#SLE_IanDunt 30 minutes to the start of our "Evening with I…

We will be live tweeting on this thread ...

Blimey; 19 pages of Zoom logins, 25 on each!

A crucial moment in the first page of the story of how to get back into the EU

Borders for goods: the Single Market removes checks on goods; relies a lot of people putting in the right information at the right time

If one piece of information, the whole thing is wrong.
Export using groupage; each shipment is on a lorry containing many shipments. Wrong documentation on one of them stops the whole thing.

CHIEF: UK customs system; old, dated, creaky
Safety regulation: complex and laborious
Documentation by custom brokers: not enough to go round
SBS: Health checks; documentation is hardest - export health certificate - relies on having enough vets - which we don't have

Westminster today: fishermen's protests; they are currently unable to sell their product.
Fish rot very quickly. Form filling is very difficult.
E.g. one lorry stopped because one lorry was 1.5kg out in weight.
Also, can't get the health certificates done.

Businesses are going to go bust.
Importers in Europe are looking for other sources of goods; they may never go back to UK supply.

Also IT systems, e.g. "monkfish tails" have no software code … so if that's what you sell, it's the end of your business

Many other problems in other businesses.
Covid reducing freight to about 10% of normal; when it gets back to normal rates, it's going to be chaos.

Fishing industry was firmly behind Brexit, so ironic that they are the first to suffer from it.
We shouldn't say "I told you so"; these are potential converts; convince them that they have been conned and betrayed.

Realistic option to persuade Labour to put another referendum into the 2023 manifesto
Tories want a culture war; Starmer needs to avoid that. So he needs to suppress talk of rejoin right now. For now, build better relations step by step.
Aim to get back in by 2030.

Heart: show what's going wrong; get the narrative, the storyline of Britain as an open place
Make the case that business is being strangled
Spirit: encourage people to feel European

Questions "... what the hell do we …"; brilliant book - how does it feel to be so right!
A: Plenty of stuff that was missed out; it was the result of talking to experts!

Q: does Brexit mean that the breakup of the UK is inevitable?
A: nothing is inevitable. But we are now a separate territory to NI. Problem for Scottish independence: problems with Brexit shows what could happen of Scotland separates.

Q: what was the biggest lie that was told!
A: So many to choose from! How about: "reduction of red tape"? "No border in the Irish Sea?"; had signed a document that said the opposite!

Q: Europeans in the UK: leave or stay?
A: I love the UK, one of the most diverse populations in the World. Would not say to give the anti-immigration people the satisfaction of succeeding.

Q: Will London stay as the number-1 financial centre?
A: Yes, London's resources mean it will stay as world number 1

Q: future relationship with America?
A: Biden will continue to consider the UK as very important. Have lost some of the special relationship; done for insane reasons. Fawned over Trump; went down v badly with the Democrats.

Q: any benefits of Brexit?
A: Not many. Has quelled Euroscepticism in the rest of Europe. There are some EU policies that aren't good, e.g. CAP. But these are miniscule.
Britain was part of a movement to reduce the chance of war by working together.

Q: Polexit: what should Polish Remainers do, which we should have done here?
A: 2016 campaign had no heart. Failed to see that the electoral dynamics were different. Must fight with heart!

Q: Root causes; what can we do to fix? Pick one;
A: Electoral reform; 2019; more votes for parties that wanted another referendum; FPTP causes grotesque, arbitrary outcomes. Need electoral reform more than anything else, particularly if Scotland leaves.

Q: How would an "anti-UKIP" fare?
A: Not bad; wouldn't win though. Lib Dem position strange.
Needs an outcome of progressive internationalism.

Q: Can we start breaking into our Brexit stockpiles now?
A: Tinned foods etc. are OK. Fresh produce is the problem. But you can't stockpile them! Some drugs (medicines) could be problematic.

Q: How would you vote if in Scotland to independence?
A: Can't answer that; hard to connect to his own national sense. Completely understands why Scots would want to leave.

Q: Seeing effects with fish; what next?
A: Lorry park in Kent; biggest danger is that hauliers simply won't come here. Most are from eastern Europe; they won't have enough financial incentive.
UK not doing checks for 6 months. But Dover-Calais will clog up and go terribly wrong.