic among short-sellers trying to rush to the exits, after Porsche's announcement on a Sunday with markets closed.

Due to the short squeeze, VW's stock rose 66% on Monday and skyrocketed to more than $1,000 on Tuesday.
9/ At that moment, VW was valued at a market cap exceeding $420 billion, surpassing Exxon Mobil and Microsoft.

In a single day, it became the most valuable company in the world.
10/ However, on Wednesday, Porsche provided 5% of its shares to the short-sellers, bringing the price down by 50%.

By December, it had returned to its normal levels, in the mid-200s.
11/ This trade shouldn't surprise anyone familiar with Porsche's activities.

The company was basically a hedge fund selling luxurious cars on the side.

In 2007, 3/4 of the company's profits were from trading derivatives and the rest from selling cars.
12/ From the 2008 VW squeeze, Porsche profited by more than $8 billion, with its CEO, Wendelin Wiedeking, pocketing a $100 million bonus.

The hedge funds that were involved in shorting the VW stock incurred collective losses exceeding $30 billion.

/END/
If you liked this thread click below and retweet the first tweet, and follow to stay updated.

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For more educational threads on financial independence and investing for beginners see below for a collection of threads 👇👇👇

https://t.co/eRwAf5k7oe

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The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable

How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements

/THREAD/


1/ One day you receive an unsolicited newsletter from a stockbroker in Baltimore.

It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.

A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.


2/ The next week, you get another newsletter from the stockbroker, this time with a tip about a stock that will fall.

And next week, the stock craters.


3/ Ten weeks go by, and each week you receive a tip about a stock that will go up or down.

Every time the prediction comes true.


4/ On the 11th week, you get a solicitation to invest your money with the Baltimore stockbroker for a hefty commission, justified by his successful predictions.

That sounds like a great deal, right?
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The British Railway Mania

How a disruptive technology created the biggest speculative bubble in the history of England

/THREAD/


1/ Railways were the most disruptive technology of the 19th century, known as the "railway age", transforming England from an agricultural to an industrialized nation.

2/ The development of railway infrastructure and locomotives started at the end of the 18th century but experienced immense growth after 1830.


3/ Hundreds of railway related bills were passed every year with proposed rails totaling 10,000 miles, a third of which was never built due to poor financial planning, competition, or fraud.

4/ In the mid-1840s, the Bank of England cut interest rates rendering government bonds unattractive, and investors more willing to rush in the railway investments.
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This year I started writing daily on Twitter about finance and investing and gained more than 500 followers in 2 weeks

Here are the main things I learned on Twitter growth

1. Brand
2. Content
3. Engagement
4. Networking
5. Tools

/THREAD/

1. Brand
You need to find a niche you are interested in and focus on it
E.g. finance, fashion, travel, etc.

Adjust your profile by adding a profile picture and banner that will show someone what your profile is about and why they should follow you.

Add a linktree that will have all the links for your blog, website, newsletter, etc.

2. Content
Don't wait to gain followers before posting. Nobody will follow you if they see an empty feed.

Start posting daily focusing more on single tweets or threads that provide insights on a topic people in your niche might be interested in.

At first, it will feel like talking to a mirror.

Have a pinned tweet, which will be your best one that will catch the attention of someone visiting your profile.
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Tulips, the #Bitcoin of the 17th century

How a pandemic, FOMO, and speculation made a flower worth the same as a mansion

/THREAD/


1/ During the beginning of the 1630s in the Netherlands, tulips were difficult to cultivate and preserve.

This made them a luxury good reserved for the rich and affluent of the upper class living in mansions with big gardens.


2/ The tulip market was not organized nor regulated, as other trades, which made it easy for professional growers to enter it.
Due to the international trade expansion, the growers starting cultivating rare varieties, to achieve higher prices.

3/ The biggest change occurred when florists used tulip bulbs as speculative assets.

The market expansion led to forward bulb-purchase contracts, thus enabling trading during the entire year, and not just during the summer months when tulips bloom.


4/ Easy loans and credit for forward contract purchases led many to enter the market since not much capital was required.

People from the lower economic class (maids, servants, craftsmen) could not resist the temptation for some quick profits and entered the speculative market.
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California Gold Rush, the biggest get-rich-quick scheme in American history

How Sam Brannan became the wealthiest man in California without selling a single ounce of gold

/THREAD/


1/ On January 24, 1848, a carpenter named James W. Marshall discovered gold at John Sutter's Mill in Coloma California (close to present-day Sacramento), where he was employed.

Californian residents were the first to rush into the area in late 1848.


2/ By 1849, the word had spread around the world with almost 100,000 gold-seekers and merchants immigrating to California from across the US and abroad, being named forty-niners.

By 1855 the number reached 300,000. It was the biggest immigration movement at the time.


3/ The gold influx into the money supply system rejuvenated the country's economy giving statehood to California.

The rise in population led to an expansion in various sectors, such as agriculture, ranching, and merchandising.


4/ The San Francisco population exploded from 200 residents in 1846 to 30,000 in 1852.

Many cities and infrastructure was built across California.

New methods of mining and transportation were developed creating a technological boom.
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Should we go into the details of these 125 years?


SA is built on the exploitation of labour. That labour has functioned on alcohol unfortunately. Very few people consume liquor purely for enjoyment unfortunately. When SAB opened its doors 1895 workers were paid in alcohol- the dop/tot system. 2 years into SAB's establishment

The Prohibition Act is introduced. This means black people are barred from buying your wines, beer etc. So SAB's products are exclusively for white people. But during this period beer brewing by Black women is the norm. Ayinxilisi ncam ke this type of beer. Apparently it had some

Nutritious elements to it. Now some of the context around drinking culture during this time is migrant labour to the mines, further land dispossession, the Anglo-Boer Wars, Rhodes corruption (our first state capture commission if you will) which leads to his resignation.

This context plays a role in how our cities and small towns are constructed, how they lead to the confinement and surveillance yabantu. Traditional beer brewing is identified as a threat because buy now mining bosses have identified that there's money to be made here.
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Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?


Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir

BAU’s official Twitter account


BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU

Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
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swapnilkabra
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A small thread to explain the tax implications of dividend of Rs.974 per share declared by #majesco Ltd which is winding up its business🧵👇

1. For starters, Majesco is declaring such huge dividend on account of it selling its US business. But, as an investor, should one think of buying the shares now? Let us find out.

2. The current market price per share of Majesco is Rs.980. This is almost at par with the dividend per share. Now, if you buy shares of Majesco, you will be entitled to dividend of Rs.974 per share.

3. Please keep in mind that dividend income is not exempt in the hands of the shareholders. It will be taxed as per regular slabs.

4. Say you are in highest slab of 30%, you will be taxed at that rate. To simplify you will be getting a net amount of Rs.681 per share (Rs.974- 30% tax).
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Travis
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It's endlessly fascinating how economic datapoints get interpreted.

When I was in charge of a P&L, the guy who ran Finance for us and I had what we called the 'shelf plan.'

There were maybe 3-4 of us who knew it existed.

What's a shelf plan?
1/

Well it's a plan you keep on the shelf (full FP&A model), that you hope you never have to use.

It reduces forward hires, cuts back various line items (typically ad spend, travel, that sort of thing).

Oh, it also has a big fat RIF in there.

That's why we don't talk about it.
2/

Why have a plan instead of winging it?

Because this is where companies (particularly young companies) sometimes err. They do little cuts - 2-3% here and there, preserving as much headcount as they can, that sort of thing.

This is incorrect.
3/

If you're at the point where you need to make material changes to your forward P&L, at 2-3% RIF will be followed by another.

And another.

And this series of progressive cuts will cripple morale, incrementally reducing the productivity of the staff you retain to survive.
4/

And so the shelf plan cuts deep.

Your goal is to go from being a peacetime machine to a wartime machine, so you gotta lean out quick. Can't do that without a plan, hence the need to have one.

~30% cut is what you need.

And then you need to tell everyone left they're safe.
5/
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@cforman
There are so many #HotTakes on the future of news and tech and digital this week. Now nearly half a year distant (and what a year - 2020, ugh!) from CEO and board @mcclatchy, I'd like to add a few thoughts: 1/


As @jbenton said in @NiemanReports : @mcclatchy transformation shows it STILL is possible NOW 'to be operationally profitable while still doing good journalism.' Not easy; Covid made it harder. But POSSIBLE and DONE by the great team in 2020 @mcclatchy. 2/

As @jbenton wrote: the #DIGITALTRANSFORMATION @mcclatchy 'shows a company that has managed the digital transition better than most; at last public count, it was making nearly half its ad revenue in digital and digital subscriptions were up 45% year-over-year.' Such focus 3/

On the future is digital is the SOLE way the still-powerful brands of local news and information will be able to have a business in the inevitable 'printless' future (Not today, not tomorrow, but printless someday) 4/

And the crisis in local news is relentless, unabating and by most measures WORSENING. More titles going dark; huge losses to our communities, because solely a blend of new digital startups AND existing footprint offer the scale 5/
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