BC BREXIT
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🍤🐟🥬📦✈️🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨
So here it is. After the euphoria, the @FinancialTimes @FTMag long read of how @BorisJohnson did his Trade deal with the EU. Tl:dr...not so much “build back better”, more “build back the borders” - stay with me/1.

 @FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson The really under-appreciated part of this story is the extent to which the Johnson government, having won its 80 seat majority promising to "Get Brexit Done" then explicitly and actively chose the hardest possible version of #brexit in defiance of commercial interests /2
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Our story begins in January last year when David Frost commenced what Whitehall insiders call a "Star Chamber" process to strip away anything that might be considered more than a "Canada-style" deal - regardless of the fact that UK doesn't trade with EU like Canada! /3
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson So what did that mean in practice?

Well, for example leaving EU aviation safety agency (EASA); Chemicals agency (ECHA), not getting a waiver of 'safety and security' declarations for hauliers, not seeking special arrangements for animal products...on and on it goes /4
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Didn't industry object? Well yes it did - but those who yelled too hard found themselves shut out of the door.

Did Whitehall object? Yes it did - Defra and Beis and Treasury all tried at some level to temper the revolutionary fury. But mostly failed. /5
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson I recall reporting at the time that the haulage industry just couldn't believe, given 10,000 trucks a day crossed the Channel, that the UK gov wouldn't want a waiver on Safety & Security decs....a waiver Norway and Switzerland have. But no. Only Canada./6
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson Some did belly-ache. I recall this amazing letter from @PauleverittADS about the government's promise to consult over EASA membership...and then announcing it had decided anyway. Objections were just batted away.... /7

https://t.co/DE5wV3HNH6
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS As @GeorgeWParker - brilliant steward of this piece - reported back in January 2020, industries were told they were in "secular decline" - and who could forget @afneil telling @MakeUK_ conference that No.10 thought 3D printing was the answer /8

https://t.co/kYX7jOn8n9
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ To be fair, no secret was made of this - @DavidGHFrost went to Brussels and gave a speech in which he said industry was exaggerating...the next few years will show whether he was right. Doesn't feel that way to fishermen like Ian Perkes./9

https://t.co/1kLxFovh1U
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost I should add a side-note here on services, which where already pretty much forsaken because of ending free movement - but the City knew that battle was lost. One exec observes Tory party is "controlled by ideologues" that put sovereignty over the economy. /10
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost The brutal paring back of ambition created an unprecedented inversion of what trade talks are about - growing trade.

So that 'success' defined by @BorisJohnson's own terms - landing a Canada-style deal - meant the constriction of trade. We slipped through the looking glass./11
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost It is true that the 'deal' is better than a 'no deal' would have been, but this was a barebones deal that was done with heads deliberately stuck in the sand. Damage assessments were not done. “Someone would occasionally proposedoing the work and everyone would say: ‘No.’”

Wow/12
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost I wonder if any company CEO, or headteacher, or hospital administrator or bus driver or cafe owner proceeded on this basis...how long would they keep their job before being struck off, or suffering a shareholder revolt, or going bust? Could you do it in a normal walk of life? /13
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost The negotiation itself was successful on its own terms - the UK did indeed get a skinny deal, walking into the 'elephant trap' that Sir Ivan Rogers had set out in Christmas 2019 - and neatly summarised here by @AntonSpisak

https://t.co/vH7H8p44zZ
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak When the endgame came - wonderfully reported by my Brussels colleagues @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming - the UK gave up even on the 'extras' it had asked for on professional services and 'cross-cumulation of rules of origin' for carmakers.../14

https://t.co/fNX50cPPKu
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming As time wore on, the UK deployed its 'madman' strategy - not even @BorisJohnson knew if he'd go for deal or no deal - and there were times when there was so little strategy you wondered if that was actually true. I never spoke to EU folk who believed he'd do no deal fwiw /15
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming There was that small matter of the threat to break international law...which UK negotiators believed shook things up, but on EU side, only seemed to push Berlin behind Paris in demanding tough 'ratchet clauses' etc. And damaged our world standing /16

https://t.co/o88fnMkQKy
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming But @BorisJohnson got his deal, barebones as intended - and then told everyone that it contained no "no non-tariff barriers to trade" - and that wasn't an off-the-cuff remark. Watch the tape at 7m.29s, he's reading a text /17
https://t.co/FPP3IgFHLH
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming That means that someone in No.10 actually wrote that down. They put it into an approved text when they must have known it not to be true. Perhaps @BorisJohnson wrote it himself, but that really is an alternative fact.

Odd to be so proud of a Canada deal, then disown it. /18
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming And so what about the future? Yes, we'll suffer some frictions burns at the border now, but that will open the door to a sea of opportunity etc... @ColdChainShane says trade will be "slower, more expensive and
less flexible"...but the upside seems less clear. /19
@FinancialTimes @FTMag @BorisJohnson @PauleverittADS @GeorgeWParker @afneil @MakeUK_ @DavidGHFrost @AntonSpisak @jimbrunsden @Sam1Fleming @ColdChainShane Still. What's done is done...what it will mean for the future - politically and economically - is still very unclear. At some level, the architects of this deal must know - amongst all the cries of freedom etc - they've created a lot of burdens for a lot of people. Now what? ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: 🚨🚨🇫🇷🇬🇧🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🇫🇷🇬🇧🚢🚢🚢🚨🚨 The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also don’t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread


So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a £200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc..

Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than £450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3

So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over £194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...£33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for £33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4


Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🚛🚒🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨🚨 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? 😬 Stay with me. 1/


So first the problem: its a tad complicated but basically goods that are imported into UK and then 'hubbed' onwards into Ireland or other parts of the EU are facing full EU tariffs - this is particularly bad for food stuffs, which attract high tariffs. Why is this? /2

It's a function of the Rules of Origin clauses that mean that goods have to sufficiently "originate" in the UK to qualify for zero-tariff entry to EU (and vice versa).

But to qualify, you have to do something to the goods - process them or add value - not just punt them on /3

The brilliant @AnnaJerzewska does a better job than me of explaining, but the important thing is that this is a nightmare for companies that 'hub' /distribute products through the UK - and that's both EU and UK companies /4


So both the @Foodanddrinkfed and EU groups like @CAOBISCO_EU (chocs etc) say they want the EU Commission to fix this with a derogation/waiver that takes into account proximity and interdependence of EU/UK supply chains. /5
BREXIT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
GOVERNMENT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW. 🚨🚨🚛🇬🇧🙄🚛🚚🚨🚨 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2


The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering £150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5
GOVERNMENT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd


@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5
TAXATION BILL

More from Brexit

Nick Reeves 3.5% #FBPE
Nick Reeves 3.5% #FBPE
@nickreeves9876
1/ Brexit politics is built on fear. Frightened people tend to seek security in the tribe. Once that tribe might have been the Labour movement, but now in a fragmented post-industrial society it is the nation. Tribal identification is emotional, not rational.


2/ A tribe that feels under threat wants to control its borders, and who enters into its territory. It demands loyalty and solidarity, and its prime virtue is self-sacrifice - economic arguments won't persuade tribalists. Its members want to feel it is strong and powerful.

3/ Tribalism at a time of crisis is intolerant of dissent. The tribe must pull together against its enemies. Dissent and questioning cause division and disrupt the collective effort. Criticism is seen as treason. The Brexit right have ruthlessly exploited tribal psychology.


4/ To understand Brexit politics it is necessary to understand that the working and middle classes are dead as coherent political forces and that frightened and insecure people are now clinging to the only available powerful tribe, the nation-tribe.

5/ The Brexit right understands and ruthlessly exploits basic social emotions. In contrast the centre and centre-left mostly can see no further than the blinkered logic of rational individualism, from which perspective everything else is irrational and incomprehensible.
BREXIT
katya adler
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU views PMs letter accompanying his formal #Brexit extension request - saying that he doesn’t actually want an extension- as a gimmick aimed at a domestic audience. As far as EU law is concerned: a formal request from the UK prime minister, is a formal request full stop /1

EU leaders not rushing to make decisions. Instead they watch events in Westminster carefully. If their newly negotiated #Brexit deal is approved by the majority of MPs - as the PM promised them it would be - then possibly no extension will be needed OR /2

Only a short one maybe to allow for necessary legislation to be completed. If this is the case, EU leaders won’t think twice about granting this short extension. They may even approve it by writing rather than on person at an emergency #Brexit summit. Spoiler alert../3

EU leaders - who surprise, surprise already have a thing or two planned in their diaries over next couple of weeks - have zero appetite to return to Brussels again especially for #Brexit They have no desire to be involved in the drama playing out right now in the UK BUT /4

If MPs reject the deal, if there are plans for a general election or a referendum on the deal then a longer extension will be necessary. Here it is harder for EU leaders to come to immediate consensus so an emergency summit becomes likely /5
BREXIT
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Howard Goodall
Howard Goodall
@Howard_Goodall
Dear fellow musicians, performers, technicians etc. Here’s a thread about how our lives are going to change re touring/working in the EU in 50 days time. Think of it as a kind of Bad News Advent calendar. Here goes 1/

First things first, you’ll need a passport with at least 6 months left on it. And you’ll need full travel/third party/health insurance, since if you get ill or have an accident every penny of your care will have to be paid for 2/

To work or do a gig you’re going to need a work visa, just like you do for the USA. But here’s the thing. Work permits & visas and the conditions attached are a matter not for the EU but for the member states themselves 3/

Yes, every member state controls who comes in and who doesn’t and what the rules will be for work and residency. It’s almost as if the Brexiters have been lying about this ALL ALONG. EU members CONTROL THEIR OWN BORDERS 4/

So you’ll need to get a work permit for every country you’re intending to work or gig in and the rules are often different, as are the rules on eg taxation of that work (eg Spain has a withholding tax, France does not) 5/
EU , BREXIT
Bloke From Barnsley #Is #Sisu
Bloke From Barnsley #I...
@nickynoo007
1. It surprises me that on the whole pro Europeans on Twitter view themselves as pragmatists, who rely on evidence to form their opinion.
In fact a long running joke in our 'group' is that Brexit will be a roaring success, if we all just believe hard it will be a roaring success.

2. The last couple of weeks have made it clearer than ever that blind belief that is impervious to evidence and facts is not a leave/remain thing. It's a human thing

3. I was accused of lying and hounding a 'vulnerable' person off Twitter. When the victims of that 'vulnerable' got the same treatment, it became necessary to take action.

4. So I gathered evidence (not all, but enough) and wrote a blog with contributions from several others. Then the blog was checked by experts to ensure that it was neither libellous (to protect authors) or a risk to any possible legal action (to protect victims).

5. I naively thought that would put an end to the false accusations and trolling.
Since publishing I've been accused of having called the "vulnerable' person and threatened members of their family, forcing them to confess to the police
BREXIT
European Unity #FBPE \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f4b6\u2b50\ufe0f
European Unity #FBPE 🇪...
@EuropeanUnity1
#Brexitadventcalendar

31 liars & hypocrites who facilitated brexit

Some are mad, some are bad

All are millionaires, some are billionaires

They’ll profit from UK companies failing, keep their money abroad to avoid UK tax and travel freely with their EU passports

#RejoinEU


https://t.co/mZRr9u1RPb


https://t.co/BY6hKloR9d


https://t.co/NdC0ltLeSM


https://t.co/BLnRLotso7
BREXIT

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Brian Cates
Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"


The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
A thing which I unironically and enthusiastically believe which is unpopular among smart people of my acquaintance: financial engineering has in the recent past and present contributed substantially to human welfare. We should hope to see more of it.

Maybe more geeks need to meet someone who says “My job is teleporting value across time and space.”

Financial engineering is sort of a squishy term. I don’t primarily mean payments infrastructure or financial rails, although both of those involve substantial engineering.

I mean more “We took a thing and performed some alchemy, and now have a new thing.”

Except instead of alchemy it is generally quite a bit of math, a huge amount of contract law and due diligence, often an impressive amount of ops work, and a dusting of technology that web devs would recognize as such.
ALL
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Andrew Chen
Andrew Chen
@andrewchen
👇Thread.

Published a new essay: The red flags and magic numbers that investors look for in your startup’s metrics – 80 slide deck included!


This was a deck that I created on my (longish) interview process with @a16z. It was a long path, starting with meeting folks at the firm 10 years ago. But the purpose of the deck was to explain how I would use my superpower in an investing context

Here's what I explain in the deck. As investors (whether angel or VC) we're often confronted with an up-and-to-the-right graph. Is it going to go up? Or down?


One solution to forecast these growth curves is the Growth Accounting Framework, where you add up New+Reactivated and subtract churned users. In each time period that gives you the difference in monthly actives.


The problem with this is that it's a lagging metric, not a leading one. We need to go one level deeper and look at the underlying loops that drive these numbers, to understand the quality.
STARTUPS
Jonathan Ware
Jonathan Ware
@ReassessHistory
Rhino Barges

One of the dullest, coolest, more bizarre and fascinating pieces of kit used in Normandy.

Which NO ONE REALLY CARES ABOUT.

BUT I DO AND YOU SHOULD TOO.
/1

#WW2 #SWW #History


Planning for Overlord and Neptune had a serious snag, how to get troops from LSTs onto the beach as simply ramming them onto the beaches and dropping the ramp was known to damage the exceptionally vulnerable LSTs and felt to be unsustainable in the mid to long term. /2


LSTs were essential in sustaining Overlord's progress and were a subject of major headaches in the planning phase, and a real subject of friction when it came to launching additional amphibious operations such as Dragoon.

A single LSTs loss represented a capability nick. /3


So, logic dictated, we don't really want these remarkable but rare and highly valuable vessels constantly doing beach landings, we want something to act as a medium between ship to shore, and in came the (mostly) American designed Rhino. /4


I fucking love Rhinos.

Seriously.

Graceful lines of pure industrial pedigree.

Modular.

LOOK AT IT. /5
HISTORY
Ramsay Rippers \U0001f354
Ramsay Rippers 🍔...
@RamsayRippers
🧵EMA + VWAP STRATEGY

Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.

Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

👇

What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.

Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
- 21
- 50

While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)
STRATEGY