BC BREXIT
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BREAK: ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿš™๐Ÿš—๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also donโ€™t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread

@FT So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a ยฃ200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc.. /2

https://t.co/aFzelRLlEX
@FT Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than ยฃ450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3
@FT So here is the list of what everyone got - 41 ports had winning bids totaling just over ยฃ194m - but you'll note that Dover got...wait for it...ยฃ33k. No, that is not a type. Thirty-three thousand pounds. They asked for ยฃ33m!! Why? Well to build new passport lanes. /4
@FT Why? Because as an @NAOorguk report warned in November the Govt's 'reasonable worst case scenario' for delays at Dover for passenger traffic was "one to two hours" and "much longer" in the summer. Eeek. Happy hols everyone! /5

https://t.co/K77Is5tfxk
@FT @NAOorguk So here is @PortOfDover EU Exit boss Tim Reardon explaining to the Lords EU Cmme why they needed to double the number of French kiosks from five to 10 - because we'll soon be facing intrusive new checks; stamps in passport etc. Oh joy. /6

https://t.co/6989KZPHqQ
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover The Cabinet Office have yet to explain their thinking fully on why Dover didn't get the money - or why they didn't fine more cash when it was clear the Fund was more than twice over-subscribed. But ministers have explained how they whittle down the field. See this:/7
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But none of that explains really why a government that is merrily building borders doesn't appear to want to pay for them to be built...surely in the case of Dover, when everyone is sitting fuming in queues this summer...the extra five booths might have paid off?! /8
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover But his is MUCH bigger than Dover. This is about booting up port infrastructure across the UK to deal with those extra 215m customs declarations, the new processes Ireland-GB, the expected increase in 'short sea' crossings to Harwich and the Humber. It's #Brexit made flesh! /9
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover It's fair to say there is a LOT of grumbling out there today as these awards were circulated.

Portsmouth got ยฃ17.1m - which is about ยฃ8m short of what they asked for, I am told. /10
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover Their MP @StephenMorganMP is fuming. He says the money falls "far short" of what they need and is less than "the money mandated by the governmentโ€™s own border operating model" - I can see the Govt getting some heat on all this in coming days/weeks. /11
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP This leaves ports facing a real dilemma as the July 1 2021 deadline approaches...do the go ahead and build scaled back, inadequate infrastructure...or seek more money or what? See this from @mikesellersPIP the boss of @PortsmouthPort /12
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort And I can tell you that dilemma is NOT confined to Portsmouth.

Humber ports like Purfleet & Killinghome that deal with 'trailer' freight from the EU on short-sea crossings also have lots to do. Holyhead must deal with huge new Irish freight issues etc. /13
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort Some got nothing, others took an across the board haircut 33% haricut on what they did get.

@timgmorris Chief Exec UK Major Ports Group says they're "very disappointed that the allocations of funding are so late in the day and significantly short of what many ports require."/14
@FT @NAOorguk @PortOfDover @StephenMorganMP @mikesellersPIP @PortsmouthPort @timgmorris His group is now calling on the Government "to work urgently with the sector to review funding levels and timingsโ€...because tickety-tock the new border hurtles towards us (exact details still tbc...checks date...16 Dec...mops brow) /15
The point is that everyone, I think, knows it is going to be pretty choppy logistically few months - and then again, with a 'second cliff-edge' in July 1 2021 for goods coming EU-GB, so it seems odd to me Govt isn't chucking sufficient wedge at this one. /16
Because if & when the blame game begins over port congestion, I think I have a fair bet about where the finger will be pointing - at least from the point of view of a pretty sore UK ports industry today. ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿšš๐Ÿšš๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿšจ

As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are โ€˜in a messโ€™ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3


@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked ยฃ200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW


The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3


This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ


But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here
GOVERNMENT
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Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly โ€” there is no alternative to it. /5
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW. ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ™„๐Ÿš›๐Ÿšš๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2


The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering ยฃ150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5
GOVERNMENT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšš๐Ÿš›๐Ÿšจ๐Ÿšจemail from Robert Hardy @RobHardyFR8 whose Customs Clearance Consortium is part of govtโ€™s ยฃ200m scheme for GB-NI border warns of โ€œhuge shortageโ€ of customs agents. Via @SJAMcBride /1

https://t.co/WoLWdI8LoF


He adds: โ€œExport from GB with import to Ireland [is] amongst the most complicated...We expect heavy volumes at Dover from tonight as GB exports start to ramp up and many transporters do not have transit and EU clearance in place.โ€ ...remember @BrandonLewis โ€˜no borderโ€™ tweet ๐Ÿ™„/2


He then warns - as @RHARichardB had warned - that the issue is companies providing poorly cleansed/matched data...and announces CCC doesnโ€™t have capacity to raise docs in mainland EU/3


This is example of what Biz needs to do when moving agri foods - hauliers and vets tell me there is still no solution from Defra/Daera on how to do multiple pickups that require export health certificates at each stop (not uncommon) /4


In the next week or two weโ€™ll see how these issue play into supply chains - and the issue that trucks flow in a cycle, GB-NI/IE-GB...so you need enough returning to keep the flow going. /5
FINANCE

More from Brexit

Ian Dunt
Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Commons debate of the Brexit deal kicks off in a bit and lasts until 2:30pm, when it goes off to the Lords. You can follow here.

I'm going to tweet along to the Commons bit because fuck it, what else is there to do. Just to eat and drink and be merry and relaxed, and why would anyone want to do something like that.

In the mean time, I strongly recommend this blog by @Brigid_Fowler of the Hansard Society

"Parliamentโ€™s role around the end of the Brexit transition and conclusion of the EU future relationship treaty is a constitutional failure to properly scrutinise the executive and the law."

The great irony at the heart of it all. This entire process was done to give parliament control. In reality, it is spending much less time scrutinising constitutional changes than when we were in the EU.
BREXIT
Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
BREXIT
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John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch โ€œall the fish that it wants โ€ in UK waters in 5 yearsโ€™ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overallโ€ฆ the deal falls far short of the exaggerated โ€œsea of opportunityโ€ promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years โ€“ is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it wonโ€™t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

Firstโ€ฆthe length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says โ€œ2026 onwardsโ€ In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
BREXIT
George Riddell
George Riddell
@GeorgeMRiddell
Been a lot of discussion recently around services trade in the deal between the UK and EU. Having read through the agreement over the past couple of days, my impressions๐Ÿ‘‡

First off, services is definitely included. Question for service providers, is will it be enough?

1/N

My overall impression is that the EU has offered among the best in class for its FTAs similar to Canada and Japan.

But this access is a far cry from access to the Single Market and how is constructed as part of a trade agreement for the EU reflects that.

2/n


Unlike for goods trade, once you've got a product through all the customs and regulatory procedures into the EU, it can be sold anywhere in the EU, or its "entered circulation".

For services trade, that isn't the case. Its still done on a member state by member state level.

3/n

This is even true in the trade agreement itself where although the provisions set out in the Services and Investment chapter sounds awfully good - lots of principles about the freedom to establish and allowing the cross-border trade in services.

It's only when...

4/n

You get to the annexes and you realise both the EU and individual member states have put entry conditions across huge areas of different services sectors both now (existing measures) & in the future. Don't worry too much about the future reservations, it's the existing ones.

5/n
BREXIT
Peter Foster
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
It's OUT! The first #Brexit Briefing of 2021...which explores how unrealistic some industry expectations are about 'fixes' to the current deal, now the penny is dropping about what it means for supply chains and UK position vis-a-vis EU

So take the example this week, where the @Foodanddrinkfed raised the issue that UK-hubs for food and drink were "unworkable" since goods that came in from the EU were attracting full tariffs when the were spun back into Ireland or other EU members /2



They were backed by other EU associations - and both said they would lobby UK govt and @EU_Commission to 'fix' what they presumed was an "unintended consequence" of the deal....except that both EU officials and UK govt have basically shrugged. The deal is the deal. /3

@EU_Commission This is in no way confined to food industry - clothes and retailers are also hard-hit.

But lots of industry has wrongly bet that 'common sense' and 'self interest' would prevail once the nasty negotiations phase was out the way...but that's not the signal being sent. /4

As one EU official puts it: โ€œYou canโ€™t expect the UK to remain the food import hub for the EU. Itโ€™s not sustainable, and makes no sense in the mid-to-longer run." And that applies to financial services, clothing, retail goods....a bureaucratic curtain has descended. /4
BREXIT

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2....@Potus sent Jared Kushner (JK) to SA on an undisclosed trip and told King Salman that business as usual was over, and if he wanted Pres Trump's support, Prince Alwaleed would have to be divested of $ and power; Alwaleed is one of top Deep State $ men and was tied to HRC.


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IMPORTANCE, ADVANTAGES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BHAGWAT PURAN

It was Ved Vyas who edited the eighteen thousand shlokas of Bhagwat. This book destroys all your sins. It has twelve parts which are like kalpvraksh.

In the first skandh, the importance of Vedvyas


and characters of Pandavas are described by the dialogues between Suutji and Shaunakji. Then there is the story of Parikshit.
Next there is a Brahm Narad dialogue describing the avtaar of Bhagwan. Then the characteristics of Puraan are mentioned.

It also discusses the evolution of universe.( https://t.co/2aK1AZSC79 )

Next is the portrayal of Vidur and his dialogue with Maitreyji. Then there is a mention of Creation of universe by Brahma and the preachings of Sankhya by Kapil Muni.


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In the next section we find the character of King Priyavrat and his sons, different types of loks in this universe, and description of Narak. ( https://t.co/gmDTkLktKS )


In the sixth part we find the portrayal of Ajaamil ( https://t.co/LdVSSNspa2 ), Daksh and the birth of Marudgans( https://t.co/tecNidVckj )

In the seventh section we find the story of Prahlad and the description of Varnashram dharma. This section is based on karma vaasna.
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THREAD: Meditations on marriage metaphors in Ruth

The book of Ruth is, of course, a story about a beautiful marriage. But even before the courtship and the wedding and the important genealogy at the end, we find interesting language that is strikingly reminiscent of Genesis 2:24


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'Therefore a man shall leave [ื™ึทึฝืขึฒื–ึธื‘] his father and his mother and hold fast [ื•ึฐื“ึธื‘ึทึฃืง] to his wife, and they shall become one flesh.'

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We're basically fucked.

The tech world has gotten so huge, self-reinforcing, and insulated from reality they can no longer even vaguely look at themselves (and their actions) as others do. They just live on a different planet than most people.

Conversely, the average tech consumer doesn't understand the technology that has slowly taken over their lives, and their designated emissaries to figure it out--politicians, pundits, regulators, journalists--understand it barely better than they do, and have their own agendas.

To say more than generalities for a moment, here's what I think is likely the core problem.

Techies take weird, improbable visions, and make them realities: some BS pitch deck to a VC, mixed with money and people, really does turn into some novel thing.

Most people work inside a legacy industry that's evolved that way over time (usually for good reasons), and they think about the future via some analogy with their present (which is a function of a long-ago past). The interruption that tech will introduce is often hard to grasp.
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