BC BREXIT
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

#SLE_IanDunt 30 minutes to the start of our "Evening with Ian Dunt". Information here: https://t.co/9bLxOtCr56
Log-in tickets from https://t.co/iKcwmQh7gZ. See you soon!

 We will be live tweeting on this thread ...
Blimey; 19 pages of Zoom logins, 25 on each!
A crucial moment in the first page of the story of how to get back into the EU
Borders for goods: the Single Market removes checks on goods; relies a lot of people putting in the right information at the right time
If one piece of information, the whole thing is wrong.
Export using groupage; each shipment is on a lorry containing many shipments. Wrong documentation on one of them stops the whole thing.
CHIEF: UK customs system; old, dated, creaky
Safety regulation: complex and laborious
Documentation by custom brokers: not enough to go round
SBS: Health checks; documentation is hardest - export health certificate - relies on having enough vets - which we don't have
Westminster today: fishermen's protests; they are currently unable to sell their product.
Fish rot very quickly. Form filling is very difficult.
E.g. one lorry stopped because one lorry was 1.5kg out in weight.
Also, can't get the health certificates done.
Businesses are going to go bust.
Importers in Europe are looking for other sources of goods; they may never go back to UK supply.
Also IT systems, e.g. "monkfish tails" have no software code … so if that's what you sell, it's the end of your business
Many other problems in other businesses.
Covid reducing freight to about 10% of normal; when it gets back to normal rates, it's going to be chaos.
Fishing industry was firmly behind Brexit, so ironic that they are the first to suffer from it.
We shouldn't say "I told you so"; these are potential converts; convince them that they have been conned and betrayed.
Realistic option to persuade Labour to put another referendum into the 2023 manifesto
Tories want a culture war; Starmer needs to avoid that. So he needs to suppress talk of rejoin right now. For now, build better relations step by step.
Aim to get back in by 2030.
Heart: show what's going wrong; get the narrative, the storyline of Britain as an open place
Make the case that business is being strangled
Spirit: encourage people to feel European
Questions "... what the hell do we …"; brilliant book - how does it feel to be so right!
A: Plenty of stuff that was missed out; it was the result of talking to experts!
Q: does Brexit mean that the breakup of the UK is inevitable?
A: nothing is inevitable. But we are now a separate territory to NI. Problem for Scottish independence: problems with Brexit shows what could happen of Scotland separates.
Q: what was the biggest lie that was told!
A: So many to choose from! How about: "reduction of red tape"? "No border in the Irish Sea?"; had signed a document that said the opposite!
Q: Europeans in the UK: leave or stay?
A: I love the UK, one of the most diverse populations in the World. Would not say to give the anti-immigration people the satisfaction of succeeding.
Q: Will London stay as the number-1 financial centre?
A: Yes, London's resources mean it will stay as world number 1
Q: future relationship with America?
A: Biden will continue to consider the UK as very important. Have lost some of the special relationship; done for insane reasons. Fawned over Trump; went down v badly with the Democrats.
Q: any benefits of Brexit?
A: Not many. Has quelled Euroscepticism in the rest of Europe. There are some EU policies that aren't good, e.g. CAP. But these are miniscule.
Britain was part of a movement to reduce the chance of war by working together.
Q: Polexit: what should Polish Remainers do, which we should have done here?
A: 2016 campaign had no heart. Failed to see that the electoral dynamics were different. Must fight with heart!
Q: Root causes; what can we do to fix? Pick one;
A: Electoral reform; 2019; more votes for parties that wanted another referendum; FPTP causes grotesque, arbitrary outcomes. Need electoral reform more than anything else, particularly if Scotland leaves.
Q: How would an "anti-UKIP" fare?
A: Not bad; wouldn't win though. Lib Dem position strange.
Needs an outcome of progressive internationalism.
Q: Can we start breaking into our Brexit stockpiles now?
A: Tinned foods etc. are OK. Fresh produce is the problem. But you can't stockpile them! Some drugs (medicines) could be problematic.
Q: How would you vote if in Scotland to independence?
A: Can't answer that; hard to connect to his own national sense. Completely understands why Scots would want to leave.
Q: Seeing effects with fish; what next?
A: Lorry park in Kent; biggest danger is that hauliers simply won't come here. Most are from eastern Europe; they won't have enough financial incentive.
UK not doing checks for 6 months. But Dover-Calais will clog up and go terribly wrong.

More from Brexit

Anton Spisak
Anton Spisak
@AntonSpisak
Amid all the announcements today, it's easy to overlook that the OBR has updated its scenario on a no-deal Brexit. It exposes an undeniably hard reality for the Govt that claims that the UK would "prosper mightily" under no-deal next year.

(Short thread)

1. Key chart: a no-deal/WTO/Australia-style Brexit would delay the point at which econ output regains its pre-virus peak by "almost a year to the third quarter of 2023."

In the upside scenario, this cross-over point could be at the start of 2022; in the downside, in 2025. Grim.


2. Next year, a no deal Brexit would reduce real GDP by around a further 2% - as a result of immediate disruption to the border and uncertainty facing businesses. That's on top of the Covid-related contraction.


3. While there's some short-term border disruption, most of the costs come in the medium term: from lost employment; productivity losses; lower business investment.

Exactly the opposite of what the Chancellor said to @AndrewMarr9 on Sunday.

4. Underneath these numbers, output would fall *below* the Covid levels for several key sectors: Manufacturing, professional services, financial services, retail, energy.

All trade intensive sectors that have been spared the same drop in output as the non-tradables this year.
BREXIT
DK *deep waist bows+appropriate physical distance*
DK *deep waist bows+ap...
@justadandak
1/7 My thoughts on what could happen within a decade after #Brexit with the formation of the #UnitedCelticNation as a new country:

2/7 After the #Brexit transition period ends on 31 Dec 2020, the Scottish Parliament will announce a new independent referendum (under a Section 30 order which the PM has to agree to - he won't - they will change their laws to enable them not to need his approval).

3/7 This new Scottish independent referendum will happen within the first 6/9 months of 2021 and result in the decision to leave the UK.

4/7 An application to rejoin the EU will happen immediately after the Scottish referendum result and within months the EU will accept Scotland back in (justified as 'the will of the people' plus how recent their exit was).

5/7 Within 3-5 years of #Brexit, Wales will also hold its own referendum on independence (fuelled by the decline in economy plus the example set by Scotland) and will also be successful. EU membership will also be sought and gained with an accelerated timescale within a year.
BREXIT
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John Lichfield
John Lichfield
@john_lichfield
Fish thread.
Having read the Brexit deal, I believe B. Johnson misled the nation on Thurs when he said Britain could catch “all the fish that it wants ” in UK waters in 5 years’ time. The clear presumption in the text is that EU fleets will have similar access after 2026.1/12

The UK fish industry will have to pay a high price in EU import tariffs if that access is withdrawn. Overall… the deal falls far short of the exaggerated “sea of opportunity” promises made to UK fishermen. 2/12

The headline quota compromise - reducing EU catches in the UK 200 mile zone by 25% over five and a half years – is balanced enough. But different fishers will study the small-print with delight OR anger. Some EU quotas will be cut more than others. 3/12

Fisheries, we were told, would be a big Brexit winner. No it won’t. On this deal, the UK industry will certainly lose more from Brexit (no more frictionless access to the EU market) than it gains (incremental, extra quotas over the next 5 years). 4/12

First…the length of the deal. The 5 and 1/2 years of cuts in EU quotas/increases in UK quotas, are laid out in annexes to the main treaty. The last column says “2026 onwards” In other words, the presumption is there will be no further cuts in EU quotas after that date. 5/12
BREXIT
The Troll Zoo
The Troll Zoo
@TrollZoo
1. This beautiful and thought provoking piece of 21st century art was shared widely in anti-EU Facebook groups, Twitter replies to journalists and elsewhere online, in 2016.

Is it an untrackable, untraceable, Cambridge Analytica-style, fake?


2. The design is obviously substandard, to be charitable .

But look a bit closer, it appears intentionally bad.

3. A lightning strike blended through a Union Jack is not the work of a beginner, in Photoshop.


4. Is it believable that a designer capable of creating that effect in Photoshop, would also be virtually illiterate?

Literate enough to spell “Sovereignty” correctly.


5. But not literate enough to spell “corrupt”.
BREXIT
Richard Wilson
Richard Wilson
@timomouse
A not-so-little thread on how post-Brexit work permit regulations will apply in Scottish football and why it’s, broadly, not a good thing...

1) Work permit calculations are based on the points formula from this site - https://t.co/sjqx8Df7Zg

As things stand, while this article deals with England, the system applies to Scotland also.

The goal is 15 points and the article shows various ways to get there. Essentially, play regularly internationally or in a top 5 league and you’re in. But read the article because it’s a bit trickier than that.

2) There are elements of this I’d dispute. For example, here’s the banding of leagues and, lower down, it’s an absolute mess - Denmark (ranked 14 in coefficient table) and Serbia (16) banded lower than Croatia (20), Greece (18) and Czechs (19)? It’s wholly random.


I get the point that leagues should be banded, but there doesn’t seem to have been loads of sense applied to how these things are actually banded, rather they’ve just shoved a bunch of leagues together and hoped for the best.
BREXIT

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#3/thread on Angkor wat

Christianity and islam may be the largest religion of today’s world but Sanatan dharm has the largest religious monument in the world in the form of Angkor wat. It is situated in combodia and spread across over 400 acres / 1.6 km².


It was listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1992, which encouraged an international effort to save the complex.
It was originally built as a Hindu temple dedicated to the god Vishnu. In Khmer, the Cambodian language, Angkor means "city" and Wat means "temple grounds".


So Angkor Wat means "Temple City". Its original name was Vrah Vishnuloka or Parama Vishnuloka, meaning the sacred dwelling of Vishnu in Sanskrit.
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Angkor Wat was initially designed and constructed in the first half of the 12th century, during the reign of Suryavarman II, as the king’s state temple and capital city. It was built without the aid of any machinery, as there was no machinery available at that time.


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Another aspect is that the five central towers of Angkor Wat symbolize the peaks of Mount Meru,
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Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel was previously CEO of bioMerieux in France from 07-10.

Alain Merieux, who owns bioMerieux, was instrumental in the creation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology P4 Lab.

The same people who helped create the virus, also helped to create the vaccines...


Moderna partnered with French Pasteur Institute in 2015 to develop mRNA vaccine technology.

Pasteur Institute partnered with the Wuhan P4 Laboratory in 2017 along with the Merieux Foundation to study emerging viruses...
https://t.co/yFsHwrNYaK
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Montagnier did extensive work with the Pasteur Institute in France which was partnered with the Wuhan P4.

Merieux Foundation & the Chinese government have worked together since 1965, and partnered to study emerging pathogens in Africa in 2015.

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Kate Julian
Kate Julian
@katejulian
1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

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Emma Hilton
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This is Kuinini ‘Nini’ Manumua, the woman who was ultimately displaced by inclusion of Laurel Hubbard.

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Andrew Chen
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👇 Thread. New deck getting published this week: "Consumer startups are awesome, and here's what I'm looking to invest in at Andreessen Horowitz." If you want to read it, subscribe to my newsletter here: https://t.co/262t8eh0wf


1/ A lot of new consumer technologies have been introduced to US households in the last 100 years. But it's taken many of them - like the telephone - more than 50 years to get to the majority of the US. Why is that?


2/ We had to literally teach people how to use phone. Which end goes to your mouth, which goes to your ear. Say "hello" when people call. The motivation of consumers to talk to their friends has always been there, but we had to teach the behavior


3/ If you compare phones to the latest technologies, there's been a huge shift. Things are being picked up much faster.


4/ Even while there's been all this innovation recently, physically speaking, we are still the same human beings from 100,000 years ago.
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