One of the root causes of the Govt's Brexit difficulties is that it has overpromised.

We can, it is said, reclaim our sovereignty, with the freedom to make our own rules, and, at the same time, retain many of the advantages of EU membership. 1/14

The reality is that we cannot.

Unless we agree to certain standards and rules (and there is scope to argue about which rules), there will be borders, and checks, and tariffs. 2/

There will always be a relationship between rights (eg tariff free access to EU/UK markets) and responsibilities (eg abiding by level-playing field commitments). 3/

A 'good' outcome for the UK, in the Govt's view, would involve access gains (eg fewer border checks) without corresponding obligations (or with weak, or difficult-to-enforce obligations). 4/

The chances of this sort of 'good' outcome are low. The EU looks likely, in the face of the threats in the Internal Market Bill and now the Finance Bill, to insist on rigorous governance provisions. [Also, such provisions are the foundation of the single market.] 5/

There are a lot of Brexiters in the media this week making points about sovereignty, and about how the EU has not come to terms with the UK's independence.

I have some questions, which it might well be fruitful to ask them. 1/9

1. How do you understand the concept of sovereignty? What are the circumstances in which you might agree to make binding commitments to other independent states or trading blocs? 2/

2. What sort of commitments are you prepared to make in order to get trade deals with other states/blocs? And, to what end (why not trade on Australian-style terms with the wider world)? 3/

3. Do you accept that the EU has the right to impose its own rules as a condition for access to its market? Given the UK's involvement in the single market, and in the creation of its regulatory infrastructure, this feature should not come as a surprise. 4/

4. Do you accept that there is a need for borders (which were not needed while the UK was part of the single market) between states/blocs with different regulatory regimes? 5/

The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.

Thread. 1/16

This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood.

Its policies on the 2 big issues of the day - Brexit and COVID-19 - have not been successful.

We have not secured an easy trade deal with the UK and are facing a very hard Brexit, deal or no deal.

Both deaths and the economic damage from the virus are world-beating. 3/

What is (to me) interesting, and I think unusual, is that the loudest voices against the Govt's position, come not from the Labour party and other opposition parties; but from the fringes of the Conservative party (backed by many in the media). 4/

The possibly emerging deal with the EU is attacked not for the economic damage it will cause and the barriers it will create for people and business, but on the grounds that it represents an unconscionable imposition on the UK's sovereignty. 5/